arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
We present a simple unifying treatment of a broad class of applications from statistical mechanics, econometrics, mathematical finance, and insurance mathematics, where (possibly subordinated) Lévy noise arises as a scaling limit of some form of continuous-time random walk (CTRW). For each application, it is natural to rely on weak convergence results for stochastic integrals on Skorokhod space in Skorokhod's J1 or M…
Andreas Søjmark, Fabrice Wunderlich
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2020
We propose a class of stochastic models for a dynamics of limit order book with different type of liquidities. Within this class of models we study the one where a spread decreases uniformly, belonging to the class of processes known as a population processes with uniform catastrophes. The law of large numbers (LLN), central limit theorem (CLT) and large deviations (LD) are proved for our model with uniform catastrop…
Helder Rojas, Artem Logachov, Anatoly Yambartsev
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether volatility of an asset follows a standard semimartingale process, with paths of finite quadratic variation, or a rough process with paths of infinite quadratic variation. The test utilizes the fact that volatility is rough if and only if volatility increments are negatively autocorrelated at high frequencies. It is based on the sample autocovariance of increments o…
Carsten H. Chong, Viktor Todorov
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
We study small-time central limit theorems for stochastic Volterra integral equations with Hölder continuous coefficients and general locally square integrable Volterra kernels. We prove the convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions, a functional CLT, and limit theorems for smooth transformations of the process, which covers a large class of Volterra kernels that includes rough models based on Riemann-Liouv…
Martin Friesen, Stefan Gerhold, Kristof Wiedermann
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
This paper describes the Difference-of-Log-Normals (DLN) distribution. A companion paper makes the case that the DLN is a fundamental distribution in nature, and shows how a simple application of the CLT gives rise to the DLN in many disparate phenomena. Here, I characterize its PDF, CDF, moments, and parameter estimators; generalize it to N-dimensions using spherical distribution theory; describe methods to deal wit…
Robert Parham
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2021
We develop a novel Monte Carlo algorithm for the vector consisting of the supremum, the time at which the supremum is attained and the position at a given (constant) time of an exponentially tempered Lévy process. The algorithm, based on the increments of the process without tempering, converges geometrically fast (as a function of the computational cost) for discontinuous and locally Lipschitz functions of the vecto…
Jorge Ignacio González Cázares, Aleksandar Mijatović
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2017
We consider rough stochastic volatility models where the driving noise of volatility has fractional scaling, in the "rough" regime of Hurst parameter $H < 1/2$. This regime recently attracted a lot of attention both from the statistical and option pricing point of view. With focus on the latter, we sharpen the large deviation results of Forde-Zhang (2017) in a way that allows us to zoom-in around the money while main…
Christian Bayer, Peter K. Friz, Archil Gulisashvili, Blanka Horvath, Benjamin Stemper
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2017
Stochastic gradient descent in continuous time (SGDCT) provides a computationally efficient method for the statistical learning of continuous-time models, which are widely used in science, engineering, and finance. The SGDCT algorithm follows a (noisy) descent direction along a continuous stream of data. The parameter updates occur in continuous time and satisfy a stochastic differential equation. This paper analyzes…
Justin Sirignano, Konstantinos Spiliopoulos
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2015
This paper studies convergence properties of multivariate distributions constructed by endowing empirical margins with a copula. This setting includes Latin Hypercube Sampling with dependence, also known as the Iman--Conover method. The primary question addressed here is the convergence of the component sum, which is relevant to risk aggregation in insurance and finance. This paper shows that a CLT for the aggregated…
Georg Mainik
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2013
Basel II and Solvency 2 both use the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the risk measure to compute the Capital Requirements. In practice, to calibrate the VaR, a normal approximation is often chosen for the unknown distribution of the yearly log returns of financial assets. This is usually justified by the use of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT), when assuming aggregation of independent and identically distributed (iid) observat…
Marie Kratz
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2006
In this paper we consider two semimartingales driven by diffusions and jumps. We allow both for finite activity and for infinite activity jump components. Given discrete observations we disentangle the {\it integrated covariation} (the covariation between the two diffusion parts, indicated by IC) from the co-jumps. This has important applications to multiple assets price modeling for forecasting, option pricing, risk…
Fabio Gobbi, Cecilia Mancini
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
In this paper, we consider pricing of European options and spread options for Hawkes-based model for the limit order book. We introduce multivariate Hawkes process and the multivariable general compound Hawkes process. Exponential multivariate general compound Hawkes processes and limit theorems for them, namely, LLN and FCLT, are considered then. We also consider a special case of one-dimensional EMGCHP and its limi…
Qi Guo, Anatoliy Swishchuk, Bruno Rémillard
arXiv · arXiv · 2020
In this paper, we focus on a new generalization of multivariate general compound Hawkes process (MGCHP), which we referred to as the multivariate general compound point process (MGCPP). Namely, we applied a multivariate point process to model the order flow instead of the Hawkes process. Law of large numbers (LLN) and two functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) for the MGCPP were proved in this work. Applications o…
Qi Guo, Bruno Remillard, Anatoliy Swishchuk
arXiv · arXiv · 2018
In this paper, we study various new Hawkes processes. Specifically, we construct general compound Hawkes processes and investigate their properties in limit order books. With regards to these general compound Hawkes processes, we prove a Law of Large Numbers (LLN) and a Functional Central Limit Theorems (FCLT) for several specific variations. We apply several of these FCLTs to limit order books to study the link betw…
Anatoliy Swishchuk, Aiden Huffman