Semantic Scholar · Journal of international financial markets, institutions, and money · 2020 · cites 6
Abstract We introduce an affine term structure model with observed macroeconomic factors for credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan. Empirical results based on the model selection using Japanese data demonstrate that the credit spread curves are dominated by the monetary policy and suggest that global economic forces, such as the U.S. Treasury yield and Baa-Aaa credit spread, pl…
Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, Sumiko Takaoka
Semantic Scholar · Financial Innovation · 2024 · cites 1
Financing sources for urban construction have garnered significant attention globally. Among various financing methods, the urban construction investment bond (UCIB) is unique to China. The UCIB credit spread, which represents the compensation for credit risk, has become a focal point for researchers. However, owing to shortcomings of previous approaches, few scholars have accurately assessed the impact of implicit g…
Rongda Chen, Han Li, Xuhui Tang, Chenglu Jin, Shuonan Zhang
Semantic Scholar · The Journal of Financial Data Science · 2025 · cites 0
Factor models are essential tools for understanding asset returns. Statistical factor models such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders have been widely used to reduce the high-dimensional panels of returns into a lower-dimensional latent space. Although effective at retaining much of the original variance, these models often lack inherent economic interpretation and rely solely on historical data, f…
Ashraf Ghiye, Baptiste Barreau, Laurent Carlier, M. Vazirgiannis
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
An order-book market whose liquidity provision is anchored to a fundamental value carries a restoring force: the price mean-reverts to value and the book refills after a shock. We show this restoring force is a robust intrinsic stabiliser and identify it causally-dialling the anchor down removes the mean-reversion, and a leverage-driven fire-sale then self-sustains. Separately, we ask whether a stressed market transm…
Jan Novotny
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Automated Market Makers based on concentrated liquidity, such as Uniswap v3, significantly improve capital efficiency but expose Liquidity Providers (LPs) to adverse selection costs, formalized as Loss-Versus-Rebalancing (LVR). While theoretical literature quantifies these costs, the interplay between realistic blockchain microstructure and endogenous pricing mechanisms remains under-explored. This paper develops a g…
Daniele Maria Di Nosse, Fabrizio Lillo
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Persistent shifts in term-structure dynamics undermine the stability of single-regime models in long samples. We develop an arbitrage-free regime-switching generalized CIR (RS-GCIR) model that jointly prices the Chinese government bond (CGB) curve and corporate bond curves. To capture the systematic transmission from interest-rate conditions to credit spreads, we structure the model into two blocks and price corporat…
Maochun Xu, Yunqi Liang, Yi Hong
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
The financial industry has undergone a significant transition from the London Interbank Offered Rates (LIBORs) to Risk Free Rates (RFRs) such as, e.g., the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Cash Rate (AONIA) in Australia, as primary benchmark rates for borrowing costs. The paper examines the pricing and hedging method for financial products in a cross-currency framework with the special emph…
Yining Ding, Ruyi Liu, Marek Rutkowski
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This paper introduces a novel stochastic model for credit spreads. The stochastic approach leverages the diffusion of default intensities via a CIR++ model and is formulated within a risk-neutral probability space. Our research primarily addresses two gaps in the literature. The first is the lack of credit spread models founded on a stochastic basis that enables continuous modeling, as many existing models rely on fa…
Mohamed Ben Alaya, Ahmed Kebaier, Djibril Sarr
arXiv · arXiv · 2020
Before the 2008 financial crisis, most research in financial mathematics focused on pricing options without considering the effects of counterparties' defaults, illiquidity problems, and the role of the sale and repurchase agreement (Repo) market. Recently, models were proposed to address this by computing a total valuation adjustment (XVA) of derivatives; however without considering a potential crisis in the market.…
Weijie Pang, Stephan Sturm
OpenAlex · The Journal of Finance · 2014 · cites 325
ABSTRACT The repo market has been viewed as a potential source of financial instability since the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis, based in part on findings that margins increased sharply in a segment of this market. This paper provides evidence suggesting that there was no system‐wide run on repo. Using confidential data on tri‐party repo, a major segment of this market, we show that, the level of margins and the amou…
Adam Copeland, Antoine Martin, Michael Walker
OpenAlex · American Economic Review · 2012 · cites 2242
Using micro-level data, we construct a credit spread index with considerable predictive power for future economic activity. We decompose the credit spread into a component that captures firm-specific information on expected defaults and a residual component–– the excess bond premium. Shocks to the excess bond premium that are orthogonal to the current state of the economy lead to declines in economic activity and ass…
Simon Gilchrist, Egon Zakrajšek
OpenAlex · Review of Financial Studies · 2012 · cites 548
Order flow is toxic when it adversely selects market makers, who may be unaware they are providing liquidity at a loss. We present a new procedure to estimate flow toxicity based on volume imbalance and trade intensity (the VPIN toxicity metric). VPIN is updated in volume time, making it applicable to the high-frequency world, and it does not require the intermediate estimation of non-observable parameters or the app…
David Easley, Marcos López de Prado, Maureen O’Hara
OpenAlex · Review of Financial Studies · 2009 · cites 608
This paper attempts to explain the credit default swap (CDS) premium, using a novel approach to identify the volatility and jump risks of individual firms from high-frequency equity prices. Our empirical results suggest that the volatility risk alone predicts 48% of the variation in CDS spread levels, whereas the jump risk alone forecasts 19%. After controlling for credit ratings, macroeconomic conditions, and firms'…
Benjamin Yibin Zhang, Hao Zhou, Haibin Zhu
OpenAlex · Review of Financial Studies · 2008 · cites 4955
We provide a model that links an asset's market liquidity (i.e., the ease with which it is traded) and traders' funding liquidity (i.e., the ease with which they can obtain funding). Traders provide market liquidity, and their ability to do so depends on their availability of funding. Conversely, traders' funding, i.e., their capital and margin requirements, depends on the assets' market liquidity. We show that, unde…
Markus K. Brunnermeier, Lasse Heje Pedersen
OpenAlex · The Journal of Finance · 2007 · cites 1130
ABSTRACT We find that liquidity is priced in corporate yield spreads. Using a battery of liquidity measures covering over 4,000 corporate bonds and spanning both investment grade and speculative categories, we find that more illiquid bonds earn higher yield spreads, and an improvement in liquidity causes a significant reduction in yield spreads. These results hold after controlling for common bond‐specific, firm‐spec…
Long Chen, David A. Lesmond, Jason Zhanshun Wei
OpenAlex · Journal of Business and Economic Statistics · 2006 · cites 1224
We study market microstructure noise in high-frequency data and analyze its implications for the realized variance (RV) under a general specification for the noise. We show that kernel-based estimators can unearth important characteristics of market microstructure noise and that a simple kernel-based estimator dominates the RV for the estimation of integrated variance (IV). An empirical analysis of the Dow Jones Indu…
Peter Reinhard Hansen, Asger Lunde
OpenAlex · Review of Financial Studies · 2005 · cites 928
In theory, the sum of squares of log returns sampled at high frequency estimates their variance. When market microstructure noise is present but unaccounted for, however, we show that the optimal sampling frequency is finite and derives its closed-form expression. But even with optimal sampling, using say 5-min returns when transactions are recorded every second, a vast amount of data is discarded, in contradiction t…
Yacine Aı̈t-Sahalia, Per A. Mykland, Lan Zhang
OpenAlex · The Journal of Finance · 2004 · cites 391
ABSTRACT We examine the role of price discovery in the U.S. Treasury market through the empirical relationship between orderflow, liquidity, and the yield curve. We find that orderflow imbalances (excess buying or selling pressure) account for up to 26% of the day‐to‐day variation in yields on days without major macroeconomic announcements. The effect of orderflow on yields is permanent and strongest when liquidity i…
Michael W. Brandt, Kenneth A. Kavajecz