arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Coupled feedback networks are often monitored channel by channel even though cross-channel paths alter both stability margins and transmitted disturbances. We study identification of a structured feedback matrix L_t = Phi diag(gamma_t) in an output-only setting: no commanded, probing, or reference input exists -- only temporally separated outputs and the scheduling gains gamma_t are observed, while the coupling respo…
Jihwan Woo
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Financial observations are continuous, heterogeneous, and noisy, whereas decoder-only next-token models are usually built around discrete symbolic inputs. We introduce Vector-Input Autoregressive Inference for Ordinal-Return Modeling (VAIOM), a decoder-only Transformer for probabilistic next-return modeling on one-hour foreign-exchange bars. VAIOM separates input representation from output likelihood: continuous mult…
Yiming Ma, Xinyu Chen
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
In a deep forecasting pipeline for fat-tailed financial returns at short horizons, which matters more - the backbone architecture or the output head? We compare four modern backbones (TimesNet, DLinear, N-BEATS, iTransformer) under three output heads: a point head, a single-Gaussian density head, and a Gaussian mixture density head with K=4 components. On S and P 500 monthly log-returns (1871-2023) under anchored wal…
Sichao He, Yansong Zhang
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of consistency and reproducibility in Large Language Model (LLM) outputs in finance and accounting research. We evaluate how consistently LLMs produce outputs given identical inputs through extensive experimentation with 50 independent runs across five common tasks: classification, sentiment analysis, summarization, text generation, and prediction. Using three Op…
Julian Junyan Wang, Victor Xiaoqi Wang
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
High-frequency trading requires fast data processing without information lags for precise stock price forecasting. This high-paced stock price forecasting is usually based on vectors that need to be treated as sequential and time-independent signals due to the time irregularities that are inherent in high-frequency trading. A well-documented and tested method that considers these time-irregularities is a type of recu…
Adamantios Ntakaris, Moncef Gabbouj, Juho Kanniainen
arXiv · arXiv · 2018
The position of the EWS (economy-wide substitution)-ratio vector determines the Rybczynski sign pattern, which expresses the factor endowment--commodity output relationships, and the Stolper-Samuelson sign pattern, which expresses the commodity price--factor price relationships in a three-factor two-good general equilibrium trade model (see Nakada (2016a)). In this article, we show that the EWS-ratio vector exists on…
Yoshiaki Nakada
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Multi-agent LLM decision systems for portfolio management still lack a principled way to assign credit across specialist agents, remain vulnerable to cold-start dominance under regime shifts, and offer limited transparency into how final allocations are formed. We propose Market Regime Council (MRC), a cooperative multi-agent decision system that computes exact Shapley credits across all single, pairwise, and Grand-c…
Yunhua Pei, Zerui Ge, Jin Zheng, John Cartlidge
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
This paper presents a realistic simulated stock market where large language models (LLMs) act as heterogeneous competing trading agents. The open-source framework incorporates a persistent order book with market and limit orders, partial fills, dividends, and equilibrium clearing alongside agents with varied strategies, information sets, and endowments. Agents submit standardized decisions using structured outputs an…
Alejandro Lopez-Lira
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
This study delves into the analysis of financial markets through the lens of Wyckoff Phases, a framework devised by Richard D. Wyckoff in the early 20th century. Focusing on the accumulation pattern within the Wyckoff framework, the research explores the phases of trading range and secondary test, elucidating their significance in understanding market dynamics and identifying potential trading opportunities. By disse…
Jai Pal
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
One approach to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to incentivize carbon capturing and carbon reducing projects while simultaneously penalising excess GHG output. In this work, we present a novel market framework and characterise the optimal behaviour of GHG offset credit (OC) market participants in both single-player and two-player settings. The single player setting is posed as an optimal stopping and contr…
Liam Welsh, Sebastian Jaimungal
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
In quantitative finance, machine learning methods are essential for alpha generation. This study introduces a new approach that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization. During the COVID period (2019-2022), this dual-model approach achieved a 83% return with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77. It incorporates two risk models to enhance risk management, showin…
Tiago Monteiro
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
High-frequency trading (HFT) that executes algorithmic trading in short time scales, has recently occupied the majority of cryptocurrency market. Besides traditional quantitative trading methods, reinforcement learning (RL) has become another appealing approach for HFT due to its terrific ability of handling high-dimensional financial data and solving sophisticated sequential decision-making problems, \emph{e.g.,} hi…
Chuqiao Zong, Chaojie Wang, Molei Qin, Lei Feng, Xinrun Wang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
In this paper, we explore potential uses of generative AI models, such as ChatGPT, for investment portfolio selection. Trusting investment advice from Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT) models is a challenge due to model "hallucinations", necessitating careful verification and validation of the output. Therefore, we take an alternative approach. We use ChatGPT to obtain a universe of stocks from S&P500 market i…
Oleksandr Romanko, Akhilesh Narayan, Roy H. Kwon
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2013
Credit risk management in Italy is characterized, in the period June 2008 to June 2012, by frequent (frequency=0.5 cycles per year) and intense (peak amplitude: mean=39.2 billion Euros, s.e.=2.83 billion Euros) quarterly contractions and expansions around the mean (915.4 billion Euros, s.e.=3.59 billion Euros) of the nominal total credit used by non-financial corporations. Such frequent and intense fluctuations are f…
Stefano Olgiati, Alessandro Danovi
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
We propose ARBITER, a risk-neutral neural operator for learning joint SPX-VIX term structures under no-arbitrage constraints. ARBITER maps market states to an operator that outputs implied volatility and variance curves while enforcing static arbitrage (calendar, vertical, butterfly), Lipschitz bounds, and monotonicity. The model couples operator learning with constrained decoders and is trained with extragradient-st…
Jian'an Zhang
arXiv · arXiv · 2010
Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the U.K.). The data used range from 1991:Q1 to 2009:Q1. For each country, we extract the long run trend and the cyclical component of real economic activity, while the corresponding inte…
Periklis Gogas, Ioannis Pragidis
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Decentralized exchanges record trading and liquidity provision on public blockchains, but empirical analysis requires interpreting these records and linking them to execution metadata. dexamine is a Python package that parses Uniswap v2 and v3 events on Ethereum. It converts transaction receipt logs into observations of trades and liquidity changes, with token quantities, pool state, transaction order, and gas inform…
Magnus Hansson
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Generating realistic synthetic option prices requires implied volatility as an input, yet implied volatility is itself derived from observed option prices, creating a circular dependency that limits synthetic data for machine-learning and risk-analysis applications. We break this circularity with a pipeline in which implied volatility emerges as an output of a structural model of equity returns. A Jump Hidden Markov …
Julia Sun, Zheyu Jin, Jiawei Zhang, Jeffrey D. Varner