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Uncovering the risk transmitting path within economic sectors in China is crucial for understanding the stability of the Chinese economic system, especially under the current situation of the China-US trade conflicts. In this paper, we try to uncover the risk spreading channels by means of volatility spillovers within the Chinese sectors using stock market data. By applying the generalized variance decomposition fram…
In recent years, the popularity of artificial intelligence has surged due to its widespread application in various fields. The financial sector has harnessed its advantages for multiple purposes, including the development of automated trading systems designed to interact autonomously with markets to pursue different aims. In this work, we focus on the possibility of recognizing and leveraging intraday price patterns …
Deep or reinforcement learning (RL) approaches have been adapted as reactive agents to quickly learn and respond with new investment strategies for portfolio management under the highly turbulent financial market environments in recent years. In many cases, due to the very complex correlations among various financial sectors, and the fluctuating trends in different financial markets, a deep or reinforcement learning …
Among professionals and academics alike, it is well known that active portfolio management is unable to provide additional risk-adjusted returns relative to their benchmarks. For this reason, passive wealth management has emerged in recent decades to offer returns close to benchmarks at a lower cost. In this article, we first refine the existing results on the theoretical properties of oblique Brownian motion. Then, …
Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable capabilities across a spectrum of tasks in financial services, including report generation, chatbots, sentiment analysis, regulatory compliance, investment advisory, financial knowledge retrieval, and summarization. However, their intrinsic complexity and lack of transparency pose significant challenges, especially in the highly regulated financial sector, where interpr…
Sustainable finance, which integrates environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria on financial decisions rests on the fact that money should be used for good purposes. Thus, the financial sector is also expected to play a more important role to decarbonise the global economy. To align financial flows with a pathway towards a low-carbon economy, investors should be able to integrate in their financial decision…
The credit rating is an evaluation of a company's credit risk that values the ability to pay back the debt and predict the likelihood of the debtor defaulting. There are various features influencing credit rating. Therefore, it is essential to select substantive features to explore the main reason for credit rating change. To address this issue, this paper exploited Principal Component Analysis and Factor Analysis as…
We consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure of such portfolio losses, we estimate their empirical pairwise copulas. Instead of a Gaussian dependence, we typically find a strong asymmetry in the copulas. Concurrent large portfolio losses are much more likely than small ones. Studying the dependences of th…
The European debt purchase market as measured by the total book value of purchased debt approached 25bn euros in 2020 and it was growing at double-digit rates. This is an example of how big the debt collection and debt purchase industry has grown and the important impact it has in the financial sector. However, in order to ensure an adequate return during the debt collection process, a good estimation of the propensi…
It had been believed in the conventional practice that the risk of a bank going bankrupt is lessened in a straightforward manner by transferring the risk of loan defaults. But the failure of American International Group in 2008 posed a more complex aspect of financial contagion. This study presents an extension of the asset network systemic risk model (ANWSER) to investigate whether credit default swaps mitigate or i…
Financial markets are inherently non-stationary, exhibiting frequent regime shifts and structural changes that render traditional Portfolio Management (PM) approaches ineffective. Existing remedies, such as rolling-window retraining and naive online fine-tuning, are hindered by high computational costs and insufficient knowledge utilization, respectively, resulting in low returns and limited adaptability. Continual l…
Geometric mean market makers (G3Ms), such as Uniswap and Balancer, comprise a popular class of automated market makers (AMMs) defined by the following rule: the reserves of the AMM before and after each trade must have the same (weighted) geometric mean. This paper extends several results known for constant-weight G3Ms to the general case of G3Ms with time-varying and potentially stochastic weights. These results inc…
Market liquidity plays a vital role in the field of market micro-structure, because it is the vigor of the financial market. This paper uses a variable called convexity to measure the potential liquidity provided by order-book. Based on the high-frequency data of each stock included in the SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange) 50 Index for the year 2011, we report several statistical properties of convexity and analyze the a…
In this paper we investigate novel applications of a new class of equations which we call time-delayed backward stochastic differential equations. Time-delayed BSDEs may arise in finance when we want to find an investment strategy and an investment portfolio which should replicate a liability or meet a target depending on the applied strategy or the past values of the portfolio. In this setting, a managed investment …
News may reveal systematic risk, but whether its context enhances the construction of systematic risk factors is still unclear. We seek to test whether utilizing a sentence transformer represents an improvement over techniques such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) in the coherence of topic term lists generated from unstructured text data. To test this, the same collection of unstructured text data comprising of 3…
The comparative analysis of banks' financial statements poses significant challenges for automated question answering systems due to their complexity, substantial length, technical language, and inhomogeneity of both textual and numerical content across different jurisdictions and institutions. We introduce FinRAG-QA, a novel benchmark dataset for financial question answering, which comprises 999 practitioner-curated…
In financial markets, accurately measuring the risk of future fluctuations in asset prices is of paramount importance. Studies such as Carr and Madan have shown that the expected value of the quadratic variation of log prices can be expressed as an integral of European option prices over a continuum of strikes. This has led to the widespread estimation of model-free volatility (implied variance). However, this theore…
We develop a unified model in which AI adoption in financial markets generates systemic risk through three mutually reinforcing channels: performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency. Within an extended rational expectations framework with endogenous adoption, we derive an equilibrium systemic risk coupling $r(φ) = φρβ/λ'(φ)$, where $φ$ is the AI adoption share, $ρ$ the algorithmic signal co…