arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2022
We analyze the interaction between stock prices of big companies in the USA and Germany using Granger Causality. We claim that the increase in pair-wise Granger causality interaction between prices in the times of crisis is the consequence of simultaneous response of the markets to the outside events or external stimulus that is considered as a common driver to all the stocks, not a result of real causal predictabili…
Maryam Zamani, Sander Paekivi, Philipp Meyer, Holger Kantz
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2018
Our knowledge about the evolution of guarantee network in downturn period is limited due to the lack of comprehensive data of the whole credit system. Here we analyze the dynamic Chinese guarantee network constructed from a comprehensive bank loan dataset that accounts for nearly 80% total loans in China, during 01/2007-03/2012. The results show that, first, during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, the guarantee…
Yingli Wang, Qingpeng Zhang, Xiaoguang Yang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2014
During the Great Recession, Democrats in the United States argued that government spending could be utilized to "grease the wheels" of the economy in order to create wealth and to increase employment; Republicans, on the other hand, contended that government spending is wasteful and discouraged investment, thereby increasing unemployment. Today, in 2020, we find ourselves in the midst of another crisis where governme…
Philip A. Ernst, Michael B. Imerman, Larry Shepp, Quan Zhou
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2016
In order-driven markets, limit-order book (LOB) resiliency is an important microscopic indicator of market quality when the order book is hit by a liquidity shock and plays an essential role in the design of optimal submission strategies of large orders. However, the evolutionary behavior of LOB resilience around liquidity shocks is not well understood empirically. Using order flow data sets of Chinese stocks, we qua…
Hai-Chuan Xu, Wei Chen, Xiong Xiong, Wei Zhang, Wei-Xing Zhou
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
This study examines the effects of Trump-era tariffs on financial market efficiency by applying multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to the return and absolute return time series of six major financial assets: the S\&P 500, SSEC, VIX, BTC/USD, EUR/USD, and Gold. Using the Hurst exponent $h(2)$ and multifractal strength, we assess how market dynamics responded to two major global shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic a…
Tetsuya Takaishi
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2022
We analyse the money-financed fiscal stimulus implemented in Venice during the famine and plague of 1629--31, which was equivalent to a 'net-worth helicopter money' strategy -- a monetary expansion generating losses to the issuer. We argue that the strategy aimed at reconciling the need to subsidize inhabitants suffering from containment policies with the desire to prevent an increase in long-term government debt, bu…
Charles Goodhart, Donato Masciandaro, Stefano Ugolini
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2019
Before the massive spread of computer technology, information was far from complex. The development of technology shifted the paradigm: from individuals who faced scarce and costly information to individuals who face massive amounts of information accessible at low costs. Nowadays we are living in the era of big data and investors deal every day with a huge flow of information. In the spirit of the modern idea that e…
Giuseppe Pernagallo, Benedetto Torrisi
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2016
Since governments give stimulus to firms and expect the spillover effect by fiscal policies, it is important to know the effectiveness that they can control the economy. To clarify the controllability of the economy, we investigate a firm production network observed exhaustively in Japan and what firms should be directly or indirectly controlled by using control theory. By control theory, we can classify firms into t…
Hiroyasu Inoue
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2015
This paper outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate policy. It shows that the vast majority of models used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the financial system that sit at odds with the observed reality. In particular, the models' assumptions lead to `crowding out' of capital, which cause them to show negative impacts fro…
H. Pollitt, J. -F. Mercure
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2013
The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequence is cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and the systematic underestimation of risks. Third, implications for cost-benefit anal…
Bent Flyvbjerg
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2011
We present an extension of the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to include an additional pricing factor called the "Zipf factor", which describes the diversification risk of the stock market portfolio. Keeping all the dynamical characteristics of a bubble described in the JLS model, the new model provides additional information about the concentration of stock gains over time. This allows us to understand better …
Wanfeng Yan, Ryan Woodard, Didier Sornette