Macro Note 06 霍尔木兹交易playbook

Ztrader Tactical Strategy Sheet

Oil Shock Regime – Tactical Playbook

Date: 18 Mar 2026

(Institutional macro positioning sheet — informational)

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Core Macro State

先给真正交易员看的第一段：

State of market

Primary driver: Energy supply shock

Macro implication: Inflation repricing risk

Policy impact: Fed easing path delayed

Trading regime: Commodity volatility regime

一句话：

This is not a growth market. This is a supply shock market.

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Regime Map

真正 desk 会先定 regime：

Current regime:

SUPPLY SHOCK REGIME

Characteristics:

Commodity leadership Volatility elevated Rates sticky Equity fragile Dollar supported

Transition risk：

如果 Brent >105：

可能进入：

stagflation pricing phase

这是关键。

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Cross Asset Tactical Map

真正 macro desk 是这样看市场：

Driver hierarchy:

Oil → Inflation expectations → Fed path → Yields → Equity valuation

不是：

earnings first

而是：

energy first

这才是现在结构。

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Ztrader Tactical Table (GSStyle)

ID Asset View Rationale Trade Path 01 WTI Oil Bullish volatility Supply risk repricing Buy dips 94-96 02 Brent Structural bid Hormuz risk premium Long calendar spreads 03 Gold Tactical long War hedge + inflation Buy 4950 04 US10Y Higher for longer Oil delays cuts Short aggressive easing 05 SPX Range Energy tax effect Sell rallies 06 Energy equities Outperform Commodity leadership Long XLE 07 VIX Supported Hedging demand Long vol dips 08 USD Supported Risk hedge Long vs JPY 09 Tech Fragile Rate sensitivity Underweight 10 Credit Watch spreads Energy shock risk Avoid HY beta

这才是：

真正 institutional sheet

不是媒体那种：

“市场可能波动”

那种是写给客户看的，不是写给交易员看的。

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Technical Execution Levels

真正 desk 必写：

Execution zones。

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Oil (WTI)

Structure:

Trend:

Higher highs structure

Support:

94 92

Resistance:

100 106

Execution：

Buy:

94-96

Stop:

Below 92

Target:

105+

CTA logic：

Trend intact until structure breaks.

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Gold

Structure:

Support:

4950 4900

Resistance:

5050 5150

Execution：

Entry:

4950 zone

Stop:

Below 4900

Target:

5100+

Macro catalyst：

Oil spike continuation。

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US10Y Yield

Structure：

Key levels:

4.10 support 4.30 resistance

Trading logic：

Above 4.30:

Cuts repricing

Below 4.10:

Growth scare

Expression：

Short rate cuts narrative。

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SPX

Structure：

Range regime:

6500 support 6800 resistance

Execution：

Sell:

6750-6800

Buy:

6500 reaction only

This is not breakout market.

This is:

headline driven range

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Institutional Positioning Insight

现在机构在干嘛：

不是追涨：

是在买 protection。

结构：

Positioning:

Long vol Long commodities Neutral equities Defensive rotation

典型：

Late cycle behavior。

不是 early bull。

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Best Expression Trades

真正 desk 会写：

Expression trades。

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Trade 1 — Oil risk premium

Expression：

Long Brent spreads Long front volatility

Logic：

Supply shock still underpriced。

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Trade 2 — Inflation hedge

Expression：

Long gold Long energy

Logic：

Energy → inflation transmission。

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Trade 3 — Policy repricing

Expression：

Short aggressive Fed cuts

Logic：

Oil delays easing cycle。

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Trade 4 — Equity hedge

Expression：

Sell index rallies Buy protection

Market not priced for supply shock.

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Risk Triggers

真正交易员只看：

Trigger list。

Primary triggers:

Hormuz escalation SPR actions OPEC response Fed tone shift

Hierarchy：

Oil headlines → Fed repricing → Equity move

记住：

顺序不能错。

否则交易逻辑全错。

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Ztrader Trader Summary

真正 desk summary只写这个：

Market state:

Commodity driven

Trading state:

Defensive

Positioning state:

Hedged

Opportunity:

Oil volatility Energy beta Gold tactical

最终一句：

Trade commodities. Respect oil. Fade equity strength.

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Ztrader Execution Bias

给你按你自己的系统讲：

今天其实是：

Dual-Blade CTA perfect environment

趋势刀：

Oil uptrend confirmed

时间刀：

Headline volatility windows

所以：

CTA应该：

Allow:

Commodity longs

Avoid:

Equity chasing

Focus:

Volatility entries

这才是：

小资金 survival trading。

不是预测市场。

是：

respecting regime