arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
The financial markets, which involve more than $90 trillion market capitals, attract the attention of innumerable investors around the world. Recently, reinforcement learning in financial markets (FinRL) has emerged as a promising direction to train agents for making profitable investment decisions. However, the evaluation of most FinRL methods only focuses on profit-related measures and ignores many critical axes, w…
Shuo Sun, Molei Qin, Xinrun Wang, Bo An
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
This study develops and empirically validates a Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework for stock price prediction across heterogeneous volatility regimes using real market data. The proposed model combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) optimized for high-volatility stocks with a linear regression model tailored to stable equities. A volatility-aware gating mechanism dynamically weights the contributions of each expert…
Diego Vallarino
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
Recent advances in deep learning and large language models (LLMs) have facilitated the deployment of the mixture-of-experts (MoE) mechanism in the stock investment domain. While these models have demonstrated promising trading performance, they are often unimodal, neglecting the wealth of information available in other modalities, such as textual data. Moreover, the traditional neural network-based router selection m…
Kuan-Ming Liu, Ming-Chih Lo
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
We examine whether regime-conditioned generative scenarios combined with a convex CVaR allocator improve portfolio decisions under regime shifts. We present MARCD, a generative-to-decision framework with: (i) a Gaussian HMM to infer latent regimes; (ii) a diffusion generator that produces regime-conditioned scenarios; (iii) signal extraction via blended, shrunk moments; and (iv) a governed CVaR epigraph quadratic pro…
Ali Atiah Alzahrani
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is crucial for effective decision-making in power trading on the spot market. While recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have inspired the development of numerous time series foundation models (TSFMs) for time series forecasting, their effectiveness in EPF remains uncertain. To address this gap, we bench…
Timothée Hornek Amir Sartipi, Igor Tchappi, Gilbert Fridgen
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the financial domain has opened new avenues for quantitative trading, particularly through the use of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the challenge of effectively synthesizing insights from diverse data sources and integrating both structured and unstructured data persists. This paper presents TradeExpert, a novel framework that employs a mix of experts (MoE) …
Qianggang Ding, Haochen Shi, Jiadong Guo, Bang Liu
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
This study evaluates the effectiveness of a Mixture of Experts (MoE) model for stock price prediction by comparing it to a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and a linear regression model. The MoE framework combines an RNN for volatile stocks and a linear model for stable stocks, dynamically adjusting the weight of each model through a gating network. Results indicate that the MoE approach significantly improves predicti…
Diego Vallarino
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
We propose MoE-F - a formalized mechanism for combining $N$ pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for online time-series prediction by adaptively forecasting the best weighting of LLM predictions at every time step. Our mechanism leverages the conditional information in each expert's running performance to forecast the best combination of LLMs for predicting the time series in its next step. Diverging from static …
Raeid Saqur, Anastasis Kratsios, Florian Krach, Yannick Limmer, Jacob-Junqi Tian
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are computationally infeasible for realistic portfolios. Factor models, though efficient, primarily use static factor loadings, failing to capture evolving volatility co-movements when they ar…
Duo Zhang, Jiayu Li, Junyi Mo, Elynn Chen
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems serve as the digital backbone of modern financial institutions, yet they continue to rely on static, rule-based workflows that limit adaptability, scalability, and intelligence. As business operations grow more complex and data-rich, conventional ERP platforms struggle to integrate structured and unstructured data in real time and to accommodate dynamic, cross-functional wor…
Hongyang Yang, Likun Lin, Yang She, Xinyu Liao, Jiaoyang Wang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2022
Stock market plays an important role in the economic development. Due to the complex volatility of the stock market, the research and prediction on the change of the stock price, can avoid the risk for the investors. The traditional time series model ARIMA can not describe the nonlinearity, and can not achieve satisfactory results in the stock prediction. As neural networks are with strong nonlinear generalization ab…
Zhuangwei Shi, Yang Hu, Guangliang Mo, Jian Wu
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2022
Graph convolutional networks (GCNs) is a class of artificial neural networks for processing data that can be represented as graphs. Since financial transactions can naturally be constructed as graphs, GCNs are widely applied in the financial industry, especially for financial fraud detection. In this paper, we focus on fraud detection on cryptocurrency truct networks. In the literature, most works focus on static net…
Song Li, Jiandong Zhou, Chong MO, Jin LI, Geoffrey K. F. Tso
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2022
On October 30th, 2021, Rebellion Research's CEO announced in a Q3 2021 Letter to Investors that Rebellion's AI Global Equity strategy returned +6.8% gross for the first three quarters of 2021. "It's no surprise", Alex told us, "Our Machine Learning global strategy has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 for 14 years". In 2021, Rebellion's brokerage accounts can be opened in over 70 countries, and Rebellion's resea…
Jimei Shen, Yihan Mo, Christopher Plimpton, Mustafa Kaan Basaran