arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Persistent shifts in term-structure dynamics undermine the stability of single-regime models in long samples. We develop an arbitrage-free regime-switching generalized CIR (RS-GCIR) model that jointly prices the Chinese government bond (CGB) curve and corporate bond curves. To capture the systematic transmission from interest-rate conditions to credit spreads, we structure the model into two blocks and price corporat…
Maochun Xu, Yunqi Liang, Yi Hong
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
We study whether nuclear and energy-adjacent equity options exhibit a harvestable variance risk premium. Using CRSP and OptionMetrics data for 2000-2024, we construct a systematic cash-secured short-put strategy on a curated universe of nuclear-related firms. The strategy compares at-the-money put implied volatility with GARCH-based realized volatility forecasts, then evaluates unconditional and IV/RV-filtered put-wr…
Jilang Miao, Nonna Sorokina
OpenAlex · The Journal of Finance · 2004 · cites 390
ABSTRACT We examine the role of price discovery in the U.S. Treasury market through the empirical relationship between orderflow, liquidity, and the yield curve. We find that orderflow imbalances (excess buying or selling pressure) account for up to 26% of the day‐to‐day variation in yields on days without major macroeconomic announcements. The effect of orderflow on yields is permanent and strongest when liquidity i…
Michael W. Brandt, Kenneth A. Kavajecz
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
We investigate the application of quantum cognition machine learning (QCML), a novel paradigm for both supervised and unsupervised learning tasks rooted in the mathematical formalism of quantum theory, to distance metric learning in corporate bond markets. Compared to equities, corporate bonds are relatively illiquid and both trade and quote data in these securities are relatively sparse. Thus, a measure of distance/…
Joshua Rosaler, Luca Candelori, Vahagn Kirakosyan, Kharen Musaelian, Ryan Samson
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
This whitepaper introduces an innovative mechanism for pricing perpetual contracts and quoting fees to traders based on current market conditions. The approach employs liquidity curves and on-chain oracles to establish a new adaptive pricing framework that considers various factors, ensuring pricing stability and predictability. The framework utilizes parabolic and sigmoid functions to quote prices and fees, accounti…
Chester Bella, Danny Boahen, Sudeep Biswas
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
We consider a liquidity provider's (LP's) exposure to stablecoin and liquid staking derivative (LSD) depegs on Curve's StableSwap pools. We construct a suite of metrics designed to detect potential asset depegs based on price and trading data. Using our metrics, we fine-tune a Bayesian Online Changepoint Detection (BOCD) algorithm to alert LPs of potential depegs before or as they occur. We train and test our changep…
Thomas N. Cintra, Maxwell P. Holloway
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
The notion of a credit spread curve is fundamental in fixed income investing, but in practice it is not `given' and needs to be constructed from bond prices either for a particular issuer, or for a sector rating-by-rating. Rather than attempting to fit spreads -- and as we discuss here, the Z-spread is unsuitable -- we fit parametrised survival curves. By deriving a valuation formula for a risky bond, we explain and …
Richard J. Martin
arXiv · arXiv · 2018
We develop a general term structure framework taking stochastic discontinuities explicitly into account. Stochastic discontinuities are a key feature in interest rate markets, as for example the jumps of the term structures in correspondence to monetary policy meetings of the ECB show. We provide a general analysis of multiple curve markets under minimal assumptions in an extended HJM framework and provide a fundamen…
Claudio Fontana, Zorana Grbac, Sandrine Gümbel, Thorsten Schmidt
arXiv · arXiv · 2013
The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for pricing under credit, collateral and funding risks into term structure modelling, integrating the origination of different term structures with such effects. Under a number of ass…
Andrea Pallavicini, Damiano Brigo
arXiv · arXiv · 2011
The writers propose a mathematical Method for deriving risk weights which describe how a borrower's income, relative to their debt service obligations (serviceability) affects the probability of default of the loan. The Method considers the borrower's income not simply as a known quantity at the time the loan is made, but as an uncertain quantity following a statistical distribution at some later point in the life of…
Graham Andersen, David Chisholm
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This text grew out of a historical introduction initially written for a study of interest rates in cryptocurrency markets. The difficulty of defining a term structure for a currency without a conventional bond market led naturally to a more fundamental question: under what historical conditions does a yield curve become observable at all? Credit existed long before modern money, and interest-bearing loans are documen…
Olivier Guéant
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, public firms that hold large crypto reserves as a core strategy, deliver levered exposure to digital assets but face acute downside risk when equity premia over net asset value multiples (mNAV) compress in bear markets. This paper develops a survival framework that couples conservative treasury policy with an operating line that monetizes holdings independent of mark-to-market …
Hongzhe Wen
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Stablecoins promise par convertibility, yet issuers must balance immediate liquidity against yield on reserves to keep the peg credible. We study this treasury problem as a continuous-time control task with two instruments: reallocating reserves between cash and short-duration government bills, and setting a spread fee for either minting or burning the coin. Mint and redemption flows follow mutually exciting processe…
Alexander Hammerl
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This study employs an event study methodology to investigate the market impact of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) classification of crypto assets as securities. It explores how SEC interventions influence asset returns and trading volumes, focusing on explicitly named crypto assets. The empirical analysis highlights significant adverse market reactions, notably returns plummeting 12% over one week…
Aman Saggu, Lennart Ante, Kaja Kopiec
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
Automated Market Makers (AMMs) are essential in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) as they match liquidity supply with demand. They function through liquidity providers (LPs) who deposit assets into liquidity pools. However, the asset trading prices in these pools often trail behind those in more dynamic, centralized exchanges, leading to potential arbitrage losses for LPs. This issue is tackled by adapting market maker bo…
Viraj Nadkarni, Sanjeev Kulkarni, Pramod Viswanath
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
The term structure of interest rates (yield curve) is a critical facet of financial analytics, impacting various investment and risk management decisions. It is used by the central bank to conduct and monitor its monetary policy. That instrument reflects the anticipation of inflation and the risk by investors. The rates reported on yield curve are the cornerstone of valuation of all assets. To provide such tool for B…
Rédempteur Ntawiratsa, David Niyukuri, Irène Irakoze, Menus Nkurunziza
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
The Nelson-Siegel framework is employed to model the term structure of commodity futures prices. Exploiting the information embedded in the level, slope and curvature parameters, we develop novel investment strategies that assume short-term continuation of recent parallel, slope or butterfly movements of futures curves. Systematic strategies based on the change in the slope generate significant profits that are unrel…
Robert J Bianchi, John Hua Fan, Joelle Miffre, Tingxi Zhang
arXiv · arXiv · 2019
We revisit the optimal capital structure model with endogenous bankruptcy first studied by Leland \cite{Leland94} and Leland and Toft \cite{Leland96}. Differently from the standard case, where shareholders observe continuously the asset value and bankruptcy is executed instantaneously without delay, we assume that the information of the asset value is updated only at intervals, modeled by the jump times of an indepen…
Zbigniew Palmowski, José Luis Pérez, Budhi Arta Surya, Kazutoshi Yamazaki