arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2021
Risk-neutral default probabilities can be implied from credit default swap (CDS) market quotes. In practice, mid CDS quotes are used as inputs, as their risk-neutral counterparts are not observable. We show how to imply risk-neutral default probabilities from bid and ask quotes directly by means of formulating the CDS calibration problem to bid and ask market quotes within the conic finance framework. Assuming the ri…
Matteo Michielon, Asma Khedher, Peter Spreij
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2020
One of the most challenging aspects in the analysis and modelling of financial markets, including Credit Default Swap (CDS) markets, is the presence of an emergent, intermediate level of structure standing in between the microscopic dynamics of individual financial entities and the macroscopic dynamics of the market as a whole. This elusive, mesoscopic level of organisation is often sought for via factor models that …
Ioannis Anagnostou, Tiziano Squartini, Drona Kandhai, Diego Garlaschelli
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2009
In this work we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on a random default barrier and possibly random volatility ideally associated with a scenario based underlying firm debt. We show how to calibrate this model using a chosen number of reference Credit Default Swap (CDS) market quotes. In general this model can be seen as a possible extension of the time-varying AT1P mo…
Damiano Brigo, Marco Tarenghi
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2008
In this work we derive an approximated no-arbitrage market valuation formula for Constant Maturity Credit Default Swaps (CMCDS). We move from the CDS options market model in Brigo (2004), and derive a formula for CMCDS that is the analogous of the formula for constant maturity swaps in the default free swap market under the LIBOR market model. A "convexity adjustment"-like correction is present in the related formula…
Damiano Brigo
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2017
We study an open problem of risk-sensitive portfolio allocation in a regime-switching credit market with default contagion. The state space of the Markovian regime-switching process is assumed to be a countably infinite set. To characterize the value function, we investigate the corresponding recursive infinite-dimensional nonlinear dynamical programming equations (DPEs) based on default states. We propose to work in…
Lijun Bo, Huafu Liao, Xiang Yu
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
We consider an equity market subject to risk from both unhedgeable shocks and default. The novelty of our work is that to partially offset default risk, investors may dynamically trade in a credit default swap (CDS) market. Assuming investment opportunities are driven by functions of an underlying diffusive factor process, we identify the certainty equivalent for a constant absolute risk aversion investor with a semi…
Zhe Fei, Scott Robertson
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
In this paper, we deal with an axiomatic approach to default risk. We introduce the notion of a default risk measure, which generalizes the classical probability of default (PD), and allows to incorporate model risk in various forms. We discuss different properties and representations of default risk measures via monetary risk measures, families of related tail risk measures, and Choquet capacities. In a second step,…
Max Nendel, Jan Streicher
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
A direct method for calculating default rates by industry and target corporate segments is not possible given the lack of statistical data. The proposed paper considers a model for filtering the dynamics of the probability of default of corporate companies and other borrowers based on indirect data on the dynamics of overdue debt supplied by the Bank of Russia. The model is based on the equation of the balance of tot…
Mikhail Pomazanov
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
We compare the five major sources of corporate Credit Default Swap prices: GFI, Fenics, Reuters, CMA, and Markit, using the most liquid single name 5-year CDS in the iTraxx and CDX indexes from 2004 to 2010. Deviations from the common trend among prices in the different databases are not random but are explained by idiosyncratic factors, financing costs, global risk, and other trading factors. The CMA quotes lead the…
Sergio Mayordomo, Juan Ignacio Peña, Eduardo S. Schwartz
arXiv · arXiv · 2019
This paper discusses the valuation of credit default swaps, where default is announced when the reference asset price has gone below certain level from the last record maximum, also known as the high-water mark or drawdown. We assume that the protection buyer pays premium at fixed rate when the asset price is above a pre-specified level and continuously pays whenever the price increases. This payment scheme is in fav…
Zbigniew Palmowski, Budhi Surya
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
In this paper, we search whether the Benford's law is applicable to monitor daily changes in sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) quotes, which are acknowledged to be complex systems of economic content. This test is of paramount importance since the CDS of a country proxy its health and probability to default, being associated to an insurance against the event of its default. We fit the Benford's law to the daily ch…
Marcel Ausloos, Rosella Castellano, Roy Cerqueti
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
We study insolvency cascades in an interbank system when banks are allowed to insure their loans with credit default swaps (CDS) sold by other banks. We show that, by properly shifting financial exposures from one institution to another, a CDS market can be designed to rewire the network of interbank exposures in a way that makes it more resilient to insolvency cascades. A regulator can use information about the topo…
Matt V. Leduc, Sebastian Poledna, Stefan Thurner
arXiv · arXiv · 2014
Recently, incomplete-market techniques have been used to develop a model applicable to credit default swaps (CDSs) with results obtained that are quite different from those obtained using the market-standard model. This article makes use of the new incomplete-market model to further study CDS hedging and extends the model so that it is capable treating single-name CDS portfolios. Also, a hedge called the vanilla hedg…
Michael B. Walker
arXiv · arXiv · 2013
Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between Merton-type and Black-Cox-type structural default models. Our framework leads to a single equation that emcompasses the range of possibilities, including collateralization remargining freq…
Chris Kenyon, Andrew Green
arXiv · arXiv · 2009
In this paper we develop a tractable structural model with analytical default probabilities depending on some dynamics parameters, and we show how to calibrate the model using a chosen number of Credit Default Swap (CDS) market quotes. We essentially show how to use structural models with a calibration capability that is typical of the much more tractable credit-spread based intensity models. We apply the structural …
Damiano Brigo, Marco Tarenghi
arXiv · arXiv · 2008
We introduce the general arbitrage-free valuation framework for counterparty risk adjustments in presence of bilateral default risk, including default of the investor. We illustrate the symmetry in the valuation and show that the adjustment involves a long position in a put option plus a short position in a call option, both with zero strike and written on the residual net value of the contract at the relevant defaul…
Damiano Brigo, Agostino Capponi
arXiv · arXiv · 2007
This paper develops a two-dimensional structural framework for valuing credit default swaps and corporate bonds in the presence of default contagion. Modelling the values of related firms as correlated geometric Brownian motions with exponential default barriers, analytical formulae are obtained for both credit default swap spreads and corporate bond yields. The credit dependence structure is influenced by both a lon…
Helen Haworth, Christoph Reisinger, William Shaw
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
We explore the interplay between sovereign debt default/renegotiation and environmental factors (e.g., pollution from land use, natural resource exploitation). Pollution contributes to the likelihood of natural disasters and influences economic growth rates. The country can default on its debt at any time while also deciding whether to invest in pollution abatement. The framework provides insights into the credit spr…
Emilio Barucci, Daniele Marazzina, Aldo Nassigh