arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Commodity futures are shaped by harvest cycles, weather shocks, storage conditions, and seasonal demand, but it remains unclear whether recurring patterns yield robust out-of-sample trading profits. Existing research documents return seasonality in commodity futures as well as more complex seasonal structure, while leaving less evidence on how alternative seasonal models compare under common implementation constraint…
Ralph Kosch, Robin Forsberg
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
Liquidity withdrawal is a critical indicator of market fragility. In this project, I test a framework for forecasting liquidity withdrawal at the individual-stock level, ranging from less liquid stocks to highly liquid large-cap tickers, and evaluate the relative performance of competing model classes in predicting short-horizon order book stress. We introduce the Liquidity Withdrawal Index (LWI) -- defined as the ra…
Haochuan, Wang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2024
This research presents a comprehensive framework for analyzing liquidity in financial markets, particularly in the context of high-frequency trading. By leveraging advanced machine learning classification techniques, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest, the study aims to predict minute-level price movements using an extensive set of liquidity metrics derived from the Trade and Quo…
Sid Bhatia, Sidharth Peri, Sam Friedman, Michelle Malen
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2017
We present an extended version of the recently proposed "LLOB" model for the dynamics of latent liquidity in financial markets. By allowing for finite cancellation and deposition rates within a continuous reaction-diffusion setup, we account for finite memory effects on the dynamics of the latent order book. We compute in particular the finite memory corrections to the square root impact law, as well as the impact de…
Michael Benzaquen, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
We consider a Kyle-type model where insider trading takes place among a potentially large population of liquidity traders and is subject to legal penalties. Insiders exploit the liquidity provided by the trading masses to "camouflage" their actions and balance expected wealth with the necessary stealth to avoid detection. Under a diverse spectrum of prosecution schemes, we establish the existence of equilibria for ar…
Jin Ma, Weixuan Xia, Jianfeng Zhang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
The mean-variance model remains the most prevalent investment framework, built on diversification principles. However, it consistently struggles with estimation errors in expected returns and the covariance matrix, its core parameters. To address this concern, this research evaluates the performance of mean variance (MV) and global minimum-variance (GMV) models across various shrinkage estimators designed to improve …
Rupendra Yadav, Amita Sharma, Aparna Mehra
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
In this work, we demonstrate experimentally that the execution flow, $I = dV/dt$, is the fundamental driving force of market dynamics. We develop a numerical framework to calculate execution flow from the data using the Radon-Nikodym derivative. A notable feature of this approach is its ability to automatically determine thresholds that can serve as actionable triggers. The technique also determines the characteristi…
Mikhail Gennadievich Belov, Victor Victorovich Dubov, Vadim Konstantinovich Ivanov, Alexander Yurievich Maslov, Olga Vladimirovna Proshina
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2021
This paper aims at solving FX market volatility modeling problem and finding the most becoming approach to this task. Validity of two competing approaches, classical econometric generalized conditional heteroscedasticity and mathematical (singular spectrum analysis and dynamical systems stability analysis) are tested on major currency pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD) and unique high-frequency USD/RUB data. The study…
Anton Koshelev
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2021
In this paper, new results in random matrix theory are derived which allow us to construct a shrinkage estimator of the global minimum variance (GMV) portfolio when the shrinkage target is a random object. More specifically, the shrinkage target is determined as the holding portfolio estimated from previous data. The theoretical findings are applied to develop theory for dynamic estimation of the GMV portfolio, where…
Taras Bodnar, Nestor Parolya, Erik Thorsen
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2020
We adopt deep learning models to directly optimise the portfolio Sharpe ratio. The framework we present circumvents the requirements for forecasting expected returns and allows us to directly optimise portfolio weights by updating model parameters. Instead of selecting individual assets, we trade Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) of market indices to form a portfolio. Indices of different asset classes show robust correla…
Zihao Zhang, Stefan Zohren, Stephen Roberts
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2013
High frequency trading has led to widespread efforts to reduce information propagation delays between physically distant exchanges. Using relativistically correct millisecond-resolution tick data, we document a 3-millisecond decrease in one-way communication time between the Chicago and New York areas that has occurred from April 27th, 2010 to August 17th, 2012. We attribute the first segment of this decline to the i…
Gregory Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre, Joseph Grundfest
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Multifractality in time series analysis characterizes the presence of multiple scaling exponents, indicating heterogeneous temporal structures and complex dynamical behaviors beyond simple monofractal models. In the context of digital currency markets, multifractal properties arise due to the interplay of long-range temporal correlations and heavy-tailed distributions of returns, reflecting intricate market microstru…
Stanisław Drożdż, Robert Kluszczyński, Jarosław Kwapień, Marcin Wątorek
arXiv · arXiv · 2010
The proprietary nature of Hedge Fund investing means that it is common practise for managers to release minimal information about their returns. The construction of a Fund of Hedge Funds portfolio requires a correlation matrix which often has to be estimated using a relatively small sample of monthly returns data which induces noise. In this paper random matrix theory (RMT) is applied to a cross-correlation matrix C,…
Thomas Conlon, Heather J. Ruskin, Martin Crane