arXiv · arXiv · 2024
We introduce a simple model of depositor runs to capture run risks at financial institutions based on their balance sheet composition. Specifically, we consider a reduced potential to raise capital from liquidity buffers under stress, during a stylized run driven by depositor scrutiny and further fueled by fire sales in response to withdrawals. The setup is inspired by the Silicon Valley Bank meltdown in March 2023 a…
Zachary Feinstein, Grzegorz Halaj, Andreas Sojmark
arXiv · arXiv · 2013
This paper examines three independent explanatory variables and their relation with cost overrun in order to decide whether this is different for Dutch infrastructure projects compared to worldwide findings. The three independent variables are project type (road, rail, and fixed link projects), project size (measured in terms of estimated costs) and the length of the project implementation phase. For Dutch projects, …
Chantal C. Cantarelli, Bert van Wee, Eric J. E. Molin, Bent Flyvbjerg
arXiv · arXiv · 2013
Using a methodology similar to that used the in the worldwide research, the cost performance of Dutch large-scale transport infrastructure projects is determined. In the Netherlands, cost overruns are as common as cost underruns but because cost overruns are larger than cost underruns projects on average have a cost overrun of 16.5%. The focus on one country further enabled to consider cost overruns during different …
Chantal C. Cantarelli, Eric J. E. Molin, Bert van Wee, Bent Flyvbjerg
OpenAlex · The Journal of Finance · 2014 · cites 331
ABSTRACT The repo market has been viewed as a potential source of financial instability since the 2007 to 2009 financial crisis, based in part on findings that margins increased sharply in a segment of this market. This paper provides evidence suggesting that there was no system‐wide run on repo. Using confidential data on tri‐party repo, a major segment of this market, we show that, the level of margins and the amou…
Adam Copeland, Antoine Martin, Michael Walker
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
A physically backed leveraged event position requires real credit: if collateral C receives leverage L, the protocol supplies (L-1)C and uses the combined amount to acquire recognized event exposure. This paper develops a venue-agnostic on-chain credit architecture for that capital layer and an endogenous model of its capital market. It separates traders, Senior Credit LPs, market makers, liquidators, and Liquidation…
Maksym Nechepurenko
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
We have designed an innovative portfolio rebalancing mechanism termed the Cascading Waterfall Round Robin Mechanism. This algorithmic approach recommends an ideal size and number of trades for each asset during the periodic rebalancing process, factoring in the gas fee and slippage. The essence of the model we have created gives indications regarding whether trades should be made on individual assets depending on the…
Ravi Kashyap
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
Rolling-window factor pipelines for Chinese A-share markets contain a subtle but costly flaw: daily price-move limits (+/-10% main-board, +/-20% STAR/ChiNext) render a fraction of closing prices non-executable, yet standard implementations ingest these values before any row-filtering runs. The contaminated aggregates propagate silently through moving averages, correlations, and ranks--a failure mode we term "upstream…
Yimin Du
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Every widely followed Bitcoin cycle indicator (Pi Cycle, MVRV, Mayer, Puell) called turns precisely for a decade, then degraded in one sequence: precise, then early, then silent. This is one structural phenomenon. Across the four halving epochs (2011-2026), the per-cycle maxima of five top-calling oscillators decline monotonically while minima end higher, so any threshold calibrated on past cycles must stop firing; s…
Josh Molnar
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Agent-based models of markets readily produce emergent instabilities, but telling a genuine collective effect apart from a parameter artefact takes discipline. We apply Bouchaud's phase-diagram method to a continuous-double-auction order-book model. The method is to map the full phase diagram, test its robustness to rule changes, and rule out degenerate and numerical origins before we call any feature a tipping point…
Jan Novotny
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Fundamental-value anchoring of resting liquidity is a causal stabiliser of an order-book market: while the anchor holds, even a heavily leveraged book stays quiet. We take that anchor strength as a continuous control and characterise the endogenous liquidity crises that appear once it is nearly removed. In a single continuous-double-auction market driven by anchored noise traders, chartist herders, a population of fu…
Jan Novotny
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
In this paper, we describe a novel agent-based approach for modelling the transaction cost of buying or selling an asset in financial markets, e.g., to liquidate a large position as a result of a margin call to meet financial obligations. The simple act of buying or selling in the market causes a price impact and there is a cost described as liquidity risk. For example, when selling a large order, there is market sli…
Perukrishnen Vytelingum, Rory Baggott, Namid Stillman, Jianfei Zhang, Dingqiu Zhu
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We develop a behavioural model of bank run exposure in a paycheck-to-paycheck economy with loss averse depositors. Income is received through demand deposits, and consumption ratcheting embeds reference dependence in a parsimonious asset-pricing framework. We show that sufficiently high subjective bad-state probabilities endogenously increase liquidity demand and generate equilibrium stress states supporting bank run…
G. Charles-Cadogan
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Most currency pairs lack a direct liquid market, so international foreign exchange relies on routing transactions through a dominant vehicle currency. Multi-currency automated market makers (AMMs) offer an alternative by sharing liquidity across many currency pairs, facilitating direct cross-currency trade while exploiting liquidity consolidation. This paper studies a multi-currency pool design that minimizes trading…
Reina Ke Xin Li, Andreas Park, Andreas Veneris, Srisht Fateh Singh
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Algorithmic stablecoins promise decentralized monetary stability by maintaining a target peg through programmatic reserve management. Yet, their reserve controllers remain vulnerable to regime-blind optimization, calibrating risk parameters on fair-weather data while ignoring tail events that precipitate cascading failures. The March 2020 Black Thursday collapse, wherein MakerDAO's collateral auctions yielded $8.3M i…
Shengwei You, Aditya Joshi, Andrey Kuehlkamp, Jarek Nabrzyski
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2020
This paper presents novel results generated from a new simulation model of a contemporary financial market, that cast serious doubt on the previously widely accepted view of the relative performance of various well-known public-domain automated-trading algorithms. Various public-domain trading algorithms have been proposed over the past 25 years in a kind of arms-race, where each new trading algorithm was compared to…
Michael Rollins, Dave Cliff
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2019
In this study, we applied a stochastic spread pairs trading strategy on the Indian commodity market. The complete set of commodities were taken whose spot price was available for the period of January 1st 2010 to December 31st 2018 including energy, metals and the agricultural commodity sector. Spot data was taken from the MCX pooled spot prices for 17 commodities. The data was split into training period (January 1st…
Dhruv Mahajan, Abhijeet Chandra
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2014
We present a new model for prediction markets, in which we use risk measures to model agents and introduce a market maker to describe the trading process. This specific choice on modelling tools brings us mathematical convenience. The analysis shows that the whole market effectively approaches a global objective, despite that the market is designed such that each agent only cares about its own goal. Additionally, the…
Jinli Hu, Amos Storkey