arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
We establish innovative liquidity premium measures, and construct liquidity-adjusted return and volatility to model assets with extreme liquidity, represented by a portfolio of selected crypto assets, and upon which we develop a set of liquidity-adjusted ARMA-GARCH/EGARCH models. We demonstrate that these models produce superior predictability at extreme liquidity to their traditional counterparts. We provide empiric…
Qi Deng, Zhong-guo Zhou
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2011
In a market with one safe and one risky asset, an investor with a long horizon, constant investment opportunities, and constant relative risk aversion trades with small proportional transaction costs. We derive explicit formulas for the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. At the first order, the liquidity premium equals the spread, times share turnover, times a unive…
Stefan Gerhold, Paolo Guasoni, Johannes Muhle-Karbe, Walter Schachermayer
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
Chae and Kang (2019, \textit{Pacific-Basin Finance Journal}) documented a puzzling Low Volume Return Premium (LVRP) in Korea -- contradicting global High Volume Return Premium (HVRP) evidence. We resolve this puzzle. Using Korean market data (2020-2024), we demonstrate that HVRP exists in Korea but is masked by (1) pooling heterogeneous investor types and (2) using inappropriate intensity normalization. When institut…
Sungwoo Kang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
This paper presents a new model for options pricing. The Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model plays an important role in financial options pricing. However, the BSM model assumes that the risk-free interest rate, volatility, and equity premium are constant, which is unrealistic in the real market. To address this, our paper considers the time-varying characteristics of those parameters. Our model integrates elements of t…
Nicole Hao, Echo Li, Diep Luong-Le
arXiv · arXiv · 2021
We show that the Realized GARCH model yields close-form expression for both the Volatility Index (VIX) and the volatility risk premium (VRP). The Realized GARCH model is driven by two shocks, a return shock and a volatility shock, and these are natural state variables in the stochastic discount factor (SDF). The volatility shock endows the exponentially affine SDF with a compensation for volatility risk. This leads t…
Peter Reinhard Hansen, Zhuo Huang, Chen Tong, Tianyi Wang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2017
In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as anomalies the theory of rational finance cannot explain: Predictability of asset returns, The Equity Premium, (The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of those objections within the rational finance. We do not claim that those are the only possible explanations of the anomalies, but offer statisti…
Svetlozar Rachev, Stoyan Stoyanov, Stefan Mittnik, Frank J. Fabozzi, Abootaleb Shirvani
arXiv · arXiv · 2015
We derive representations of local risk-minimization of call and put options for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models: jump type stochastic volatility models whose squared volatility process is given by a non-Gaussian rnstein-Uhlenbeck process. The general form of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models includes two parameters: volatility risk premium $β$ and leverage effect $ρ$. Arai and Suzuki (2015, arxiv:1503.0858…
Takuji Arai
arXiv · arXiv · 2019
We construct the term structure of the (forward-looking, US market) equity risk premium from SPX option chains. The method is "model-light". Risk-neutral probability densities are estimated by fitting $N$-component Gaussian mixture models to option quotes, where $N$ is a small integer (here 4 or 5). These densities are transformed to their real-world equivalents by exponential tilting with a single parameter: the Coe…
Alan L. Lewis
OpenAlex · Review of Financial Studies · 2003 · cites 1020
We investigate whether the volatility risk premium is negative by examining the statistical properties of delta-hedged option portfolios (buy the option and hedge with stock). Within a stochastic volatility framework, we demonstrate a correspondence between the sign and magnitude of the volatility risk premium and the mean delta-hedged portfolio returns. Using a sample of S&P 500 index options, we provide empirical t…
Gurdip Bakshi, Nikunj Kapadia
OpenAlex · Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis · 2005 · cites 60
Abstract This study employs a non-parametric approach to investigate the volatility risk premium in the over-the-counter currency option market. Using a large database of daily delta-neutral straddle quotes in four major currencies—the British pound, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc—we find that volatility risk is priced in all four currencies across different option maturities. We find that the volati…
Buen Sin Low, Shaojun Zhang
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We study whether nuclear and energy-adjacent equity options exhibit a harvestable variance risk premium. Using CRSP and OptionMetrics data for 2000-2024, we construct a systematic cash-secured short-put strategy on a curated universe of nuclear-related firms. The strategy compares at-the-money put implied volatility with GARCH-based realized volatility forecasts, then evaluates unconditional and IV/RV-filtered put-wr…
Jilang Miao, Nonna Sorokina
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This paper introduces a heterogeneous macroeconomic model of a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) network to analyze the long-term centralizing effects of external traditional finance (TradFi) yields. We model a continuum of rational actors divided into two distinct classes: investors, who optimize portfolios between staking and external variance-dominated investments, and consumers, who balance staking yields against the transact…
Mikhail Perepelitsa
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Through a novel approach, this paper shows that substantial change in stock market behavior has a statistically and economically significant impact on equity risk premium predictability both on in-sample and out-of-sample cases. In line with Auer's ''Bullish ratio'', a ''Bullish index'' is introduced to measure the changes in stock market behavior, which we describe through a ''fluctuation detrending moving average a…
Kuok Sin Un, Marcel Ausloos
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
This paper examines the empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP) and proposes a structural explanation based on a mean-reverting risk premium. We define a realized premium as the deviation between observed exchange rate returns and the interest rate differential, and demonstrate its strong mean-reverting behavior across multiple horizons. Motivated by this pattern, we model the risk premium using an Ornst…
SeungJae Hwang
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
In economic analysis, rational decision-makers often take actions to reduce their risk exposure. These actions include purchasing market insurance and implementing prevention measures to modify the shape of the loss distribution. Under the assumption that the insureds' actions are fully observed by the insurer, this paper investigates the interaction between self-protection and insurance demand when insurance premium…
Qiqi Li, Wei Wang, Yiying Zhang
arXiv · arXiv · 2020
We study equity risk premiums in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Alan L. Lewis
arXiv · arXiv · 2019
Equity risk premium is a central component of every risk and return model in finance and a key input to estimate costs of equity and capital in both corporate finance and valuation. An article by Damodaran examines three broad approaches for estimating the equity risk premium. The first is survey based, it consists in asking common investors or big players like pension fund managers what they require as a premium to …
Enzo Busseti
arXiv · arXiv · 2017
We find that when measured in terms of dollar-turnover, and once $β$-neutralised and Low-Vol neutralised, the Size Effect is alive and well. With a long term t-stat of $5.1$, the "Cold-Minus-Hot" (CMH) anomaly is certainly not less significant than other well-known factors such as Value or Quality. As compared to market-cap based SMB, CMH portfolios are much less anti-correlated to the Low-Vol anomaly. In contrast wi…
Stefano Ciliberti, Emmanuel Sérié, Guillaume Simon, Yves Lempérière, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud