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SOFR derivatives market remains illiquid and incomplete so it is not amenable to classical risk-neutral term structure models which are based on the assumption of perfect liquidity and completeness. This paper develops a statistical SOFR term structure model that is well-suited for risk management and derivatives pricing within the incomplete markets paradigm. The model incorporates relevant macroeconomic factors tha…
The LIBOR rate is currently scheduled for discontinuation, and the replacement advocated by regulators in the US is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). The change has the potential to disrupt the $200 trillion market of derivatives and debt tied to the LIBOR. The only SOFR linked derivative with any significant liquidity and trading history is the SOFR futures contract, traded at the CME since 2018. We use t…
The Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is becoming the main Risk-Free Rate benchmark in US dollars, thus interest rate term structure models need to be updated to reflect the key features exhibited by the dynamics of SOFR and the forward rates implied by SOFR futures. Historically, interest rate term structure modelling has been based on rates of substantially longer time to maturity than overnight, but with SOFR …
Thousands of SOFR derivatives are available in exchanges and OTC, but the market remains illiquid and incomplete. Such a market is beyond the scope of classic risk-neutral approaches that imply linear pricing rules and, at best, approximate hedging strategies whose hedging error may be difficult to quantify. This paper develops an indifference pricing model which is consistent with observed derivative quotes, the age…
In this paper, we propose a semi-analytical approach to pricing options on SOFR futures where the underlying SOFR follows a time-dependent CEV model. By definition, these options change their type at the beginning of the reference period: before this time, this is an American option written on a SOFR forward price as an underlying, and after this point, this is an arithmetic Asian option with an American style exerci…
We introduce a perturbative formalism to solve the backward-looking futures pricing problem. The formalism is based on a time-ordered exponential series which allows to derive the functional form of the integral kernel associated to the backward-Kolmogorov diffusion PDE. We present an analytic pricing formula for SOFR futures contracts under an extension of the Hull-White model which incorporates not only the intrins…
The LIBOR has served since the 1970s as a fundamental measure for floating term rates across multiple currencies and maturities. However, in 2017 the Financial Conduct Authority announced the discontinuation of LIBOR from the end of 2021 and the New York Fed declared the Treasury repo financing rate, called the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), as a candidate for a new reference rate for interest rate swaps de…
In this paper, we present an alternative perspective on the mean-field LIBOR market model introduced by Desmettre et al. in arXiv:2109.10779. Our novel approach embeds the mean-field model in a classical setup, but retains the crucial feature of controlling the term rate's variances over large time horizons. This maintains the market model's practicability, since calibrations and simulations can be carried out effici…
The financial industry has undergone a significant transition from the London Interbank Offered Rates (LIBORs) to Risk Free Rates (RFRs) such as, e.g., the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Cash Rate (AONIA) in Australia, as primary benchmark rates for borrowing costs. The paper examines the pricing and hedging method for financial products in a cross-currency framework with the special emph…
Overnight rates, such as the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) in the US, are central to the current reform of interest rate benchmarks. A striking feature of overnight rates is the presence of jumps and spikes occurring at predetermined dates due to monetary policy interventions and liquidity constraints. This corresponds to stochastic discontinuities (i.e., discontinuities occurring at ex-ante known points in…
In the LIBOR era, banks routinely tied revolving credit facilities to credit-sensitive benchmarks. This study assesses the Across-the-Curve Credit Spread Index (AXI) -- a transparent, transaction-based measure of wholesale bank funding costs -- as a complement to SOFR, summarizing its behavior, construction, and loan-pricing implications. AXI aggregates observable unsecured funding transactions across short- and long…
We provide a general HJM framework for forward contracts written on abstract market indices with arbitrary fixing and payment adjustments, and featuring collateralization in any currency denominations. In view of this, we first provide a thorough study of cross-currency markets in the presence of collateral and incompleteness. Then we give a general treatment of collateral dislocations by describing the instantaneous…
Applying historical data from the USD LIBOR transition period, we estimate a joint model for SOFR, Fed Funds, and Eurodollar futures rates as well as spot USD LIBOR and term repo rates. The framework endogenously models basis spreads between each of the benchmark rates and allows for the decomposition of spreads. Modelling the LIBOR-OIS spread as credit and funding-liquidity roll-over risk, we find that the spike in …
With the reform of interest rate benchmarks, interbank offered rates (IBORs) like LIBOR have been replaced by risk-free rates (RFRs), such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Euro Short-Term Rate (\euro STR) in Europe. These rates exhibit characteristics like jumps and spikes that correspond to specific market events, driven by regulatory and liquidity constraints. To capture these char…
Short-term interest-rate futures — SOFR, SONIA, Euribor strips — a specialist language of meeting-to-meeting path trades and pack/bundle spreads.
Mid-September 2019 US GC/SOFR printed in the double digits for a day as reserves met a tax date and bill supply — a plumbing scare that created the standing repo facility debate.
SOFR is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, a key benchmark for U.S. dollar funding based on overnight Treasury repo transactions.
An interest-rate swap exchanges fixed coupons for floating (or the reverse) on a notional — the vanilla rates derivative.
Mid-September 2019 US GC/SOFR printed in the double digits for a day as reserves met a tax date and bill supply — a plumbing scare that created the standing repo facility debate.
SOFR is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, a key benchmark for U.S. dollar funding based on overnight Treasury repo transactions.
Short-term interest-rate futures — SOFR, SONIA, Euribor strips — a specialist language of meeting-to-meeting path trades and pack/bundle spreads.