Papers, wiki, Option Blackboard, encyclopedia, and cards.
In this paper, we consider a generic interest rate market in the presence of roll-over risk, which generates spreads in spot/forward term rates. We do not require classical absence of arbitrage and rely instead on a minimal market viability assumption, which enables us to work in the context of the benchmark approach. In a Markovian setting, we extend the control theoretic approach of Gombani & Runggaldier (2013) and…
Portfolio management is an important yet challenging task in AI for FinTech, which aims to allocate investors' budgets among different assets to balance the risk and return of an investment. In this study, we propose a general Multi-objectIve framework with controLLable rIsk for pOrtfolio maNagement (MILLION), which consists of two main phases, i.e., return-related maximization and risk control. Specifically, in the …
We study the fee policy of a liquidity provider (LP) in a constant-product automated market maker (AMM) whose fee can be adjusted continuously, as enabled by programmable hooks. Building on the loss-versus-rebalancing (LVR) framework of Milionis et al. (2022) and its extension to nonzero fees by Milionis et al. (2024), we model the LP's wealth relative to the continuously rebalanced benchmark as a controlled process …
In this paper, we develop a continuous-time model-free reinforcement learning algorithm to learn deterministic equilibrium policies in general time-inconsistent control problems. Utilizing the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman system, we recast the original time-inconsistent problem into an equivalent two-stage problem. In the first stage, for given auxiliary functions, we employ the deterministic policy gradient appr…
We study permissionless spot--perpetual basis trading in decentralized finance as a collateral control problem. The strategy holds spot inventory, hedges directional exposure with a short perpetual, and allocates capital between spot inventory and derivative margin under on-chain liquidity and execution frictions. The paper delivers three results. First, it solves a static control problem for the collateral share and…
We address the problem of executing large client orders in continuous double-auction markets under time and liquidity constraints. We propose a model predictive control (MPC) framework that balances three competing objectives: order completion, market impact, and opportunity cost. Our algorithm is guided by a trading schedule (such as time-weighted average price or volume-weighted average price) but allows for deviat…
Banks must optimize risky investments, dividend payouts, and capital structure under tight Basel III solvency and liquidity constraints, while costly equity issuance serves as a distress-recovery tool. We formulate this as a stochastic control problem that reduces the high-dimensional balance-sheet dynamics to a tractable one-dimensional process in the asset-to-deposit ratio, with state-dependent investment limits. T…
Robo-advisors (RAs) are automated portfolio management systems that complement traditional financial advisors by offering lower fees and smaller initial investment requirements. While most existing RAs rely on static, one-period allocation methods, we propose a dynamic, multi-period asset-allocation framework that leverages Model Predictive Control (MPC) to generate suboptimal but practically effective strategies. Ou…
Stablecoins promise par convertibility, yet issuers must balance immediate liquidity against yield on reserves to keep the peg credible. We study this treasury problem as a continuous-time control task with two instruments: reallocating reserves between cash and short-duration government bills, and setting a spread fee for either minting or burning the coin. Mint and redemption flows follow mutually exciting processe…
Dealers make money by providing liquidity to clients but face flow uncertainty and thus price risk. They can efficiently skew their prices and wait for clients to mitigate risk (internalization), or trade with other dealers in the open market to hedge their position and reduce their inventory (externalization). Of course, the better control associated with externalization comes with transaction costs and market impac…
Financial decision systems require fast surrogate models for pricing, calibration, hedging, XVA, stress testing, and portfolio optimization. Standard neural surrogates reproduce prices or risk quantities, but downstream tasks depend as much on derivatives: deltas, vegas, curve and credit-spread sensitivities, exposure and objective gradients. We formulate a derivative-informed operator-learning framework in which the…
Managing drawdown, the peak-to-trough decline in an investment portfolio's value, is a precondition for long-term survival in practical investment management. However, mainstream stock forecasting methods predominantly optimize returns or Sharpe ratios under the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. Real markets do not follow this assumption, triggering catastrophic drawdowns. We propose a cros…
AI agents can select tools, counterparties, and transaction parameters, yet inference should not itself confer authority to execute a financial action. This study develops and evaluates Authority-Inference Separation (AIS), an intent-centered architecture for bounded agentic finance. AIS treats a financial action intent as the control object: a machine-generated proposal can receive temporary executable authority onl…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in investment decision-making, yet prior work shows that they exhibit systematic, model-specific investment preferences. We study whether a model's overall investment stance can be calibrated to a specified direction and strength. We introduce an investment-bias dial, an inference-time intervention on a single neuron that continuously adjusts a model-level decision p…
We study continuous-time multi-asset portfolio choice and consumption under smooth pointwise constraints, including state-dependent feasible sets. The method separates dynamic information acquisition from local constrained recovery. A pointwise-feasible neural actor generates reference rollouts; after training, its realized latent outputs are frozen and first- and second-order adjoints are harvested from a fixed-late…
Limit order book (LOB) simulators are most useful to practitioners when they combine realistic market dynamics, computationally efficient sampling, controllable scenario generation, and the ability to generalize beyond the instruments seen during training---properties that existing agent-based and deep generative simulators provide only partially. We present \textbf{FlowLOB}, a conditional \textbf{flow}-matching gene…
Climate perils are linked through event ordering and state-dependent propagation, features not fully captured by joint loss distributions alone. This paper develops a Cascading Climate Risk Network (CCRN) for multi-peril reinsurance that separates calendar-scale climate conditioning from within-event propagation on a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The model combines complementary-log-log triggering hazards with bounde…
Heavy-tailed diffusion models replace Gaussian noise by a Gaussian variance mixture: denoising Levy probabilistic models (DLPM) take the mixing variables i.i.d. across coordinates, while Student-t EDM shares one mixing variable per sample. Neither has dynamics, yet temporal dependence of the noise amplitude - volatility clustering - is the defining stylized fact of financial returns. We introduce the Denoising Subord…
An asset is a present economic resource controlled by an entity from which future cash or service is expected — the left-hand side of the balance sheet.
A hostile takeover is an attempt to buy control against the target board’s recommendation — a bid to shareholders, not a negotiated merger.
Barings Bank was wiped out in 1995 by Nick Leeson’s hidden Nikkei futures losses in Singapore — a rogue-trader plus failed control story, not a macro crisis.
Cyprus 2013 combined a Greek-PSI hole in bank assets with a huge banking system versus GDP and ended in bail-in, capital controls, and a depositor haircut above insurance — a euro-area first.
Capital Controls — Official restrictions on cross-border flows that reprice FX basis and investability.
Monetary policy is the central bank’s control of short rates, liquidity, and sometimes the balance sheet — the price of reserves and the path of the front end.
Yield Curve Control — Official caps on benchmark yields and the distortions they create in RV and cross-market hedging.
Maximum Drawdown Control — Rules that de-risk after losses to preserve capital and investor mandates.
Transaction Cost Analysis — Post-trade measurement of slippage versus benchmarks for alpha decay control.
An asset is a present economic resource controlled by an entity from which future cash or service is expected — the left-hand side of the balance sheet.
Barings Bank was wiped out in 1995 by Nick Leeson’s hidden Nikkei futures losses in Singapore — a rogue-trader plus failed control story, not a macro crisis.
Capital Controls — Official restrictions on cross-border flows that reprice FX basis and investability.
Cyprus 2013 combined a Greek-PSI hole in bank assets with a huge banking system versus GDP and ended in bail-in, capital controls, and a depositor haircut above insurance — a euro-area first.
A hostile takeover is an attempt to buy control against the target board’s recommendation — a bid to shareholders, not a negotiated merger.
Maximum Drawdown Control — Rules that de-risk after losses to preserve capital and investor mandates.
Monetary policy is the central bank’s control of short rates, liquidity, and sometimes the balance sheet — the price of reserves and the path of the front end.
Transaction Cost Analysis — Post-trade measurement of slippage versus benchmarks for alpha decay control.
Yield Curve Control — Official caps on benchmark yields and the distortions they create in RV and cross-market hedging.