arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2021
The liquidity risk factor of security market plays an important role in the formulation of trading strategies. A more liquid stock market means that the securities can be bought or sold more easily. As a sound indicator of market liquidity, the transaction duration is the focus of this study. We concentrate on estimating the probability density function p(Δt_(i+1) |G_i) where Δt_(i+1) represents the duration of the (…
Yong Shi, Wei Dai, Wen Long, Bo Li
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
The balancing market in the energy sector plays a critical role in physically and financially balancing the supply and demand. Modeling dynamics in the balancing market can provide valuable insights and prognosis for power grid stability and secure energy supply. While complex machine learning models can achieve high accuracy, their black-box nature severely limits the model interpretability. In this paper, we explor…
Oskar Våle, Shiliang Zhang, Sabita Maharjan, Gro Klæboe
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
This paper develops an autonomous framework for systematic factor investing via agentic AI. Rather than relying on sequential manual prompts, our approach operationalizes the model as a self-directed engine that endogenously formulates interpretable trading signals. To mitigate data snooping biases, this closed-loop system imposes strict empirical discipline through out-of-sample validation and economic rationale req…
Allen Yikuan Huang, Zheqi Fan
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
The financial market is known to be highly sensitive to news. Therefore, effectively incorporating news data into quantitative trading remains an important challenge. Existing approaches typically rely on manually designed rules and/or handcrafted features. In this work, we directly use the news sentiment scores derived from large language models, together with raw price and volume data, as observable inputs for rein…
Qing-Yu Lan, Zhan-He Wang, Jun-Qian Jiang, Yu-Tong Wang, Yun-Song Piao
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
Cryptocurrency is a cryptography-based digital asset with extremely volatile prices. Around USD 70 billion worth of cryptocurrency is traded daily on exchanges. Trading cryptocurrency is difficult due to the inherent volatility of the crypto market. This study investigates whether Reinforcement Learning (RL) can enhance decision-making in cryptocurrency algorithmic trading compared to traditional methods. In order to…
Hongshen Yang, Avinash Malik
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
According to The Exchange Act, 1934 unlawful insider trading is the abuse of access to privileged corporate information. While a blurred line between "routine" the "opportunistic" insider trading exists, detection of strategies that insiders mold to maneuver fair market prices to their advantage is an uphill battle for hand-engineered approaches. In the context of detailed high-dimensional financial and trade data th…
Krishna Neupane, Igor Griva
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
In quantitative investment, constructing characteristic-sorted portfolios is a crucial strategy for asset allocation. Traditional methods transform raw stock data of varying frequencies into predictive characteristic factors for asset sorting, often requiring extensive manual design and misalignment between prediction and optimization goals. To address these challenges, we introduce Direct Sorted Portfolio Optimizati…
Jianyuan Zhong, Zhijian Xu, Saizhuo Wang, Xiangyu Wen, Jian Guo
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
This paper introduces StockGPT, an autoregressive ``number'' model trained and tested on 70 million daily U.S.\ stock returns over nearly 100 years. Treating each return series as a sequence of tokens, StockGPT automatically learns the hidden patterns predictive of future returns via its attention mechanism. On a held-out test sample from 2001 to 2023, daily and monthly rebalanced long-short portfolios formed from St…
Dat Mai
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
Decentralized finance (DeFi) is an integral component of the blockchain ecosystem, enabling a range of financial activities through smart-contract-based protocols. Traditional DeFi governance typically involves manual parameter adjustments by protocol teams or token holder votes, and is thus prone to human bias and financial risks, undermining the system's integrity and security. While existing efforts aim to establi…
Jiahua Xu, Yebo Feng, Daniel Perez, Benjamin Livshits
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
The ability to construct a realistic simulator of financial exchanges, including reproducing the dynamics of the limit order book, can give insight into many counterfactual scenarios, such as a flash crash, a margin call, or changes in macroeconomic outlook. In recent years, agent-based models have been developed that reproduce many features of an exchange, as summarised by a set of stylised facts and statistics. How…
Namid R. Stillman, Rory Baggott, Justin Lyon, Jianfei Zhang, Dingqiu Zhu
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2022
Manual approvals are still used by banks and other NGOs to approve loans. It takes time and is prone to mistakes because it is controlled by a bank employee. Several fields of machine learning mining technologies have been utilized to enhance various areas of credit rating forecast. A major goal of this research is to look at current sentiment analysis techniques that are being used to generate creditworthiness.
A. N. M. Sajedul Alam, Junaid Bin Kibria, Arnob Kumar Dey, Zawad Alam, Shifat Zaman
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2022
Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern forecasting techniques based on machine learning can be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily time-series. Moreover, econometric studies have shown that increasing the number of daily observations with high-frequency intraday data helps to improve volatility predictions. In this work,…
Fernando Moreno-Pino, Stefan Zohren
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2021
Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to automatically detect the dependence of the future volatility on past returns, past volatilities and the stochastic noise, and thus provides a flexible volatility model without the…
Xiuqin Xu, Ying Chen
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2020
Instead of conducting manual factor construction based on traditional and behavioural finance analysis, academic researchers and quantitative investment managers have leveraged Genetic Programming (GP) as an automatic feature construction tool in recent years, which builds reverse polish mathematical expressions from trading data into new factors. However, with the development of deep learning, more powerful feature …
Jie Fang, Jianwu Lin, Shutao Xia, Yong Jiang, Zhikang Xia
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2020
Ant Credit Pay is a consumer credit service in Ant Financial Service Group. Similar to credit card, loan default is one of the major risks of this credit product. Hence, effective algorithm for default prediction is the key to losses reduction and profits increment for the company. However, the challenges facing in our scenario are different from those in conventional credit card service. The first one is scalability…
Jianbin Lin, Zhiqiang Zhang, Jun Zhou, Xiaolong Li, Jingli Fang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2018
Intense volatility in financial markets affect humans worldwide. Therefore, relatively accurate prediction of volatility is critical. We suggest that massive data sources resulting from human interaction with the Internet may offer a new perspective on the behavior of market participants in periods of large market movements. First we select 28 key words, which are related to finance as indicators of the public mood a…
Yu-Long Zhou, Ren-Jie Han, Qian Xu, Wei-Ke Zhang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2016
The author seeks to develop a model to alter the bid-offer spread, currently quoted by market makers, that varies with the market and trading conditions. The dynamic nature of financial markets and trading, as with the rest of social sciences, where changes can be observed and decisions can be made by participants to influence the system, means that this model has to be adaptive and include a feedback loop that alter…
Ravi Kashyap
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2010
The object of this contribution is to present the ideas behind the thinking of the French economist Pierre-Joseph Proudhon (1809-1865) in relation to the causes and effects of Stock market speculation. It is based upon the works of this author but particularly on his "Manuel du spéculateur à la Bourse" (Stock Market Speculator Manual) edited in 1857 in Paris. Compared to the markets of today, however, the stock marke…
Jean-Claude Juhel, Dominique Dufour