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Retractions serve as an indicator of failures in research integrity, yet most analyses focus on absolute counts rather than risk per paper. We use one of the largest open bibliographic databases to develop incidence metrics normalized by population: retractions per publication and per active author annually. Applying an epidemiological framework that models counts with exposure, we find evidence of exponential growth…
This article is part of a comprehensive research project on liquidity risk in asset management, which can be divided into three dimensions. The first dimension covers the modeling of the liability liquidity risk (or funding liquidity), the second dimension is dedicated to the modeling of the asset liquidity risk (or market liquidity), whereas the third dimension considers the management of the asset-liability liquidi…
This article is part of a comprehensive research project on liquidity risk in asset management, which can be divided into three dimensions. The first dimension covers liability liquidity risk (or funding liquidity) modeling, the second dimension focuses on asset liquidity risk (or market liquidity) modeling, and the third dimension considers the asset-liability management of the liquidity gap risk (or asset-liability…
This article is part of a comprehensive research project on liquidity risk in asset management, which can be divided into three dimensions. The first dimension covers liability liquidity risk (or funding liquidity) modeling, the second dimension focuses on asset liquidity risk (or market liquidity) modeling, and the third dimension considers asset-liability liquidity risk management (or asset-liability matching). The…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate funding liquidity risk and contagion are available but they require not only banks' bilateral exposures data but also balance sheet data with sufficient granularity, which are hardly a…
We propose a unified structural credit risk model incorporating both insolvency and illiquidity risks, in order to investigate how a firm's default probability depends on the liquidity risk associated with its financing structure. We assume the firm finances its risky assets by mainly issuing short- and long-term debt. Short-term debt can have either a discrete or a more realistic staggered tenor structure. At rollov…
Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce heavy-tailed distributions, negligible linear autocorrelation, and persistent volatility clustering. We developed a hybrid hidden Markov framework that discretized excess growth rate…
An order-book market whose liquidity provision is anchored to a fundamental value carries a restoring force: the price mean-reverts to value and the book refills after a shock. We show this restoring force is a robust intrinsic stabiliser and identify it causally-dialling the anchor down removes the mean-reversion, and a leverage-driven fire-sale then self-sustains. Separately, we ask whether a stressed market transm…
Automated Market Makers based on concentrated liquidity, such as Uniswap v3, significantly improve capital efficiency but expose Liquidity Providers (LPs) to adverse selection costs, formalized as Loss-Versus-Rebalancing (LVR). While theoretical literature quantifies these costs, the interplay between realistic blockchain microstructure and endogenous pricing mechanisms remains under-explored. This paper develops a g…
Before the 2008 financial crisis, most research in financial mathematics focused on pricing options without considering the effects of counterparties' defaults, illiquidity problems, and the role of the sale and repurchase agreement (Repo) market. Recently, models were proposed to address this by computing a total valuation adjustment (XVA) of derivatives; however without considering a potential crisis in the market.…
Order flow is toxic when it adversely selects market makers, who may be unaware they are providing liquidity at a loss. We present a new procedure to estimate flow toxicity based on volume imbalance and trade intensity (the VPIN toxicity metric). VPIN is updated in volume time, making it applicable to the high-frequency world, and it does not require the intermediate estimation of non-observable parameters or the app…
We provide a model that links an asset's market liquidity (i.e., the ease with which it is traded) and traders' funding liquidity (i.e., the ease with which they can obtain funding). Traders provide market liquidity, and their ability to do so depends on their availability of funding. Conversely, traders' funding, i.e., their capital and margin requirements, depends on the assets' market liquidity. We show that, unde…
ABSTRACT We find that liquidity is priced in corporate yield spreads. Using a battery of liquidity measures covering over 4,000 corporate bonds and spanning both investment grade and speculative categories, we find that more illiquid bonds earn higher yield spreads, and an improvement in liquidity causes a significant reduction in yield spreads. These results hold after controlling for common bond‐specific, firm‐spec…
ABSTRACT We examine the role of price discovery in the U.S. Treasury market through the empirical relationship between orderflow, liquidity, and the yield curve. We find that orderflow imbalances (excess buying or selling pressure) account for up to 26% of the day‐to‐day variation in yields on days without major macroeconomic announcements. The effect of orderflow on yields is permanent and strongest when liquidity i…
In this paper, we consider a generic interest rate market in the presence of roll-over risk, which generates spreads in spot/forward term rates. We do not require classical absence of arbitrage and rely instead on a minimal market viability assumption, which enables us to work in the context of the benchmark approach. In a Markovian setting, we extend the control theoretic approach of Gombani & Runggaldier (2013) and…
Abstract We identify fixed-income mutual funds as an important contributor to the unusually high selling pressure in liquid asset markets during the COVID-19 crisis. We show that mutual funds experienced pronounced investor outflows amplified by their liquidity transformation. In meeting redemptions, funds followed a pecking order by first selling their liquid assets, including Treasuries and high-quality corporate b…
Abstract This paper examines the price differences between very liquid on-the-run U.S. Treasury securities and less liquid off-the-run securities over the on/off cycle. Comparing pairs of securities in time-series regressions allows us to disregard any fixed cross-sectional differences between securities. Also, since the liquidity of Treasury notes varies predictably over time, we can distinguish between current and …
Abstract In this paper, we identify jumps in U.S. Treasury-bond (T-bond) prices and investigate what causes such unexpected large price changes. In particular, we examine the relative importance of macroeconomic news announcements versus variation in market liquidity in explaining the observed jumps in the U.S. Treasury market. We show that while jumps occur mostly at prescheduled macroeconomic announcement times, an…
DXY Index measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies and serves as a broad gauge of dollar strength and global financial conditions.
USD/JPY cross-currency basis measures the extra cost of obtaining dollars through FX swap markets and is a key indicator of offshore dollar funding stress.