arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
This research presents a comprehensive framework for analyzing liquidity in financial markets, particularly in the context of high-frequency trading. By leveraging advanced machine learning classification techniques, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest, the study aims to predict minute-level price movements using an extensive set of liquidity metrics derived from the Trade and Quo…
Sid Bhatia, Sidharth Peri, Sam Friedman, Michelle Malen
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2021
A binary classifier that tries to predict if the price of an asset will increase or decrease naturally gives rise to a trading strategy that follows the prediction and thus always has a position in the market. Selective classification extends a binary or many-class classifier to allow it to abstain from making a prediction for certain inputs, thereby allowing a trade-off between the accuracy of the resulting selectiv…
Nestoras Chalkidis, Rahul Savani
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
Accurate industry classification is critical for many areas of portfolio management, yet the traditional single-industry framework of the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) struggles to comprehensively represent risk for highly diversified multi-sector conglomerates like Amazon. Previously, we introduced the Multi-Industry Simplex (MIS), a probabilistic extension of GICS that utilizes topic modeling, a na…
Maksim Papenkov
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Financial text classification has increasingly become an important aspect in quantitative trading systems and related tasks, such as financial sentiment analysis and the classification of financial news. In this paper, we assess the performance of the large language model Qwen3-8B on both tasks. Qwen3-8B is a state-of-the-art model that exhibits strong instruction-following and multilingual capabilities, and is disti…
Zhiming Lian
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Accurately forecasting central bank policy decisions, particularly those of the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) has become increasingly important amid heightened economic uncertainty. While prior studies have used monetary policy texts to predict rate changes, most rely on static classification models that overlook the deliberative nature of policymaking. This study proposes a novel framework that structurally im…
Kaito Takano, Masanori Hirano, Kei Nakagawa
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Stock market indices serve as fundamental market measurement that quantify systematic market dynamics. However, accurate index price prediction remains challenging, primarily because existing approaches treat indices as isolated time series and frame the prediction as a simple regression task. These methods fail to capture indices' inherent nature as aggregations of constituent stocks with complex, time-varying inter…
Junzhe Jiang, Chang Yang, Xinrun Wang, Bo Li
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
The Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE) is the standard classification system for the categorization of economic and industrial activities within the European Union. This paper proposes a novel approach to transform the NACE classification into low-dimensional embeddings, using state-of-the-art models and dimensionality reduction techniques. The primary challenge is the …
Andrea Vidali, Nicola Jean, Giacomo Le Pera
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
Our research presents a new approach for forecasting the synchronization of stock prices using machine learning and non-linear time-series analysis. To capture the complex non-linear relationships between stock prices, we utilize recurrence plots (RP) and cross-recurrence quantification analysis (CRQA). By transforming Cross Recurrence Plot (CRP) data into a time-series format, we enable the use of Recurrent Neural N…
Sanjay Sathish, Charu C Sharma
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
We propose the use of conversational GPT models for easy and quick few-shot text classification in the financial domain using the Banking77 dataset. Our approach involves in-context learning with GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, which minimizes the technical expertise required and eliminates the need for expensive GPU computing while yielding quick and accurate results. Additionally, we fine-tune other pre-trained, masked language…
Lefteris Loukas, Ilias Stogiannidis, Prodromos Malakasiotis, Stavros Vassos
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
The paper studies intraday price movement of stocks that is considered as an image classification problem. Using a CNN-based model we make a compelling case for the high-level relationship between the first hour of trading and the close. The algorithm managed to adequately separate between the two opposing classes and investing according to the algorithm's predictions outperformed all alternative constructs but the t…
Matej Steinbacher
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
Motivated by the current fears of a potentially stagflationary global economic environment, this paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to study multivariate time series pertaining to country inflation (CPI), economic growth (GDP) and equity index behaviours. We begin by assessing the temporal evolution among various economic phenomena, and complement this analysis with `economic driver analys…
Nick James, Max Menzies, Kevin Chin
arXiv · arXiv · 2021
This work aims to analyse the predictability of price movements of cryptocurrencies on both hourly and daily data observed from January 2017 to January 2021, using deep learning algorithms. For our experiments, we used three sets of features: technical, trading and social media indicators, considering a restricted model of only technical indicators and an unrestricted model with technical, trading and social media in…
Marco Ortu, Nicola Uras, Claudio Conversano, Giuseppe Destefanis, Silvia Bartolucci
arXiv · arXiv · 2019
Financial time-series classification (FTC) is extremely valuable for investment management. In past decades, it draws a lot of attention from a wide extent of research areas, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI). Existing researches majorly focused on exploring the effects of the Multi-Scale (MS) property or the Temporal Dependency (TD) within financial time-series. Unfortunately, most previous researches fail to …
Liu Guang, Wang Xiaojie, Li Ruifan
arXiv · arXiv · 2019
The art of systematic financial trading evolved with an array of approaches, ranging from simple strategies to complex algorithms all relying, primary, on aspects of time-series analysis. Recently, after visiting the trading floor of a leading financial institution, we noticed that traders always execute their trade orders while observing images of financial time-series on their screens. In this work, we built upon t…
Naftali Cohen, Tucker Balch, Manuela Veloso
arXiv · arXiv · 2017
We provide complete source code for building a fundamental industry classification based on publically available and freely downloadable data. We compare various fundamental industry classifications by running a horserace of short-horizon trading signals (alphas) utilizing open source heterotic risk models (https://ssrn.com/abstract=2600798) built using such industry classifications. Our source code includes various …
Zura Kakushadze, Willie Yu
arXiv · arXiv · 2014
As the number of publicly traded companies as well as the amount of their financial data grows rapidly, it is highly desired to have tracking, analysis, and eventually stock selections automated. There have been few works focusing on estimating the stock prices of individual companies. However, many of those have worked with very small number of financial parameters. In this work, we apply machine learning techniques…
Sercan Arik, Sukru Burc Eryilmaz, Adam Goldberg
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2016
We present a study of price impact in the over-the-counter credit index market, where no limit order book is used. Contracts are traded via dealers, that compete for the orders of clients. Despite this distinct microstructure, we successfully apply the propagator technique to estimate the price impact of individual transactions. Because orders are typically split less than in multilateral markets, impact is observed …
Zoltan Eisler, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
This study introduces a dynamic investment framework to enhance portfolio management in volatile markets, offering clear advantages over traditional static strategies. Evaluates four conventional approaches : equal weighted, minimum variance, maximum diversification, and equal risk contribution under dynamic conditions. Using K means clustering, the market is segmented into ten volatility-based states, with transitio…
Jinhui Li, Wenjia Xie, Luis Seco