arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Leveraged ETFs (L-ETFs) are exchange-traded funds that achieve price movements several times greater than an index by holding index-linked futures such as Nikkei Stock Average Index futures. It is known that when the price of an L-ETF falls, the L-ETF uses the liquidity of futures to limit the decline through arbitrage trading. Conversely, when the price of a futures contract falls, the futures contract uses the liqu…
Ryuki Hayase, Takanobu Mizuta, Isao Yagi
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Accurately measuring portfolio similarity is critical for a wide range of financial applications, including Exchange-traded Fund (ETF) recommendation, portfolio trading, and risk alignment. Existing similarity measures often rely on exact asset overlap or static distance metrics, which fail to capture similarities among the constituents (e.g., securities within the portfolio) as well as nuanced relationships between …
Mingshu Li, Dhruv Desai, Jerinsh Jeyapaulraj, Philip Sommer, Riya Jain
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Taiwan's central role in global semiconductor manufacturing exposes Taiwan-related ETFs to technology concentration, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply-chain disruptions, resulting in return distributions characterized by heavy tails, volatility clustering, and asymmetric responses to negative shocks. This paper analyzes thirty U.S.-listed ETFs with Taiwan exposure from February 2015 to February 2025 using tail-ris…
Ting-Jung Lee, Abootaleb Shirvani, Farzana Afroz, Svetlozar T. Rachev, Frank J. Fabozzi
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This study explores the use of Transformer-based models to predict both covariance and semi-covariance matrices for ETF portfolio optimization. Traditional portfolio optimization techniques often rely on static covariance estimates or impose strict model assumptions, which may fail to capture the dynamic and non-linear nature of market fluctuations. Our approach leverages the power of Transformer models to generate a…
Jiahao Zhu, Hengzhi Wu
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This study examines the performance of a volatility-based strategy using Chinese equity index ETF options. Initially successful, the strategy's effectiveness waned post-2018. By integrating GARCH models for volatility forecasting, the strategy's positions and exposures are dynamically adjusted. The results indicate that such an approach can enhance returns in volatile markets, suggesting potential for refined trading…
Peng Yifeng
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
This report aims to investigate the effectiveness of using internal bar strength (IBS) as a key indicator for trading country exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The study uses a quantitative approach to analyze historical price data for a bucket of country ETFs over a period of 10 years and uses the idea of Mean Reversion to create a profitable trading strategy. Our findings suggest that IBS can be a useful technical indi…
Aditya Pandey, Kunal Joshi
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
Recently, the application of advanced machine learning methods for asset management has become one of the most intriguing topics. Unfortunately, the application of these methods, such as deep neural networks, is difficult due to the data shortage problem. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach using neural networks to construct a portfolio of exchange traded funds (ETFs) based on the financial statement d…
Jinho Lee, Sungwoo Park, Jungyu Ahn, Jonghun Kwak
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
This paper develops a deep learning-based econometric methodology to determine the causality of the financial time series. This method is applied to the imbalances in daily transactions in individual stocks, as well as the ETFs reported to SEC with a nanosecond time stamp. Based on our method, we conclude that transaction imbalances of ETFs alone are more informative than the transaction imbalances in the entire mark…
Peter Lerner
arXiv · arXiv · 2020
A leveraged ETF is a fund aimed at achieving a rate of return several times greater than that of the underlying asset such as Nikkei 225 futures. Recently, it has been suggested that rebalancing trades of a leveraged ETF may destabilize the financial markets. An empirical study using an agent-based simulation indicated that a rebalancing trade strategy could affect the price formation of an underlying asset market. H…
Isao Yagi, Shunya Maruyama, Takanobu Mizuta
arXiv · arXiv · 2020
In this paper, we study the statistical properties of the moneyness scaling transformation by Leung and Sircar (2015). This transformation adjusts the moneyness coordinate of the implied volatility smile in an attempt to remove the discrepancy between the IV smiles for levered and unlevered ETF options. We construct bootstrap uniform confidence bands which indicate that the implied volatility smiles are statistically…
Sergey Nasekin, Wolfgang Karl Härdle
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
Commodity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a significant part of the rapidly growing ETF market. They have become popular in recent years as they provide investors access to a great variety of commodities, ranging from precious metals to building materials, and from oil and gas to agricultural products. In this article, we analyze the tracking performance of commodity leveraged ETFs and discuss the associated trading…
Kevin Guo, Tim Leung
arXiv · arXiv · 2014
The growth of the exhange-traded fund (ETF) industry has given rise to the trading of options written on ETFs and their leveraged counterparts {(LETFs)}. We study the relationship between the ETF and LETF implied volatility surfaces when the underlying ETF is modeled by a general class of local-stochastic volatility models. A closed-form approximation for prices is derived for European-style options whose payoff depe…
Tim Leung, Matthew Lorig, Andrea Pascucci
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We test whether large language models (LLMs) add value in commodity portfolio construction when the information set and implementation rules are held fixed across strategies. A Hawkish Agent (inflation-tightening prior), a Dovish Agent (growth-easing prior), a Debate Agent, and a deterministic z-score Rule Agent each receive identical FRED macro z-scores and route their tilt signals through the same portfolio engine.…
Yiqing Wang, Dehao Dai, Ding Ma, Kerui Geng
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
We investigate the relative information efficiency of financial markets by measuring the entropy of the time series of high frequency data. Our tool to measure efficiency is the Shannon entropy, applied to 2-symbol and 3-symbol discretisations of the data. Analysing 1-minute and 5-minute price time series of 55 Exchange Traded Funds traded at the New York Stock Exchange, we develop a methodology to isolate true ineff…
Lucio Maria Calcagnile, Fulvio Corsi, Stefano Marmi
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Hit ratio is a common service metric for electronic corporate bond market making, but raw hit-ratio targets can be economically misleading when client flow has heterogeneous adverse-selection content. This paper extends a stochastic-control framework for OTC bond RFQ market making with hit-ratio constraints by replacing raw hit ratio with a residual-quality-adjusted hit ratio. The key modelling distinction is that ad…
Bouna Niang
arXiv · arXiv · 2018
The composition of natural liquidity has been changing over time. An analysis of intraday volumes for the S&P500 constituent stocks illustrates that (i) volume surprises, i.e., deviations from their respective forecasts, are correlated across stocks, and (ii) this correlation increases during the last few hours of the trading session. These observations could be attributed, in part, to the prevalence of portfolio tra…
Seungki Min, Costis Maglaras, Ciamac C. Moallemi
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
The stability of markets hosting leveraged exchange-traded products is governed not by any single product's loop gain but by the spectral radius of a loop-gain matrix, and scalar per-product monitoring underestimates system feedback by construction. Recent work measures the self-reinforcement of a leveraged fund's daily close rebalancing through a scalar loop gain and treats cross-asset spillovers as bias. We model c…
Jihwan Woo
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
At 15-minute horizons, directional mean reversion is far stronger and more pervasive in cryptocurrency markets than in US equities: scored under one matched, strictly out-of-sample protocol, 90% of 183 Binance pairs carry significant directional reversal against 2.7% of 187 US stocks and ETFs, in every focal coin-year since 2021. The signal lives in signs, not magnitudes: lag-one return autocorrelation is near zero o…
Nadav A. Kitron, Jonathan M. Wengrowicz