arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Do vulnerabilities in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) destabilize traditional short-term funding markets? While the prevailing ``Contagion Hypothesis'' posits that stablecoin reserve liquidations may transmit distress to traditional markets through fire-sale pressure, we document a short-horizon ``Flight-to-Quality'' pattern in the opposite direction. In the wake of major DeFi exploits, spreads on 3-month AA-rated comme…
Tingyi Lin
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Automated Market Makers based on concentrated liquidity, such as Uniswap v3, significantly improve capital efficiency but expose Liquidity Providers (LPs) to adverse selection costs, formalized as Loss-Versus-Rebalancing (LVR). While theoretical literature quantifies these costs, the interplay between realistic blockchain microstructure and endogenous pricing mechanisms remains under-explored. This paper develops a g…
Daniele Maria Di Nosse, Fabrizio Lillo
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
The financial industry has undergone a significant transition from the London Interbank Offered Rates (LIBORs) to Risk Free Rates (RFRs) such as, e.g., the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Cash Rate (AONIA) in Australia, as primary benchmark rates for borrowing costs. The paper examines the pricing and hedging method for financial products in a cross-currency framework with the special emph…
Yining Ding, Ruyi Liu, Marek Rutkowski
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily addresses two gaps in the literature. The first is the lack of credit spread models founded on a stochastic basis that enables continuous modeling, as many existing models rely on fa…
Mohamed Ben Alaya, Ahmed Kebaier, Djibril Sarr
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
In this paper, we consider a generic interest rate market in the presence of roll-over risk, which generates spreads in spot/forward term rates. We do not require classical absence of arbitrage and rely instead on a minimal market viability assumption, which enables us to work in the context of the benchmark approach. In a Markovian setting, we extend the control theoretic approach of Gombani & Runggaldier (2013) and…
Claudio Fontana, Simone Pavarana, Wolfgang J. Runggaldier
arXiv · arXiv · 2021
This article is part of a comprehensive research project on liquidity risk in asset management, which can be divided into three dimensions. The first dimension covers the modeling of the liability liquidity risk (or funding liquidity), the second dimension is dedicated to the modeling of the asset liquidity risk (or market liquidity), whereas the third dimension considers the management of the asset-liability liquidi…
Thierry Roncalli
arXiv · arXiv · 2019
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate funding liquidity risk and contagion are available but they require not only banks' bilateral exposures data but also balance sheet data with sufficient granularity, which are hardly a…
V. Macchiati, G. Brandi, G. Cimini, G. Caldarelli, D. Paolotti
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This paper compares different methods for forecasting the term structure of U.S. and European zero-coupon government bonds using both traditional econometric and Machine Learning (ML) approaches. We compare classical models (e.g., Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA)) with different Neural Network (NN) architectures, including those inspired by the classical models, on the U.S. Treasury …
Tobias Lausser, Joao Eduardo Vuolo, Rudi Zagst
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This paper introduces a new algorithmic execution model that integrates interbank limit and market orders with internal liquidity generated through market making. Based on the Cartea et al.\cite{cartea2015algorithmic} framework, we incorporate market impact in interbank orders while excluding it for internal market-making transactions. Our model aims to optimize the balance between interbank and internal liquidity, r…
Yusuke Morimoto
arXiv · arXiv · 2019
The electronic platform has been increasingly popular for executing large corporate bond orders by asset managers, who in turn have to assess the quality of their executions via Transaction Cost Analysis (TCA). One of the challenges in TCA is to build a realistic benchmark for the expected transaction cost and to characterize the price impact of each individual trade with given bond characteristics and market conditi…
Xin Guo, Charles-Albert Lehalle, Renyuan Xu
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Prediction markets are attracting growing attention as trading volumes rise and their practical relevance increases. To ensure efficient price discovery, liquidity provision becomes ever more important. Due to the binary settlement structure in prediction markets, optimal market making leads to an optimization problem that is fundamentally different from the ones studied in classical settings. In this paper, we devel…
Dominik Feil, Max Nendel
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This paper develops a three-currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework in which corporate credit is treated as a separate economy, connected to the nominal and real economies through synthetic inflation and credit exchange rates. The framework produces a testable identity. Under joint no-arbitrage, the credit spread of an issuer expressed over the inflation-rateindexed risk-free curve equals the same issuer's credit spre…
Raphael Coelho
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This paper introduces a new risk-on risk-off strategy for the stock market, which combines a financial stress indicator with a sentiment analysis done by ChatGPT reading and interpreting Bloomberg daily market summaries. Forecasts of market stress derived from volatility and credit spreads are enhanced when combined with the financial news sentiment derived from GPT-4. As a result, the strategy shows improved perform…
Baptiste Lefort, Eric Benhamou, Jean-Jacques Ohana, David Saltiel, Beatrice Guez
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This paper compares a series of contemporary portfolio construction approaches by employing ten U.S. stocks (TSLA, WMT, BAC, GS, LLY, MRK, GOOG, META, AAPL and XOM) in a time frame from September 2023 to December 2025. The paper explores both basic mean-variance optimization, constrained optimization, Fama French five factor regression modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, and the Black-Litterman model to determine how c…
Ajay Kumar Verma, Shravya Barkam
arXiv · arXiv · 2013
Motivated by the practical challenge in monitoring the performance of a large number of algorithmic trading orders, this paper provides a methodology that leads to automatic discovery of the causes that lie behind a poor trading performance. It also gives theoretical foundations to a generic framework for real-time trading analysis. Academic literature provides different ways to formalize these algorithms and show ho…
Robert Azencott, Arjun Beri, Yutheeka Gadhyan, Nicolas Joseph, Charles-Albert Lehalle
arXiv · arXiv · 2015
A new modelling approach that directly prescribes dynamics to the term structure of VIX futures is proposed in this paper. The approach is motivated by the tractability enjoyed by models that directly prescribe dynamics to the VIX, practices observed in interest-rate modelling, and the desire to develop a platform to better understand VIX option implied volatilities. The main contribution of the paper is the derivati…
Alexander Badran, Beniamin Goldys
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We audit whether candle-based machine-learning models can turn predictions of cryptocurrency extrema or short-horizon outcomes into positive Binance Spot paper policies after assumed costs. Numerical results come from scripted fixed-seed model runs and deterministic simulators; human-supervised AI agents supported the July 20 evidence-integrity revision through literature retrieval, separately tasked critique, artifa…
Ayoub Jadouli
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
In this paper, we develop an open-economy macroeconomic model of a Proof-of-Stake network to analyze nominal token-price dynamics and the systemic effects of speculative capital. We first consider a network populated solely by active utility users, who finance network activity through a steady exogenous inflow of fiat currency. We prove the existence of a unique, globally asymptotically stable steady-state equilibriu…
Mikhail Perepelitsa