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For more than four decades, the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has served as a benchmark for delivering reasonable returns without excessive risk. More recently, a 50/30/20 stock/bond/alternative portfolio has been suggested. We use gold as the alternative and as an inflation hedge. In this paper we ask: how much improvement over these benchmark fixed-weight portfolios can be obtained using widely available public data a…
Historically, gold and silver have played distinct roles in traditional monetary systems. While gold has primarily been revered as a superior store of value, prompting individuals to hoard it, silver has commonly been used as a medium of exchange. As the financial world evolves, the emergence of cryptocurrencies has introduced a new paradigm of value and exchange. However, the store-of-value characteristic of these d…
This research mainly explores the characteristics of different strategies and whether VIX INDEX positively influences the investment portfolio in any period. Our portfolio has six significant cryptocurrencies, VIX INDEX and gold. We perform parameter estimation on all raw data and bring the two types into different investment strategies, complete them effectively according to other characteristics, and compare the re…
This non-linear relationship in the joint time-frequency domain has been studied for the Indian National Stock Exchange (NSE) with the international Gold price and WTI Crude Price being converted from Dollar to Indian National Rupee based on that week's closing exchange rate. Though a good correlation was obtained during some period, but as a whole no such cointegration relation can be found out. Using the \textit{Di…
Gold and currency markets form a unique pair with specific interactions and dynamics. We focus on the efficiency ranking of gold markets with respect to the currency of purchase. By utilizing the Efficiency Index (EI) based on fractal dimension, approximate entropy and long-term memory on a wide portfolio of 142 gold price series for different currencies, we construct the efficiency ranking based on the extended EI m…
We test whether simple, interpretable state variables-trend and momentum-can generate durable out-of-sample alpha in one of the world's most liquid assets, gold. Using a rolling 10-year training and 6-month testing walk-forward from 2015 to 2025 (2,793 trading days), we convert a smoothed trend-momentum regime signal into volatility-targeted, friction-aware positions through fractional, impact-adjusted Kelly sizing a…
Predicting the stock market is a big challenge for the machine learning world. It is known how difficult it is to have accurate and consistent predictions with ML models. Some architectures are able to capture the movement of stocks but almost never are able to be launched to the production world. We present Achilles, with a classical architecture of LSTM(Long Short Term Memory) neural network this model is able to p…
As the first crisis faced by Crypto-assets, Covid-19 updated the debate about their safehaven properties. Our paper tries to analyze the safe-haven properties of Crypto-assets and Gold for European assets. We find that Gold has not been more efficient than Cryptoassets (Tether, Cardano and Dogecoin) as safe-haven during the market crash due to Covid-19 in March 2020. We also found that during the study period Bitcoin…
This paper examines the determinants of the volatility of futures prices and basis for three commodities: gold, oil and bitcoin -- often dubbed solid, liquid and digital gold -- by using contract-by-contract analysis which has been previously applied to crude oil futures volatility investigations. By extracting the spot and futures daily prices as well as the maturity, trading volume and open interest data for the th…
A reputation of high volatility accompanies the emergence of Bitcoin as a financial asset. This paper intends to nuance this reputation and clarify our understanding of Bitcoin's volatility. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closing prices and log-returns data going from September 2014 to January 2021, we find that Bitcoin is a prime example of an asset for which the two conceptions of volatility diverge. We show that…
This paper aims to investigate the role of gold as a hedge and/or safe haven against oil price and currency market movements for medium (calm period) and large (extreme movement) fluctuations. In revisiting the role of gold, our study proposes new insights into the literature. First, our empirical design relaxes the assumption of homogeneous investors in favour of agents with different horizons. Second, we develop a …
We demonstrate that the tail dependence should always be taken into account as a proxy for systematic risk of loss for investments. We provide the clear statistical evidence of that the structure of investment portfolios on a regulated market should be adjusted to the price of gold. Our finding suggests that the active bartering of oil for goods would prevent collapsing the national market facing international sancti…
This paper provides an innovative perspective on the role of gold as a hedge and safe haven. We use a quantile-on-quantile regression approach to capture the dependence structure between gold returns and changes in uncertainty under different gold market conditions, while considering the nuances of uncertainty levels. To capture the core uncertainty effects on gold returns, a dynamic factor model is used. This techni…
This paper analyzes the direction of the causality between crude oil, gold and stock markets for the largest economy in the world with respect to such markets, the US. To do so, we apply non-linear Granger causality tests. We find a nonlinear causal relationship among the three markets considered, with the causality going in all directions, when the full sample and different subsamples are considered. However, we fin…
The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis technique is employed to analyze the time series of gold consumer price index (CPI) and the market trend of three world's highest gold consuming countries, namely China, India and Turkey for the period: 1993-July 2013. Various multifractal variables, such as the generalized Hurst exponent, the multifractal exponent and the singularity spectrum, are calculated and the re…
We have studied statistical characteristics of five share price time series. For each stock price, we estimated a best fit quantitative model for the monthly closing price as based on the decomposition into two defining consumer price indices selected from a large set of CPIs. It was found that there are two pairs of similar models (Bank of America/Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs/JPMorgan Chase) with a standalone mo…
Prediction markets have gained adoption as on-chain mechanisms for aggregating information, with platforms such as Polymarket demonstrating demand for stablecoin-denominated markets. However, denominating in non-interest-bearing stablecoins introduces inefficiencies: participants face opportunity costs relative to the fiat risk-free rate, and Bitcoin holders in particular lose exposure to BTC appreciation when conver…
Wash trading, the practice of simultaneously placing buy and sell orders for the same asset to inflate trading volume, has been prevalent in cryptocurrency markets. This paper investigates whether wash traders in Bitcoin act deliberately to exploit market conditions and identifies the characteristics of such manipulative behavior. Using a unique dataset of 18 million transactions from Mt. Gox, once the largest Bitcoi…
Gold price reflects demand for a non-yielding reserve asset and is often used as a signal for real yields, macro uncertainty, and confidence in fiat systems.
Gold Real Yields Correlation — Gold as non-yielding asset inversely sensitive to real rates and USD.
Long one commodity, short a related one — WTI/Brent, gold/silver, corn/wheat, gas/power — a relative-value family across complexes.
Gold, silver, copper, and sometimes aluminum, zinc, nickel — a mix of monetary metals and industrial cycle metals.
Risk-on / risk-off (RORO) is a one-factor tape: the same risk appetite impulse hits credit, EM, high-beta equity, and vol in one direction while Treasuries, the dollar, and gold take the other side.
The Great Depression was a multi-year collapse of output, prices, and banks after the 1929 crash, amplified by the gold standard, Fed errors, and a wave of bank failures — the defining 20th-century crisis.
The Panic of 1873 began with railroad and bank failures in Vienna and New York and opened the Long Depression — a deflationary, gold-standard, over-built-railway crash.
Gold price reflects demand for a non-yielding reserve asset and is often used as a signal for real yields, macro uncertainty, and confidence in fiat systems.
Gold Real Yields Correlation — Gold as non-yielding asset inversely sensitive to real rates and USD.
The Great Depression was a multi-year collapse of output, prices, and banks after the 1929 crash, amplified by the gold standard, Fed errors, and a wave of bank failures — the defining 20th-century crisis.
Long one commodity, short a related one — WTI/Brent, gold/silver, corn/wheat, gas/power — a relative-value family across complexes.
Gold, silver, copper, and sometimes aluminum, zinc, nickel — a mix of monetary metals and industrial cycle metals.
The Panic of 1873 began with railroad and bank failures in Vienna and New York and opened the Long Depression — a deflationary, gold-standard, over-built-railway crash.
Risk-on / risk-off (RORO) is a one-factor tape: the same risk appetite impulse hits credit, EM, high-beta equity, and vol in one direction while Treasuries, the dollar, and gold take the other side.