arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We propose a Neural Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with Adaptive Granularity Attention (AGA) for high-frequency order flow modeling. The model addresses the challenge of capturing multi-scale temporal dynamics in financial markets, where fine-grained microstructure signals and coarse-grained liquidity trends coexist. The proposed framework integrates parallel multi-resolution encoders, including a dilated convolutional ne…
Tianzuo Hu
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
This study investigates the pre-trained RNN attention models with the mainstream attention mechanisms, such as additive attention, Luong's three attentions, global self-attention and sliding window sparse attention, for the empirical asset pricing research on the top 420 large-cap US stocks. This is the first paper on the large-scale state-of-the-art (SOTA) attention mechanisms applied in the asset pricing context. T…
Shanyan Lai
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Price Trend Prediction (PTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and assets. Surprisingly, by adapting a simple MLP-based architecture to LOB, we show that we surpass SoTA performance; thus, challenging the necessity of complex architectures. Unlike past work that …
Leonardo Berti, Gjergji Kasneci
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
Whereas traditional credit scoring tends to employ only individual borrower- or loan-level predictors, it has been acknowledged for some time that connections between borrowers may result in default risk propagating over a network. In this paper, we present a model for credit risk assessment leveraging a dynamic multilayer network built from a Graph Neural Network and a Recurrent Neural Network, each layer reflecting…
Sahab Zandi, Kamesh Korangi, María Óskarsdóttir, Christophe Mues, Cristián Bravo
arXiv · arXiv · 2021
The liquidity risk factor of security market plays an important role in the formulation of trading strategies. A more liquid stock market means that the securities can be bought or sold more easily. As a sound indicator of market liquidity, the transaction duration is the focus of this study. We concentrate on estimating the probability density function p(Δt_(i+1) |G_i) where Δt_(i+1) represents the duration of the (…
Yong Shi, Wei Dai, Wen Long, Bo Li
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Hybrid Deep Learning for equity index forecasting is limited by three problems: propagation of OHLCV noise into derived technical indicators (TIs), channel-indiscriminate multi-scale decomposition that conflates heterogeneous frequency signatures, and static multi-branch fusion that cannot adapt to market regime shifts. WaVeFuse addresses these limitations through a unified dual-branch architecture. Symlet-4 wavelet …
Aashish Bohra, Vivek Vijay
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
MASTER's inter-stock multi-head attention -- the module responsible for modeling cross-sectional stock relationships -- accounts for 42.5% of model parameters and 25% of predictive value. We systematically decompose this module and uncover a surprising structure: the learned attention is near-uniform (perplexity 278/300), yet forcing exact uniformity eliminates all cross-sectional discrimination. Spectral analysis re…
Kunhan Guo
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Accurately predicting stock repurchases is crucial for quantitative investment and risk management, yet traditional static models fail to capture the complex temporal dependencies of corporate financial conditions. This paper proposes a dynamic early warning system integrating economic theory with deep temporal networks. Using Chinese A-share panel data (2014-2024), we employ a hybrid Temporal Convolutional Network (…
Xiang Ao, Jingxuan Zhang, Xinyu Zhao
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Attention heads retrieve: given a query, they return a weighted average of stored values. We showed that this computation is one step of gradient descent on the modern Hopfield energy, and that Langevin sampling from the corresponding Boltzmann distribution yielded stochastic attention, a training-free sampler controlled by a single temperature parameter. Lowering the temperature gave exact retrieval; raising it gave…
Abdulrahman Alswaidan, Jeffrey D. Varner
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by fractional Brownian motion (fBm) are increasingly used to model systems with rough dynamics and long-range dependence, such as those arising in quantitative finance and reliability engineering. However, these processes are non-Markovian and lack a semimartingale structure, rendering many classical parameter estimation techniques inapplicable or computationally intrac…
Xianglin Wu, Chiheb Ben Hammouda, Cornelis W. Oosterlee
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Statistical arbitrage exploits temporal price differences between similar assets. We develop a framework to jointly identify similar assets through factors, identify mispricing and form a trading policy that maximizes risk-adjusted performance after trading costs. Our Attention Factors are conditional latent factors that are the most useful for arbitrage trading. They are learned from firm characteristic embeddings t…
Elliot L. Epstein, Rose Wang, Jaewon Choi, Markus Pelger
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
We formulate automated market maker (AMM) \emph{rebalancing} as a binary detection problem and study a hybrid quantum--classical self-attention block, \textbf{Quantum Adaptive Self-Attention (QASA)}. QASA constructs quantum queries/keys/values via variational quantum circuits (VQCs) and applies standard softmax attention over Pauli-$Z$ expectation vectors, yielding a drop-in attention module for financial time-series…
Chi-Sheng Chen, Aidan Hung-Wen Tsai
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
This paper introduces the Hype Index as a novel metric to quantify media attention toward large-cap equities, leveraging advances in Natural Language Processing (NLP) for extracting predictive signals from financial news. Using the S&P 100 as the focus universe, we first construct a News Count-Based Hype Index, which measures relative media exposure by computing the share of news articles referencing each stock or se…
Zheng Cao, Wanchaloem Wunkaew, Helyette Geman
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
As financial markets grow increasingly complex in the big data era, accurate stock prediction has become more critical. Traditional time series models, such as GRUs, have been widely used but often struggle to capture the intricate nonlinear dynamics of markets, particularly in the flexible selection and effective utilization of key historical information. Recently, methods like Graph Neural Networks and Reinforcemen…
Peng Zhu, Yuante Li, Yifan Hu, Sheng Xiang, Qinyuan Liu
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
We explore the performance of various artificial neural network architectures, including a multilayer perceptron (MLP), Kolmogorov-Arnold network (KAN), LSTM-GRU hybrid recursive neural network (RNN) models, and a time-delay neural network (TDNN) for pricing European call options. In this study, we attempt to leverage the ability of supervised learning methods, such as ANNs, KANs, and gradient-boosted decision trees,…
Boris Ter-Avanesov, Homayoon Beigi
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
Apart from assessing individual asset performance, investors in financial markets also need to consider how a set of firms performs collectively as a portfolio. Whereas traditional Markowitz-based mean-variance portfolios are widespread, network-based optimisation techniques offer a more flexible tool to capture complex interdependencies between asset values. However, most of the existing studies do not contain firms…
Kamesh Korangi, Christophe Mues, Cristián Bravo
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
In recent years, deep or reinforcement learning approaches have been applied to optimise investment portfolios through learning the spatial and temporal information under the dynamic financial market. Yet in most cases, the existing approaches may produce biased trading signals based on the conventional price data due to a lot of market noises, which possibly fails to balance the investment returns and risks. Accordi…
Zhenglong Li, Vincent Tam
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
In this paper, we explore the use of a deep residual U-net with self-attention to solve the the continuous time time-consistent mean variance optimal trade execution problem for multiple agents and assets. Given a finite horizon we formulate the time-consistent mean-variance optimal trade execution problem following the Almgren-Chriss model as a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. The HJB formulation is known to …
Andrew Na, Justin Wan