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This article introduces a Hype-Adjusted Probability Measure in the context of a new Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach for stock return and volatility forecasting. A novel sentiment score equation is proposed to represent the impact of intraday news on forecasting next-period stock return and volatility for selected U.S. semiconductor tickers, a very vibrant industry sector. This work improves the forecast ac…
This research introduces a novel quantitative methodology tailored for quantitative finance applications, enabling banks, stockbrokers, and investors to predict economic regimes and market signals in emerging markets, specifically Sri Lankan stock indices (S&P SL20 and ASPI) by integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) sentiment analysis with macroeconomic indicators and advanced time-series forecasting…
This paper introduces the Hype Index as a novel metric to quantify media attention toward large-cap equities, leveraging advances in Natural Language Processing (NLP) for extracting predictive signals from financial news. Using the S&P 100 as the focus universe, we first construct a News Count-Based Hype Index, which measures relative media exposure by computing the share of news articles referencing each stock or se…
Financial news is essential for accurate market prediction, but evolving narratives across macroeconomic regimes introduce semantic and causal drift that weaken model reliability. We present an evaluation framework to quantify robustness in financial NLP under regime shifts. The framework defines four metrics: (1) Financial Causal Attribution Score (FCAS) for alignment with causal cues, (2) Patent Cliff Sensitivity (…
This study utilizes machine learning algorithms to analyze and organize knowledge in the field of algorithmic trading. By filtering a dataset of 136 million research papers, we identified 14,342 relevant articles published between 1956 and Q1 2020. We compare traditional practices-such as keyword-based algorithms and embedding techniques-with state-of-the-art topic modeling methods that employ dimensionality reductio…
We introduce novel approaches to cryptocurrency price forecasting, leveraging Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, with a focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. By analysing news and social media content, primarily from Twitter and Reddit, we assess the impact of public sentiment on cryptocurrency markets. A distinctive feature of our methodology is the application of the BART MNLI zero-sho…
We study a \emph{QDisCoCirc}-inspired, chunked diagram-to-circuit quantum natural language processing (QNLP) model for three-class sentiment classification of financial texts. In our classical simulations, we keep the Hilbert-space dimension manageable by decomposing each sentence into short contiguous chunks. Each chunk is mapped to a shallow quantum circuit, and the resulting Bloch vectors are used as a sequence of…
Uniswap is a Constant Product Market Maker built around liquidity pools, where pairs of tokens are exchanged subject to a fee that is proportional to the size of transactions. At the time of writing, there exist more than 6,000 pools associated with Uniswap v3, implying that empirical investigations on the full ecosystem can easily become computationally expensive. Thus, we propose a systematic workflow to extract an…
Existing financial NLP benchmarks often rely on labels supplied by outside observers, measuring how language is perceived rather than what speakers have committed to in the market. We introduce StakeBench, an evaluation framework for language understanding grounded in market commitment. StakeBench links 560,876 comments from 2,261 resolved markets to verified position, action, and market-odds records across Polymarke…
This study introduces an interpretable machine learning (ML) framework to extract macroeconomic alpha from global news sentiment. We process the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) Project's worldwide news feed using FinBERT -- a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) based model pretrained on finance-specific language -- to construct daily sentiment indices incorporating mea…
The financial industry's growing demand for advanced natural language processing (NLP) capabilities has highlighted the limitations of generalist large language models (LLMs) in handling domain-specific financial tasks. To address this gap, we introduce the LLM Pro Finance Suite, a collection of five instruction-tuned LLMs (ranging from 8B to 70B parameters) specifically designed for financial applications. Our appro…
BERT is a bidirectional Transformer encoder trained with masked language modeling and next-sentence prediction, then fine-tuned on downstream NLP tasks.
A word embedding is a dense vector for a token such that geometry (distance, direction) reflects distributional meaning. It is the input layer of almost every neural NLP model.
Use how similar this year’s 10-K/10-Q language is to last year’s as a signal — boilerplate vs change as alternative data.
Score filings on information density (less boilerplate, more content words) and sort the cross-section on that score.
BERT is a bidirectional Transformer encoder trained with masked language modeling and next-sentence prediction, then fine-tuned on downstream NLP tasks.
A word embedding is a dense vector for a token such that geometry (distance, direction) reflects distributional meaning. It is the input layer of almost every neural NLP model.