Search

Search

Papers, wiki, Option Blackboard, encyclopedia, and cards.

Results for “excess return residual” · papers 7 · wiki 0
Academic Papers · 7arXiv q-fin live 0 · desk corpus 7
arXiv · arXiv · 2026

Beyond Anonymous Order Flow: Wallet Identity as a Feature for Short-Horizon Return Prediction

Conventional public order-book data summarize trading without identifying the accounts behind it. Hyperliquid's Level-4 record also exposes persistent pseudonymous wallet addresses. We reconstruct full-depth books from consensus-ordered messages and evaluate wallet identity as a feature for short-horizon return prediction. The July 1-27, 2026 record covers 17.1 billion messages, 14.3 million aggressive orders by 147,…

Jingqiu Ding, Daojing Zhai
arXiv · arXiv · 2024

Liquidity Adjustment in Multivariate Volatility Modeling: Evidence from Portfolios of Cryptocurrencies and US Stocks

We develop a liquidity-sensitive multivariate volatility framework to improve the estimation of time-varying covariance structures under market frictions. We introduce two novel portfolio-level liquidity measures, liquidity jump and liquidity diffusion, which capture magnitude and volatility of liquidity fluctuation, respectively, and construct liquidity-adjusted return and volatility that reflect real-time liquidity…

Qi Deng
arXiv · arXiv · 2023

Online Learning of Order Flow and Market Impact with Bayesian Change-Point Detection Methods

Financial order flow exhibits a remarkable level of persistence, wherein buy (sell) trades are often followed by subsequent buy (sell) trades over extended periods. This persistence can be attributed to the division and gradual execution of large orders. Consequently, distinct order flow regimes might emerge, which can be identified through suitable time series models applied to market data. In this paper, we propose…

Ioanna-Yvonni Tsaknaki, Fabrizio Lillo, Piero Mazzarisi
arXiv · arXiv · 2013

Hedging and Leveraging: Principal Portfolios of the Capital Asset Pricing Model

The principal portfolios of the standard Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) are analyzed and found to have remarkable hedging and leveraging properties. Principal portfolios implement a recasting of any correlated asset set of N risky securities into an equivalent but uncorrelated set when short sales are allowed. While a determination of principal portfolios in general requires a detailed knowledge of the covariance…

M. Hossein Partovi
arXiv · arXiv · 2012

Market Liquidity and Convexity of Order Book (Evidence From China)

Market liquidity plays a vital role in the field of market micro-structure, because it is the vigor of the financial market. This paper uses a variable called convexity to measure the potential liquidity provided by order-book. Based on the high-frequency data of each stock included in the SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange) 50 Index for the year 2011, we report several statistical properties of convexity and analyze the a…

Kenan Qiao
arXiv · arXiv · 2026

Learning AI Agents, Market Makers, and Stress in Automated Markets

Automated markets increasingly route order flow from learning trading agents through automated market makers (AMMs). We model trader archetypes as AI agents defined by their reward functions and analyze the feedback they create on a constant-product AMM. Herd-dominated and arbitrage-dominated markets of equal size have identical return distributions and turnover, so no rule based on volatility, value-at-risk, stress …

Irene Aldridge
arXiv · arXiv · 2023

Black-Litterman, Bayesian Shrinkage, and Factor Models in Portfolio Selection: You Can Have It All

Mean-variance analysis is widely used in portfolio management to identify the best portfolio that makes an optimal trade-off between expected return and volatility. Yet, this method has its limitations, notably its vulnerability to estimation errors and its reliance on historical data. While shrinkage estimators and factor models have been introduced to improve estimation accuracy through bias-variance trade-offs, an…

Kwong Yu Chong
Wiki Entities · 0
No wiki entities matched.
Option Blackboard · 0
No Option Blackboard entries matched.
Encyclopedia · 0
No encyclopedia foundations matched.
Cards · 0
No cards matched.
← Back to Codex