Papers, wiki, Option Blackboard, encyclopedia, and cards.
In its capacity as debt issuer, the state has played a growing role in financial life over the last 30 years. To examine this role and connect it to shadow banking, the paper develops the concept of the ‘repo trinity’, which captures a set of policy objectives that central banks outlined after the 1998 Russian crisis, the first systemic crisis of collateral-based finance. The repo trinity connected financial stabilit…
This paper develops a three-currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework in which corporate credit is treated as a separate economy, connected to the nominal and real economies through synthetic inflation and credit exchange rates. The framework produces a testable identity. Under joint no-arbitrage, the credit spread of an issuer expressed over the inflation-rateindexed risk-free curve equals the same issuer's credit spre…
In the LIBOR era, banks routinely tied revolving credit facilities to credit-sensitive benchmarks. This study assesses the Across-the-Curve Credit Spread Index (AXI) -- a transparent, transaction-based measure of wholesale bank funding costs -- as a complement to SOFR, summarizing its behavior, construction, and loan-pricing implications. AXI aggregates observable unsecured funding transactions across short- and long…
In this paper, we develop an open-economy macroeconomic model of a Proof-of-Stake network to analyze nominal token-price dynamics and the systemic effects of speculative capital. We first consider a network populated solely by active utility users, who finance network activity through a steady exogenous inflow of fiat currency. We prove the existence of a unique, globally asymptotically stable steady-state equilibriu…
China credit impulse measures the change in new credit growth relative to GDP and is widely used as a leading indicator for Chinese demand and global cyclical momentum.
The Loan Officer Survey tracks bank lending standards and loan demand, providing insight into whether credit supply is tightening or easing in the real economy.
Baltic Dry Index tracks shipping rates for dry bulk commodities and offers a real-economy signal on trade flows, freight conditions, and industrial demand.
US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation reflects the inflation rate implied by the gap between nominal Treasuries and TIPS, serving as a market-based gauge of long-term inflation expectations.
Phillips Curve — The relationship between labor market tightness and inflation dynamics, heavily debated in post-pandemic regimes.
Output Gap — Estimated distance of GDP from potential output, informing policy reaction functions.
GDP Nowcast — High-frequency aggregation of activity data to estimate current-quarter growth in real time.
Purchasing Managers Index — Survey-based diffusion index that often leads industrial production and trade flows.
Consumer Confidence Index — Household expectations that influence spending, labor supply, and political pressure on policy.
Retail Sales Growth — Nominal and real consumption momentum, critical for growth and inflation nowcasts.
Industrial Production — Physical output trends that confirm or contradict financial market cyclical narratives.
Housing Starts — Rate-sensitive construction activity with multiplier effects across materials and labor.
Nonfarm Payrolls — The headline US jobs report that routinely moves rates, FX, and equity index volatility.
Unemployment Rate — Labor slack measure tied to wage pressure, consumption resilience, and recession rule signals.
Wage Growth — Nominal pay momentum that feeds services inflation persistence and Fed reaction functions.
Core PCE Inflation — The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, stripping volatile food and energy components.
CPI Shelter Component — The largest CPI bucket, lagged versus spot rents, creating policy communication traps.
Inflation Expectations Survey — Household and market-based expectations that can de-anchor if policy credibility erodes.
Beveridge Curve — Vacancy-unemployment relationship signaling matching efficiency and structural labor shifts.
Fiscal Multiplier — Estimated GDP impact per unit of government spending or tax change.
Current Account Balance — External imbalance measure linking domestic savings-investment gaps to currency pressure.
Household Savings Rate — Aggregate saving that supports or constrains future consumption and risk asset demand.
Labor Force Participation — Supply-side labor availability affecting wage pressure and potential output estimates.
Unit Labor Costs — Compensation per unit of output — a core driver of services inflation persistence.
Capacity Utilization — How tight industrial capacity is, informing pricing power and capex cycles.
Sahm Rule (Economy).
Credit Impulse Global (Economy).
Inventory Cycle (Economy).
Capex Cycle (Economy).
Housing Affordability (Economy).
Mortgage Rate Lock Volume (Economy).
Office Vacancy Rate (Economy).
Vendor Financing (Economy).
Trade Credit Insurance (Economy).
Semiconductor Cycle (Economy).
AI Capex Supercycle (Economy).
AI Capex Supercycle (Economy).
Anecdote Bias Macro (Economy).
Announcement Effect (Economy).
Austerity Spiral (Economy).
Automatic Stabilizers (Economy).
Baltic Dry Index tracks shipping rates for dry bulk commodities and offers a real-economy signal on trade flows, freight conditions, and industrial demand.
Beveridge Curve — Vacancy-unemployment relationship signaling matching efficiency and structural labor shifts.
Building Permits ASEAN (Economy).
Building Permits Australia (Economy).
Building Permits Brazil (Economy).
Building Permits Canada (Economy).
Building Permits CEEMEA (Economy).
Building Permits China (Economy).
Building Permits core (Economy).
Building Permits EM Asia (Economy).
Building Permits Euro Area (Economy).
Building Permits headline (Economy).
Building Permits India (Economy).
Building Permits Indonesia (Economy).
Building Permits Japan (Economy).
Building Permits Korea (Economy).
Building Permits LatAm (Economy).
Building Permits Mexico (Economy).
Building Permits Nordics (Economy).