TRADE THE FED 0722 We are reaching FED PIVOT

TACTICAL VIEW · 可能交易路径

EN: Two branches, conditioned on the July 28–29 decision. Neither is a forecast — both are structural reads on how each outcome propagates, for the reader to weigh against their own risk framework.

中文: 以下两条路径以7月28–29日议息结果为条件展开，并非预测，而是对两种结果各自传导逻辑的结构性梳理，供读者结合自身风险框架自行判断。

ASSET 资产: Front-end rates 短端利率

If Hike (~25%) 若加息: Repricing higher, curve bear-flattens near-term 短端利率上修，曲线短线趋平

If Hold (~75%) 若按兵不动: Anchored at 3.50–3.75%, fiscal supply still pressures long end 锚定于3.50–3.75%，长端仍受发债压力

ASSET 资产: USD (DXY) 美元指数

If Hike (~25%) 若加息: Near-term bid on hawkish surprise 鹰派意外，短线走强

If Hold (~75%) 若按兵不动: Firm-to-neutral; structural debt trajectory remains the medium-term headwind 偏稳偏中性；中期仍受债务轨迹压制

ASSET 资产: Gold 黄金

If Hike (~25%) 若加息: Real-yield headwind on the print, but fiscal/political risk premium likely buys the dip 实际利率短线承压，但财政与政治风险溢价或支撑逢低买盘

If Hold (~75%) 若按兵不动: Real-rate cap stays soft; debt/political overhang supportive 实际利率上限偏软，债务与政治风险持续支撑

ASSET 资产: Rate-sensitive equities 利率敏感型股票

If Hike (~25%) 若加息: Utilities, REITs, small-caps at risk 公用事业、REITs、小盘股承压

If Hold (~75%) 若按兵不动: Range-bound; mega-cap quality more resilient than duration-heavy sectors 区间震荡；大盘龙头股韧性优于久期敏感板块

WHAT INVALIDATES THIS 失效条件 (applies to both branches): A negotiated tariff rollback or a sharp CPI/PCE reversal before Jul 28 changes both branches — watch the next print before the meeting 若在7月28日前关税谈判出现实质性回调，或CPI/PCE大幅反转，两条路径均需重新评估——重点关注会前最新数据

Scenario mapping for research purposes only, not personalized investment advice; conditioned entirely on the sourced data above. 以上情景推演仅供研究参考，非个性化投资建议，完全基于前文已核实数据展开。