Papers, wiki, Option Blackboard, encyclopedia, and cards.
For a sequence of binary bets, the Kelly criterion provides a closed-form solution that maximizes the expected growth rate of wealth. In contrast, when multiple bets are placed simultaneously (e.g., in portfolio allocation or prediction markets), the optimal Kelly strategy generally requires numerical optimization over a joint outcome space. A naive formulation scales exponentially in the number of bets, requiring $O…
We propose a new static parameterization of the implied volatility surface which is constructed by using polynomials of sigmoid functions combined with some other terms. This parameterization is flexible enough to fit market implied volatilities which demonstrate smile or skew. An arbitrage-free calibration algorithm is considered that constructs the implied volatility surface as a grid in the strike-expiration space…
This whitepaper introduces an innovative mechanism for pricing perpetual contracts and quoting fees to traders based on current market conditions. The approach employs liquidity curves and on-chain oracles to establish a new adaptive pricing framework that considers various factors, ensuring pricing stability and predictability. The framework utilizes parabolic and sigmoid functions to quote prices and fees, accounti…
This study delves into the analysis of financial markets through the lens of Wyckoff Phases, a framework devised by Richard D. Wyckoff in the early 20th century. Focusing on the accumulation pattern within the Wyckoff framework, the research explores the phases of trading range and secondary test, elucidating their significance in understanding market dynamics and identifying potential trading opportunities. By disse…
Credit scoring is a systematic approach to evaluate a borrower's probability of default (PD) on a bank loan. The data associated with such scenarios are characteristically imbalanced, complicating binary classification owing to the often-underestimated cost of misclassification during the classifier's learning process. Considering the high imbalance ratio (IR) of these datasets, we introduce an innovative yet straigh…
In this article we compare the performances of a logistic regression and a feed forward neural network for credit scoring purposes. Our results show that the logistic regression gives quite good results on the dataset and the neural network can improve a little the performance. We also consider different sets of features in order to assess their importance in terms of prediction accuracy. We found that temporal featu…
In a recent paper "Deep Learning Volatility" a fast 2-step deep calibration algorithm for rough volatility models was proposed: in the first step the time consuming mapping from the model parameter to the implied volatilities is learned by a neural network and in the second step standard solver techniques are used to find the best model parameter. In our paper we compare these results with an alternative direct appro…
This work presents a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for the prediction of next-day stock fluctuations using company-specific news headlines. Experiments to evaluate model performance using various configurations of word-embeddings and convolutional filter widths are reported. The total number of convolutional filters used is far fewer than is common, reducing the dimensionality of the task without loss of accurac…
Economic interdependencies have become increasingly present in globalized production, financial and trade systems. While establishing interdependencies among economic agents is crucial for the production of complex products, they may also increase systemic risks due to failure propagation. It is crucial to identify how network connectivity impacts both the emergent production and risk of collapse of economic systems.…
The highly detailed international trade data among all countries in the world during 1971-2000 shows that the kinds of export goods and the logarithmic GDP (gross domestic production) of a country has an S-shaped relationship. This indicates all countries can be divided into three stages accordingly. First, the poor countries always export very few kinds of products as we expect. Second, once the economic size (GDP) …
This study considers a model of the income distribution of agents whose pairwise interaction is asymmetric and price-invariant. Asymmetric transactions are typical for chain-trading groups who arrange their business such that commodities move from senior to junior partners and money moves in the opposite direction. The price-invariance of transactions means that the probability of a pairwise interaction is a function…
An activation function is the pointwise nonlinearity between linear layers. Without it, stacked layers collapse to a single linear map.
Xavier/Glorot initialization scales initial weights so variance is preserved through a layer — the default that made deep tanh/sigmoid nets trainable before BatchNorm.