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It is a difficult task for both professional investors and individual traders continuously making profit in stock market. With the development of computer science and deep reinforcement learning, Buy\&Hold (B\&H) has been oversteped by many artificial intelligence trading algorithms. However, the information and process are not enough, which limit the performance of reinforcement learning algorithms. Thus, we propose…
This paper presents novel results generated from a new simulation model of a contemporary financial market, that cast serious doubt on the previously widely accepted view of the relative performance of various well-known public-domain automated-trading algorithms. Various public-domain trading algorithms have been proposed over the past 25 years in a kind of arms-race, where each new trading algorithm was compared to…
The pricing of American style and multiple exercise options is a very challenging problem in mathematical finance. One usually employs a Least-Square Monte Carlo approach (Longstaff-Schwartz method) for the evaluation of conditional expectations which arise in the Backward Dynamic Programming principle for such optimal stopping or stochastic control problems in a Markovian framework. Unfortunately, these Least-Square…
We empirically study the trading activity in the electronic on-book segment and in the dealership off-book segment of the London Stock Exchange, investigating separately the trading of active market members and of other market participants which are non-members. We find that (i) the volume distribution of off-book transactions has a significantly fatter tail than the one of on-book transactions, (ii) groups of member…
Automated market maker (AMM) fee rules are often evaluated by liquidity-provider (LP) welfare, but that objective mixes fee revenue, adverse-selection loss (loss-versus-rebalancing, LVR), routing response, and liquidity supply. Fixed-fee Uniswap v3 history cannot separate these channels or identify counterfactual trader-facing dynamic-fee rules. Real fee-related variation nonetheless exists: the Uniswap protocol-fee …
Passive liquidity providers (LPs) in automated market makers (AMMs) face losses due to adverse selection (LVR), which static trading fees often fail to offset in practice. We study the key determinants of LP profitability in a dynamic reduced-form model where an AMM operates in parallel with a centralized exchange (CEX), traders route their orders optimally to the venue offering the better price, and arbitrageurs exp…
This paper develops a three-currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework in which corporate credit is treated as a separate economy, connected to the nominal and real economies through synthetic inflation and credit exchange rates. The framework produces a testable identity. Under joint no-arbitrage, the credit spread of an issuer expressed over the inflation-rateindexed risk-free curve equals the same issuer's credit spre…
In this study, we developed a computational framework for simulating large-scale agent-based financial markets. Our platform supports trading multiple simultaneous assets and leverages distributed computing to scale the number and complexity of simulated agents. Heterogeneous agents make decisions in parallel, and their orders are processed through a realistic, continuous double auction matching engine. We present a …
We investigate portfolio optimization in financial markets from a trading and risk management perspective. We term this task Risk-Aware Trading Portfolio Optimization (RATPO), formulate the corresponding optimization problem, and propose an efficient Risk-Aware Trading Swarm (RATS) algorithm to solve it. The key elements of RATPO are a generic initial portfolio P, a specific set of Unique Eligible Instruments (UEIs),…
In financial trading, large language model (LLM)-based agents demonstrate significant potential, but their decisions can be sensitive to noisy and non-stationary market information. We propose ContestTrade, a multi-agent trading system with an internal competitive mechanism inspired by institutional investment workflows. The system consists of two specialized teams: (1) a Data Team that processes and condenses massiv…
In order to overcome the drawbacks of assuming deterministic volatility coefficients in the standard LIBOR market models to capture volatility smiles and skews in real markets, several extensions of LIBOR models to incorporate stochastic volatilities have been proposed. The efficient calibration to market data of these more complex models becomes a relevant target in practice. The main objective of the present work i…
Recent technological developments have changed the fundamental ways stock markets function, bringing regulatory instances to assess the benefits of these developments. In parallel, the ongoing machine learning revolution and its multiple applications to trading can now be used to design a next generation of financial models, and thereby explore the systemic complexity of financial stock markets in new ways. We here f…
Financial trading is at the forefront of time-series analysis, and has grown hand-in-hand with it. The advent of electronic trading has allowed complex machine learning solutions to enter the field of financial trading. Financial markets have both long term and short term signals and thus a good predictive model in financial trading should be able to incorporate them together. One of the most sought after forms of el…
In banking practice, rating transition matrices have become the standard approach of deriving multi-year probabilities of default (PDs) from one-year PDs, the latter normally being available from Basel ratings. Rating transition matrices have gained in importance with the newly adopted IFRS 9 accounting standard. Here, the multi-year PDs can be used to calculate the so-called expected credit losses (ECL) over the ent…
We develop the idea of using Monte Carlo sampling of random portfolios to solve portfolio investment problems. In this first paper we explore the need for more general optimization tools, and consider the means by which constrained random portfolios may be generated. A practical scheme for the long-only fully-invested problem is developed and tested for the classic QP application. The advantage of Monte Carlo methods…
This paper presents the results of a comprehensive empirical study of losses to arbitrageurs (following the formalization of loss-versus-rebalancing by [Milionis et al., 2022]) incurred by liquidity providers on automated market makers (AMMs). We show that those losses exceed the fees earned by liquidity providers across many of the largest AMM liquidity pools (on Uniswap). Remarkably, we also find that the Uniswap v…
We have designed an innovative portfolio rebalancing mechanism termed the Cascading Waterfall Round Robin Mechanism. This algorithmic approach recommends an ideal size and number of trades for each asset during the periodic rebalancing process, factoring in the gas fee and slippage. The essence of the model we have created gives indications regarding whether trades should be made on individual assets depending on the…
Onshore Offshore Feeder — Parallel feeders into a master for tax/investor types.
Parallel Exchange Rate — Unofficial FX rate when official markets are distorted.
Shadow Mode Deployment — Running a new model in parallel without affecting decisions.
Onshore Offshore Feeder — Parallel feeders into a master for tax/investor types.
Parallel Exchange Rate — Unofficial FX rate when official markets are distorted.
Shadow Mode Deployment — Running a new model in parallel without affecting decisions.