arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
This paper investigates the forecasting performance of COMEX copper futures realized volatility across various high-frequency intervals using both econometric volatility models and deep learning recurrent neural network models. The econometric models considered are GARCH and HAR, while the deep learning models include RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), and GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit). In fo…
Zian Wang, Xinyi Lu
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
This paper examines the influence of low-frequency macroeconomic variables on the high-frequency returns of copper futures and the long-term correlation with the S&P 500 index, employing GARCH-MIDAS and DCC-MIDAS modeling frameworks. The estimated results of GARCH-MIDAS show that realized volatility (RV), level of interest rates (IR), industrial production (IP) and producer price index (PPI), volatility of Slope, PPI…
Zian Wang, Xinshu Li
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2021
Mining companies to properly manage their operations and be ready to make business decisions, are required to analyze potential scenarios for main market risk factors. The most important risk factors for KGHM, one of the biggest companies active in the metals and mining industry, are the price of copper (Cu), traded in US dollars, and the Polish zloty (PLN) exchange rate (USDPLN). The main scope of the paper is to un…
Łukasz Bielak, Aleksandra Grzesiek, Joanna Janczura, Agnieszka Wyłomańska
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2020
A Higher Order Markovian (HOM) model to capture the dynamics of commodity prices is proposed as an alternative to a Markovian model. In particular, the order of the former model, is taken to be the delay, in the response of the industry, to the market information. This is then empirically analyzed for the prices of Copper Mini and four other bases metals, namely Aluminum, Lead, Nickel and Zinc, in the Indian commodit…
Suryadeepto Nag, Sankarshan Basu, Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2016
This paper studies the problem of optimally extracting nonrenewable natural resource in light of various financial and economic restrictions and constraints. Taking into account the fact that the market values of the main natural resources i.e. oil, natural gas, copper,...,etc, fluctuate randomly following global and seasonal macroeconomic parameters, these values are modeled using Markov switching Lévy processes. We…
Moustapha Pemy
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2016
Peru's abundant natural resources and friendly trade policies has made the country a major economic player in both South America and the global community. Consequently, exports are playing an increasingly important role in Peru's national economy. Indeed, growing from 13.1% as of 1994, exports now contribute approximately 21% of the GDP of Peru as of 2015. Given Peru's growing global influence, the time is ripe for a…
Xu Wang, Ryan P. Badman
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2016
This paper studies the optimal extraction and taxation of nonrenewable natural resources. It is well known that the market values of the main strategic resources such as oil, natural gas, uranium, copper,..., etc, fluctuate randomly following global and seasonal macroeconomic parameters, these values are modeled using Markov switching Lévy processes. We formulate this problem as a differential game. The two players o…
Moustapha Pemy
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2016
The assessment of co-movement among metals is crucial to better understand the behaviors of the metal prices and the interactions with others that affect the changes in prices. In this study, both Wavelet Analysis and VARMA (Vector Autoregressive Moving Average) models are utilized. First, Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC), where Wavelet Analysis is needed, is utilized to determine dynamic correlation time interval an…
Emre Kahraman, Gazanfer Ünal
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2008
This paper develops a Bayesian procedure for estimation and forecasting of the volatility of multivariate time series. The foundation of this work is the matrix-variate dynamic linear model, for the volatility of which we adopt a multiplicative stochastic evolution, using Wishart and singular multivariate beta distributions. A diagonal matrix of discount factors is employed in order to discount the variances element …
K. Triantafyllopoulos