arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Building event-conditioned market models requires separating macro-event labels from persistent microstructure state. We study this distinction in Binance BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT futures from 2023-2026, combining top-20 L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows. We define a supervised discrete L2 liquidity-state transition task, distinct from latent-regime detection and price-direction prediction, a…
Joohyoung Jeon
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
Blockchain-based decentralised lending is a rapidly growing and evolving alternative to traditional lending, but it poses new risks. To mitigate these risks, lending protocols have integrated automated risk management tools into their smart contracts. However, the effectiveness of the latest risk management features introduced in the most recent versions of these lending protocols is understudied. To close this gap, …
Erum Iftikhar, Wei Wei, John Cartlidge
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
We introduce a unified framework for rapid, large-scale portfolio optimization that incorporates both shrinkage and regularization techniques. This framework addresses multiple objectives, including minimum variance, mean-variance, and the maximum Sharpe ratio, and also adapts to various portfolio weight constraints. For each optimization scenario, we detail the translation into the corresponding quadratic programmin…
Weichuan Deng, Pawel Polak, Abolfazl Safikhani, Ronakdilip Shah
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Dynamic-weight AMMs (aka Temporal Function Market Makers, TFMMs) implement algorithmic asset allocation, analogous to index or smart beta funds, by continuously updating pools' weights. A strategy updates target weights over time, and arbitrageurs trade the pool back toward those weights. This creates a sequence of small, predictable mispricings that grow until taken, effectively executing rebalances as a series of D…
Matthew Willetts, Christian Harrington
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
We study the evolution of transaction speed and fees from January 2024 through March 2026, comparing Ethereum Mainnet and its Layer 2 (L2) networks, as well as Solana and Polygon. Ethereum has undergone upgrades that have increased block size and blob count. These upgrades have doubled transactions per second (TPS) on both the Mainnet and the L2 networks. Mainnet median fees have fallen from over \$2 to under \$0.02,…
Meghan Ambrosia, Bruce Mizrach
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Standard macroeconomic frameworks have correctly identified Japan's government debt - now exceeding 240% of GDP - as carrying substantial fiscal risk. Yet FRED data from 2013 to 2026 present an empirical record inviting a complementary perspective: debt ratios have stabilized, nominal GDP has exceeded 670 trillion yen (SAAR), and unemployment has remained near 2.6-2.7%. This paper formalizes these channels through th…
Hirofumi Wakimoto
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
We formulate a dynamic reinsurance problem in which the insurer seeks to control the terminal distribution of its surplus while minimizing the L2-norm of the ceded risk. Using techniques from martingale optimal transport, we show that, under suitable assumptions, the problem admits a tractable solution analogous to the Bass martingale. We first consider the case where the insurer wants to match a given terminal distr…
Beatrice Acciaio, Brandon Garcia Flores, Antonio Marini, Gudmund Pammer
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
The lifted Heston model is a stochastic volatility model emerging as a Markovian lift of the rough Heston model and the class of rough volatility processes. The model encodes the path dependency of volatility on a set of N square-root state processes driven by a common stochastic factor. While the system is Markovian, simulation schemes such as the Euler scheme exist, but require a small-step, multidimensional simula…
Nicola F. Zaugg, Lech A. Grzelak
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
We study the truncation error of the COS method and give simple, verifiable conditions that guarantee convergence. In one dimension, COS is admissible when the density belongs to both L1 and L2 and has a finite weighted L2 moment of order strictly greater than one. We extend the result to multiple dimensions by requiring the moment order to exceed the dimension. These conditions enlarge the class of densities covered…
Qinling Wang, Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
In portfolio risk minimization, the inverse covariance matrix of returns is often unknown and has to be estimated in practice. This inverse covariance matrix also prescribes the hedge trades in which a stock is hedged by all the other stocks in the portfolio. In practice with finite samples, however, multicollinearity gives rise to considerable estimation errors, making the hedge trades too unstable and unreliable fo…
Lim Hao Shen Keith
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
Prediction of stock prices has been a crucial and challenging task, especially in the case of highly volatile digital currencies such as Bitcoin. This research examineS the potential of using neural network models, namely LSTMs and GRUs, to forecast Bitcoin's price movements. We employ five-fold cross-validation to enhance generalization and utilize L2 regularization to reduce overfitting and noise. Our study demonst…
Ali Mohammadjafari
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
The most commonly used form of regularization typically involves defining the penalty function as a L1 or L2 norm. However, numerous alternative approaches remain untested in practical applications. In this study, we apply ten different penalty functions to predict electricity prices and evaluate their performance under two different model structures and in two distinct electricity markets. The study reveals that LQ …
Bartosz Uniejewski
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
In this note, we illustrate the computation of the approximation of the supply curves using a one-step basis. We derive the expression for the L2 approximation and propose a procedure for the selection of nodes of the approximation. We illustrate the use of this approach with three large sets of bid curves from European electricity markets.
Andres M. Alonso, Zehang Li
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
This paper addresses the lack of research on quantifying Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) on Ethereum Layer 2 networks (L2s). Our findings reveal a substantial amount of MEV to be extracted on L2s, particularly on Polygon, with a lower bound of $213 million surpassing previous estimates. We observe that the majority of detected MEV on L2s consists of arbitrage opportunities, as liquidations are rare. These results emp…
Arthur Bagourd, Luca Georges Francois
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2019
This paper considers improved forecasting in possibly nonlinear dynamic settings, with high-dimension predictors ("big data" environments). To overcome the curse of dimensionality and manage data and model complexity, we examine shrinkage estimation of a back-propagation algorithm of a deep neural net with skip-layer connections. We expressly include both linear and nonlinear components. This is a high-dimensional le…
Ali Habibnia, Esfandiar Maasoumi
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2013
In this paper we complete and extend our previous work on stochastic control applied to high frequency market-making with inventory constraints and directional bets. Our new model admits several state variables (e.g. market spread, stochastic volatility and intensities of market orders) provided the full system is Markov. The solution of the corresponding HJB equation is exact in the case of zero inventory risk. The …
Pietro Fodra, Mauricio Labadie
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2011
The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since. We have developed an integral technique similar to CUSUM using an empirical model quantitatively linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labour …
Oleg Kitov, Ivan Kitov
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2009
The optimization of large portfolios displays an inherent instability to estimation error. This poses a fundamental problem, because solutions that are not stable under sample fluctuations may look optimal for a given sample, but are, in effect, very far from optimal with respect to the average risk. In this paper, we approach the problem from the point of view of statistical learning theory. The occurrence of the in…
Susanne Still, Imre Kondor