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Used to investigate the presence of distinctive recurrent behaviours in natural processes, the recurrence plots can be applied to the analysis of economic data, and, in particular, to the characterization of exchange rates of currencies too. In this paper, we will show that these plots are able to characterize the periods of oscillation and random walk of currencies and enhance their reply to news and events, by mean…
We develop a liquidity-sensitive multivariate volatility framework to improve the estimation of time-varying covariance structures under market frictions. We introduce two novel portfolio-level liquidity measures, liquidity jump and liquidity diffusion, which capture magnitude and volatility of liquidity fluctuation, respectively, and construct liquidity-adjusted return and volatility that reflect real-time liquidity…
The goal of this paper is to explore the relationship between momentum effects and liquidity in cryptocurrency markets. Portfolios based on momentum-liquidity bivariate sorts are formed and rebalanced on a varying number of cryptocurrencies through time. We find a strong momentum effect in the most liquid cryptocurrencies, which supports the theories of investor herding behavior. Moreover, we propose two profitable l…
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and influenced by both price trends and market sentiment, making effective portfolio management challenging. This paper proposes a dynamic cryptocurrency portfolio strategy that integrates technical indicators and sentiment analysis to enhance investment decision-making. Market momentum is captured using the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Simple Moving Average (SMA…
This paper investigates how changes in investor base is related to idiosyncratic volatility in cryptocurrency markets. For each cryptocurrency, we set change in its subreddit followers as a proxy for the change in its investor base, and find out that the latter can significantly increase cryptocurrencies idiosyncratic volatility. This finding is not subsumed by effects of size, momentum, liquidity and volume and is r…
Cryptocurrencies (CCs) have risen rapidly in market capitalization over the last years. Despite striking price volatility, their high average returns have drawn attention to CCs as alternative investment assets for portfolio and risk management. We investigate the utility gains for different types of investors when they consider cryptocurrencies as an addition to their portfolio of traditional assets. We consider ris…
In traditional financial markets, yield curves are widely available for countries (and, by extension, currencies), financial institutions, and large corporates. These curves are used to calibrate stochastic interest rate models, discount future cash flows, and price financial products. Yield curves, however, can be readily computed only because of the current size and structure of bond markets. In cryptocurrency mark…
This article examines how emerging economies use countercyclical monetary policies to manage economic crises and fluctuations in dominant currencies, such as the US dollar and the euro. Global economic cycles are marked by phases of expansion and recession, often exacerbated by major financial crises. These crises, such as those of 1997, 2008 and the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, have a particular impac…
This paper contextualises the common queries of "why is crypto crashing?" and "why is crypto down?", the research transcends beyond the frequent market fluctuations to unravel how cryptocurrencies fundamentally work and the step-by-step process on how to create a cryptocurrency. The study examines blockchain technologies and their pivotal role in the evolving Metaverse, shedding light on topics such as how to invest …
This research examines the correlations between the return volatility of cryptocurrencies, global stock market indices, and the spillover effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we employed a two-stage multivariate volatility exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model with an integrated dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) approach to measure the impact on the financial portfolio returns from 2019 to 2020. Moreove…
In this study the cross-correlations between the cryptocurrency market represented by the two most liquid and highest-capitalized cryptocurrencies: bitcoin and ethereum, on the one side, and the instruments representing the traditional financial markets: stock indices, Forex, commodities, on the other side, are measured in the period: January 2020--October 2022. Our purpose is to address the question whether the cryp…
This research mainly explores the characteristics of different strategies and whether VIX INDEX positively influences the investment portfolio in any period. Our portfolio has six significant cryptocurrencies, VIX INDEX and gold. We perform parameter estimation on all raw data and bring the two types into different investment strategies, complete them effectively according to other characteristics, and compare the re…
We present positive evidence of price stability of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange. For the sample years from 2016 to 2020, the prices of major cryptocurrencies are found to be stable, relative to major financial assets. Specifically, after filtering out the less-than-one-month cycles, we investigate the daily returns in US dollars of the major cryptocurrencies (i.e., Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple) as well a…
We present an automated market-making (AMM) cross-settlement mechanism for digital assets on interoperable blockchains, focusing on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stable coins. We develop an innovative approach for generating fair exchange rates for on-chain assets consistent with traditional off-chain markets. We illustrate the efficacy of our approach on realized FX rates for G-10 currencies.
In recent years, cryptocurrencies have gone from an obscure niche to a prominent place, with investment in these assets becoming increasingly popular. However, cryptocurrencies carry a high risk due to their high volatility. In this paper, criteria based on historical cryptocurrency data are defined in order to characterize returns and risks in different ways, in short time windows (7 and 15 days); then, the importan…
This discussion applies quantitative finance methods and economic arguments to cryptocurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular -- as there are about $10,000$ cryptocurrencies, we focus (unless otherwise specified) on the most discussed crypto of those that claim to hew to the original protocol (Nakamoto 2009) and the one with, by far, the largest market capitalization. In its current version, in spite of the hy…
This work aims to analyse the predictability of price movements of cryptocurrencies on both hourly and daily data observed from January 2017 to January 2021, using deep learning algorithms. For our experiments, we used three sets of features: technical, trading and social media indicators, considering a restricted model of only technical indicators and an unrestricted model with technical, trading and social media in…
Cryptocurrency history begins in 2008 as a means of payment proposal. However, cryptocurrencies evolved into complex, high yield speculative assets. Contrary to traditional financial instruments, they are not (mostly) traded in organized, law-abiding venues, but on online platforms, where anonymity reigns. This paper examines the long term memory in return and volatility, using high frequency time series of eleven im…
Currency futures and NDF/forwards — G10 trend, EM, and sometimes a carry overlay — the most liquid two-way sleeve in the complex.
Carry Trade FX — Funding low-yield currencies to invest in high-yielders — pro-cyclical and crash-prone.
DXY Index measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies and serves as a broad gauge of dollar strength and global financial conditions.
Uncovered Interest Parity — Hypothesis that high-yield currencies depreciate as carry accrues.
Long currencies that appreciated over the lookback, short those that depreciated — cross-sectional FX momentum.
Long undervalued currencies and short overvalued ones versus purchasing-power parity or real-rate gaps — FX value, slow and mean-reverting.
Long high-yield currencies, short low-yield currencies — harvest the forward premium that uncovered interest parity says should not persist.
Run a frequent rebalance across a crypto basket to harvest volatility and dispersion — a diversity/rebalance premium, not a coin pick.
Carry Trade FX — Funding low-yield currencies to invest in high-yielders — pro-cyclical and crash-prone.
Long currencies that appreciated over the lookback, short those that depreciated — cross-sectional FX momentum.
Long undervalued currencies and short overvalued ones versus purchasing-power parity or real-rate gaps — FX value, slow and mean-reverting.
DXY Index measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies and serves as a broad gauge of dollar strength and global financial conditions.
Long high-yield currencies, short low-yield currencies — harvest the forward premium that uncovered interest parity says should not persist.
Run a frequent rebalance across a crypto basket to harvest volatility and dispersion — a diversity/rebalance premium, not a coin pick.
Uncovered Interest Parity — Hypothesis that high-yield currencies depreciate as carry accrues.