arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2012
We propose a unified structural credit risk model incorporating both insolvency and illiquidity risks, in order to investigate how a firm's default probability depends on the liquidity risk associated with its financing structure. We assume the firm finances its risky assets by mainly issuing short- and long-term debt. Short-term debt can have either a discrete or a more realistic staggered tenor structure. At rollov…
Gechun Liang, Eva Lütkebohmert, Wei Wei
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Leveraged event positions combine a repayable loan with an outcome claim that may become non-tradable before oracle payout is final. This paper specifies Axient, a physically backed margin layer for binary event markets that separates leverage maturity from claim maturity and makes the hard-flat decision under explicit execution uncertainty. The model distinguishes quoted book proceeds, matched proceeds, settled proc…
Maksym Nechepurenko
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Kladia Liquidity Deflator (KLD) is an XRPL-based, debt-indexed token whose supply dynamics respond directly to a debt index derived from macroeconomic data sources. The model links indebtedness to deterministic adjustments in issuance, burns, and escrow release caps, creating a rule-based deflationary mechanism that strengthens as debt rises. With a fixed maximum supply of 10 billion KLD, the mechanism is implemented…
Kiarash Firouzi, Parham Pajouhi
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
We explore the interplay between sovereign debt default/renegotiation and environmental factors (e.g., pollution from land use, natural resource exploitation). Pollution contributes to the likelihood of natural disasters and influences economic growth rates. The country can default on its debt at any time while also deciding whether to invest in pollution abatement. The framework provides insights into the credit spr…
Emilio Barucci, Daniele Marazzina, Aldo Nassigh
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We develop a model of interbank networks with random liquidity shocks. Networks of dilutable debt---e.g., long-term, unsecured---facilitate efficient liquidity transfers: Shocked banks pledge interbank claims as collateral for new senior debt, diluting existing debt. Unlike with non-dilutable debt, indebtedness and connectedness are sources of stability, not fragility. Dilution is thus a ``backdoor bail-in'' that rea…
Jason Roderick Donaldson, Giorgia Piacentino, Xiaobo Yu
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
We propose a unifying framework for the pricing of debt securities under general time-inhomogeneous short-rate diffusion processes. The pricing of bonds, bond options, callable/putable bonds, and convertible bonds (CBs) is covered. Using continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) approximations, we obtain closed-form matrix expressions to approximate the price of bonds and bond options under general one-dimensional short-ra…
Marie-Claude Vachon, Anne Mackay
arXiv · arXiv · 2018
We develop a pricing model for Sovereign Contingent Convertible bonds (S-CoCo) with payment standstills triggered by a sovereign's Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread. We model CDS spread regime switching, which is prevalent during crises, as a hidden Markov process, coupled with a mean-reverting stochastic process of spread levels under fixed regimes, in order to obtain S-CoCo prices through simulation. The paper uses …
Andrea Consiglio, Michele Tumminello, Stavros A. Zenios
arXiv · arXiv · 2015
We model bond's price curves corresponding to the sovereign uruguayan debt nominated in USD, as an alternative to the official bond prices publication released by the Central Bank of Uruguay (CBU). Four different gaussian models are fitted, based on historical data issued by the CBU, corresponding to some of the more frequently traded bonds. The main difficulty we approach is the absence of liquidity in the bond mark…
Andrés Sosa, Ernesto Mordecki
arXiv · arXiv · 2012
During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at its center. In response to the crisis, drastic actions have been taken, including the halving of Greek debt. Policy makers acted because interest rates for sovereign debt increased dramatically. High interest rates imply that default is likely due to economic conditions. High interest rates also increase the cost of borrowing and …
Marco Lagi, Yaneer Bar-Yam
arXiv · arXiv · 2010
Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly controlled with respect to national wealth. Also, the problem of eliminating extreme poverty in the world is closely connected to the study of extremely poor debtor nations. We analyze t…
Alexander M. Petersen, Boris Podobnik, Davor Horvatic, H. Eugene Stanley
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We develop a stochastic macro-financial model in continuous time by integrating two specifications of the Keen economic framework with a financial market driven by a jump-diffusion process. The economic block of the model combines monetary debt-deflation mechanisms with Ponzi-type financial destabilization and is influenced by the financial market through a stochastic interest rate that depends on asset price returns…
Matheus R. Grasselli, Adrien Nguyen-Huu
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This paper describes a discrete-time model of regularly-issued sovereign debt dynamics under a deficit-driven nominal debt growth regime that explicitly accounts for granular maturity. New issuance follows fixed allocations across a finite maturity ladder, and the government budget constraint determines total borrowing endogenously. In the deterministic baseline, we identify a sustainability condition for convergence…
Christopher Cameron
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Debt recycling is a leveraged equity management strategy in which homeowners use accumulated home equity to finance investments, applying the resulting returns to accelerate mortgage repayment. We propose a novel framework to model equity and mortgage dynamics in presence of mortgage interest rates, borrowing costs on equity-backed credit lines, and tax shields arising from interest deductibility. The model is calibr…
Carlo von der Osten, Sabrina Aufiero, Pierpaolo Vivo, Fabio Caccioli, Silvia Bartolucci
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
The fragility of financial systems was starkly demonstrated in early 2023 through a cascade of major bank failures in the United States, including the second, third, and fourth largest collapses in the US history. The highly interdependent financial networks and the associated high systemic risk have been deemed the cause of the crashes. The goal of this paper is to enhance existing systemic risk analysis frameworks …
Kamil Fortuna, Janusz Szwabiński
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
The European debt purchase market as measured by the total book value of purchased debt approached 25bn euros in 2020 and it was growing at double-digit rates. This is an example of how big the debt collection and debt purchase industry has grown and the important impact it has in the financial sector. However, in order to ensure an adequate return during the debt collection process, a good estimation of the propensi…
Abel Sancarlos, Edgar Bahilo, Pablo Mozo, Lukas Norman, Obaid Ur Rehma
arXiv · arXiv · 2018
This study analyzes public debts and deficits between European countries. The statistical evidence here seems in general to reveal that sovereign debts and government deficits of countries within European Monetary Unification-in average- are getting worse than countries outside European Monetary Unification, in particular after the introduction of Euro currency. This socioeconomic issue might be due to Maastricht Tre…
Mario Coccia
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households. On the supply side, firms decide on production based on adaptive expectations for sales demand and a desired level of inventories. On the demand side, investment is determined as a function of utilization and profitability and can be financed by debt, whereas consumption is independently de…
Matheus Grasselli, Adrien Nguyen-Huu
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
Consider the problem of a government that wants to reduce the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio of a country. The government aims at choosing a debt reduction policy which minimises the total expected cost of having debt, plus the total expected cost of interventions on the debt ratio. We model this problem as a singular stochastic control problem over an infinite time-horizon. In a general not necessarily M…
Giorgio Ferrari