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Evaluating customer creditworthiness is crucial for retail banking operations, as it impacts marketing strategies, customer relationship management, and credit risk control. Traditional methods often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies and extract pertinent information from customer data, crucial for accurate risk assessment. Specifically, they fail to differentiate between temporal patterns indicative …
We explore the performance of various artificial neural network architectures, including a multilayer perceptron (MLP), Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN), LSTM-GRU hybrid recursive neural network (RNN) models, and a time-delay neural network (TDNN) for pricing European call options. In this study, we attempt to leverage the ability of supervised learning methods, such as ANNs, KANs, and gradient-boosted decision trees,…
Ant Credit Pay is a consumer credit service in Ant Financial Service Group. Similar to credit card, loan default is one of the major risks of this credit product. Hence, effective algorithm for default prediction is the key to losses reduction and profits increment for the company. However, the challenges facing in our scenario are different from those in conventional credit card service. The first one is scalability…
This article aims to discuss some basics in field of credit modeling, specifically the pricing issue of FtD contract. We demonstrate how the popular copula approach is used in pricing FtD contract, and give a stimulation example of such practice based on SAS 9.1.
The deep hedging framework of Buehler et al. (2019) trains a neural network policy, via Monte Carlo simulation of price paths and stochastic gradient descent, to minimize a risk measure applied to the terminal hedging error. In a recent stream of papers, my coauthors and I have described this technique as reinforcement learning (RL). Several peers have, on occasion, expressed the view that deep hedging does not const…
Considering the continuous-time Mean-Variance (MV) portfolio optimization problem, we study a regime-switching market setting and apply reinforcement learning (RL) techniques to assist informed exploration within the control space. We introduce and solve the Exploratory Mean Variance with Regime Switching (EMVRS) problem. We also present a Policy Improvement Theorem. Further, we recognize that the widely applied Temp…
Analytics of financial data is inherently a Big Data paradigm, as such data are collected over many assets, asset classes, countries, and time periods. This represents a challenge for modern machine learning models, as the number of model parameters needed to process such data grows exponentially with the data dimensions; an effect known as the Curse-of-Dimensionality. Recently, Tensor Decomposition (TD) techniques h…
We propose a unified framework to study policy evaluation (PE) and the associated temporal difference (TD) methods for reinforcement learning in continuous time and space. We show that PE is equivalent to maintaining the martingale condition of a process. From this perspective, we find that the mean--square TD error approximates the quadratic variation of the martingale and thus is not a suitable objective for PE. We…
Financial time-series classification (FTC) is extremely valuable for investment management. In past decades, it draws a lot of attention from a wide extent of research areas, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI). Existing researches majorly focused on exploring the effects of the Multi-Scale (MS) property or the Temporal Dependency (TD) within financial time-series. Unfortunately, most previous researches fail to …
In this letter, I consider the issue of pricing risky debt by following Merton's approach. I generalize Merton's results to the case where the interest rate is modeled by the CIR term structure. Exact closed forms are provided for the risky debt's price.
In this work, I generalize Merton's approach of pricing risky debt to the case where the interest rate risk is modeled by the CIR term structure. Closed form result for pricing the debt is given for the case where the firm value has non-zero correlation with the interest rate. This extends previous closed form pricing formular of zero-correlation case to the generic one of non-zero correlation between the firm value …
The analysis of observed conditional distributions of both lagged and simultaneous intraday price increments of a basket of stocks reveals phenomena of dependence - induced volatility smile and kurtosis reduction. A model based on multivariate t-Student distribution shows that the observed effects are caused by colelctive non-gaussian dependence properties of financial time series.
Properties of distributions of the number of trades in different intraday time intervals for five stocks traded in MICEX are studied. The dependence of the mean number of trades on the capital turnover is analyzed. Correlation analysis using factorial and $H_q$ moments demonstrates the multifractal nature of these distributions as well as some peculiar changes in the correlation pattern. Guided by the analogy with th…
Using a relationship between the moments of the probability distribution of times between the two consecutive trades (intertrade time distribution) and the moments of the distribution of a daily number of trades we show, that the underlying point process generating times of the trades is an essentially non-markovian long-range memory one. Further evidence for the long-range memory nature of this point process is prov…
DQN approximates Q(s, a) with a deep net, using experience replay and a frozen target network so the TD target does not chase itself every step.
Q-learning is an off-policy TD method that learns action values Q(s, a) toward the greedy target r + γ max_a′ Q(s′, a′), without needing the behavior policy to be optimal.
Interest coverage is EBIT (or EBITDA) divided by interest expense — how many times operating profit can pay the coupon bill.
EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization — a crude operating-profit proxy used in leverage and EV multiples.
DQN approximates Q(s, a) with a deep net, using experience replay and a frozen target network so the TD target does not chase itself every step.
EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization — a crude operating-profit proxy used in leverage and EV multiples.
Interest coverage is EBIT (or EBITDA) divided by interest expense — how many times operating profit can pay the coupon bill.
Q-learning is an off-policy TD method that learns action values Q(s, a) toward the greedy target r + γ max_a′ Q(s′, a′), without needing the behavior policy to be optimal.