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This paper investigates the impact of the adoption of generative AI on financial stability. We conduct laboratory-style experiments using large language models to replicate classic studies on herd behavior in trading decisions. Our results show that AI agents make more rational decisions than humans, relying predominantly on private information over market trends. Increased reliance on AI-powered trading advice could…
We have developed a novel risk management measure called the concentration risk indicator (CRI). The CRI has been created to address drawbacks with prevailing methodologies and to supplement existing methods. Modified and adapted from the Herfindahl-Hirschman (HH) index, the CRI can give a single numeric score that can be helpful to evaluate the extent of risks that arise from holding concentrated portfolios. We disc…
Financial system being the place of metting capital flows (equality between saving and investment), a volatility of capital flows can destroy the robustness and good working of financial system, it means subvert financial stability. The same a weak financial system, few regulated and bad manage can exacerbate volatility of capital flows and finely undermine financial stability. The present study provides evidence on …
Interbank lending and borrowing occur when financial institutions seek to settle and refinance their mutual positions over time and circumstances. This interactive process involves money creation at the aggregate level. Coordination mismatch on interbank credit may trigger systemic crises. This happened when, since summer 2007, interbank credit coordination did not longer work smoothly across financial institutions, …
This review of the book "The Challenge of Financial Stability: A New Model and its Applications" by Goodhart C.A.E. and Tsomocos D.P. highlights the potential of the framework of strategic partial default of banks with credit chain on the interbank market for further theoretical and applied research on financial stability.
This paper investigates whether a financial system can be made more stable if financial institutions share risk by exchanging contingent convertible (CoCo) debt obligations. The question is framed in a financial network model of debt and equity interlinkages with the addition of a variant of the CoCo that converts continuously when a bank's equity-debt ratio drops to a trigger level. The main theoretical result is a …
Using data on 17 listed public banks from Russia over the period 2008 to 2016, we analyze whether international oil prices affect the bank stability in an oil-dependent country. We posit that a decrease in international oil prices has a negative long-run macroeconomic impact for an oil-exporting country, which further deteriorates the bank financial stability. More specifically, a decrease in international oil prices…
Understanding stock market instability is a key question in financial management as practitioners seek to forecast breakdowns in asset co-movements which expose portfolios to rapid and devastating collapses in value. The structure of these co-movements can be described as a graph where companies are represented by nodes and edges capture correlations between their price movements. Learning a timely indicator of co-mo…
This paper investigates the investment behaviour of a large unregulated financial institution (FI) with CARA risk preferences. It shows how the FI optimizes its trading to account for market illiquidity using an extension of the Almgren-Chriss market impact model of multiple risky assets. This expected utility optimization problem over the set of adapted strategies turns out to have the same solutions as a mean-varia…
Remarks at Brookings-Chicago Booth Task Force on Financial Stability (TFFS) meeting, panel on market liquidity (delivered via videoconference).
In its capacity as debt issuer, the state has played a growing role in financial life over the last 30 years. To examine this role and connect it to shadow banking, the paper develops the concept of the ‘repo trinity’, which captures a set of policy objectives that central banks outlined after the 1998 Russian crisis, the first systemic crisis of collateral-based finance. The repo trinity connected financial stabilit…
We address the problem of banking system resilience by applying off-equilibrium statistical physics to a system of particles, representing the economic agents, modelled according to the theoretical foundation of the current banking regulation, the so called Merton-Vasicek model. Economic agents are attracted to each other to exchange `economic energy', forming a network of trades. When the capital level of one econom…
Italy and the Eurozone are heading in the year 2012 into a financial depression of unprecedented magnitude, with a forthcoming multitude of often contradictory public economic and financial stability emergency interventions whose ultimate endogenous and exogenous effects on public and private health spending and on the sustainability of universal coverage are difficult to predict ex ante. The research question is to …
This study explores the potential impact of introducing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on financial stability in an emerging dual-currency economy (Romania), where the domestic currency (RON) coexists with the euro. It develops an integrated analytical framework combining econometrics, machine learning, and behavioural modelling. CBDC adoption probabilities are estimated using XGBoost and logistic regression …
Our research investigates the relationship between eco-innovation and earnings management among 567 firms listed on the FTSE All-Share Index from 2014 to 2022. By examining how sustainability-driven innovation influences financial reporting practices, we explore the strategic motivations behind income smoothing in firms engaged in environmental initiatives. The findings reveal a positive association between eco-innov…
This research investigates the multifaceted relationship underlying capital structure dynamics along with financial performance as a result of mergers and acquisitions, or M&As, in Indian banks. In the face of increasing competition, banks have deliberately embraced M&A as a strategy of improving commercial prospects and maintaining financial stability. The primary goal of this study is to examine the changes in the …
Credit risk is a crucial topic in the field of financial stability, especially at this time given the profound impact of the ongoing pandemic on the world economy. This study provides insight into the impact of credit risk on the financial performance of 26 commercial banks in Vietnam for the period from 2006 to 2016. The financial performance of commercial banks is measured by return on assets (ROA), return on equit…
We study how to assess the potential benefit of diversifying an equity portfolio by investing within and across equity sectors. We analyse 20 years of US stock price data, which includes the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 market crash, as well as periods of financial stability, to determine the `all weather' nature of equity portfolios. We establish that one may use the leading eigenvalue of the cross…
Bank CDS Index tracks the cost of insuring major bank credit risk and serves as a real-time indicator of banking-system stress and confidence.
Deposit outflow rate measures the pace at which deposits leave the banking system or individual banks, helping assess funding stability and confidence.