arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
As decentralized finance (DeFi) evolves, distinguishing between user behaviors - liquidity provision versus active trading - has become vital for risk modeling and on-chain reputation. We propose a behavioral scoring framework for Uniswap that assigns two complementary scores: a Liquidity Provision Score that assesses strategic liquidity contributions, and a Swap Behavior Score that reflects trading intent, volatilit…
Dhanashekar Kandaswamy, Ashutosh Sahoo, Akshay SP, Gurukiran S, Parag Paul
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
This paper develops the first end-to-end application of cross-sectional learning-to-rank to the S&P 500 weekly options (SPXW) zero-day-to-expiration surface, integrated with margin-aware position sizing, an abstention rule driven by model uncertainty, and a strict out-of-time integrity check. A LightGBM LambdaRank ranker scores a daily nine-strategy cross-section composed of eight delta-targeted short-put positions a…
Maciej Wysocki
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
Limit order book (LOB) is a dynamic, event-driven system that records real-time market demand and supply for a financial asset in a stream flow. Event stream prediction in LOB refers to forecasting both the timing and the type of events. The challenge lies in modeling the time-event distribution to capture the interdependence between time and event type, which has traditionally relied on stochastic point processes. H…
Zetao Zheng, Guoan Li, Deqiang Ouyang, Decui Liang, Jie Shao
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2023
Despite the efficient market hypothesis, many studies suggest the existence of inefficiencies in the stock market leading to the development of techniques to gain above-market returns. Systematic trading has undergone significant advances in recent decades with deep learning schemes emerging as a powerful tool for analyzing and predicting market behavior. In this paper, a method is proposed that is inspired by how pr…
Sungwoo Kang, Jong-Kook Kim
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2021
In this paper we perform a rigorous mathematical analysis of the word2vec model, especially when it is equipped with the Skip-gram learning scheme. Our goal is to explain how embeddings, that are now widely used in NLP (Natural Language Processing), are influenced by the distribution of terms in the documents of the considered corpus. We use a mathematical formulation to shed light on how the decision to use such a m…
Mengda Li, Charles-Albert Lehalle
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2019
This paper considers improved forecasting in possibly nonlinear dynamic settings, with high-dimension predictors ("big data" environments). To overcome the curse of dimensionality and manage data and model complexity, we examine shrinkage estimation of a back-propagation algorithm of a deep neural net with skip-layer connections. We expressly include both linear and nonlinear components. This is a high-dimensional le…
Ali Habibnia, Esfandiar Maasoumi
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2015
This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or l…
Huai-Long Shi, Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Wei-Xing Zhou
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
We give a criterion under which the expected return on a ticket for certain large lotteries is positive. In this circumstance, we use elementary portfolio analysis to show that an optimal investment strategy includes a very small allocation for such tickets.
Aaron Abrams, Skip Garibaldi