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In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing transfer learning techniques to address the financial portfolio optimization problem. We introduce a novel concept called "transfer risk", within the optimization framework of transfer learning. A series of numerical experiments are conducted from three categories: cross-continent transfer, cross-sector transfer, and cross-frequency transfer. In particular, 1. a s…
Recognizing that asset markets generally exhibit shared informational characteristics, we develop a portfolio strategy based on transfer learning that leverages cross-market information to enhance the investment performance in the market of interest by forward validation. Our strategy asymptotically identifies and utilizes the informative datasets, selectively incorporating valid information while discarding the misl…
This paper introduces a credit risk rating model for credit risk assessment in quantitative finance, aiming to categorize borrowers based on their behavioral data. The model is trained on data from Experian, a widely recognized credit bureau, to effectively identify instances of loan defaults among bank customers. Employing state-of-the-art statistical and machine learning techniques ensures the model's predictive ac…
Systematic financial trading strategies account for over 80% of trade volume in equities and a large chunk of the foreign exchange market. In spite of the availability of data from multiple markets, current approaches in trading rely mainly on learning trading strategies per individual market. In this paper, we take a step towards developing fully end-to-end global trading strategies that leverage systematic trends t…
We quantify the propagation and absorption of large-scale publicly available news articles from the World Wide Web to financial markets. To extract publicly available information, we use the news archives from the Common Crawl, a nonprofit organization that crawls a large part of the web. We develop a processing pipeline to identify news articles associated with the constituent companies in the S\&P 500 index, an equ…
Volatility is a natural risk measure in finance as it quantifies the variation of stock prices. A frequently considered problem in mathematical finance is to forecast different estimates of volatility. What makes it promising to use deep learning methods for the prediction of volatility is the fact, that stock price returns satisfy some common properties, referred to as `stylized facts'. Also, the amount of data used…
Foundation models have transformed domains from language to genomics by learning general-purpose representations from large-scale, heterogeneous data. We introduce TradeFM, a 524M-parameter generative Transformer that brings this paradigm to market microstructure, learning directly from billions of trade events across >9K equities. To enable cross-asset generalization, we develop scale-invariant features and a univer…
The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) promises to transform financial markets by enabling fractional ownership, global accessibility, and programmable settlement of traditionally illiquid assets such as real estate, private credit, and government bonds. While technical progress has been rapid, with over \$25 billion in tokenized RWAs brought on-chain as of 2025, liquidity remains a critical bottleneck. This pa…
To assign a value to a portfolio, it is common to use Mark-to-Market prices. However, how should one proceed when the securities are illiquid? When transaction prices are scarce, how can one use all the available real-time information? In this article, we address these questions for over-the-counter (OTC) markets based on requests for quotes (RFQs). We extend the concept of micro-price, which was recently introduced …
We study a continuous-time version of the intermediation model of Grossman and Miller (1988). To wit, we solve for the competitive equilibrium prices at which liquidity takers' demands are absorbed by dealers with quadratic inventory costs, who can in turn gradually transfer these positions to an exogenous open market with finite liquidity. This endogenously leads to transient price impact in the dealer market. Smoot…
We study the cluster dynamics of multichannel (multivariate) time series by representing their correlations as time-dependent networks and investigating the evolution of network communities. We employ a node-centric approach that allows us to track the effects of the community evolution on the functional roles of individual nodes without having to track entire communities. As an example, we consider a foreign exchang…
Forward-looking volatility forecasts are central inputs to derivatives pricing, market making, risk management, and volatility-linked trading strategies, with ARCH and GARCH models serving as the canonical workhorses. Such models are natural in standard asset markets, where prices are positive-valued stochastic processes and volatility is typically inferred from return dynamics. Prediction markets have a different st…
Evaluating whether large language model (LLM) agents can profit in capital markets is increasingly framed as end-to-end trading: place an agent in a historical market, let it trade, and measure portfolio returns. This setup is vulnerable to two evaluation failures. First, long backtests often overlap with the knowledge cutoffs of frontier LLMs, allowing memorized tickers, dates, prices, and market narratives to subst…
Purpose: This study introduces a novel framework for identifying and exploiting predictive lead-lag relationships in financial markets. We propose an integrated approach that combines advanced statistical methodologies with machine learning models to enhance the identification and exploitation of predictive relationships between equities. Methods: We employed a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to cluster nine prominent s…
We design a system for risk-analyzing and pricing portfolios of non-performing consumer credit loans. The rapid development of credit lending business for consumers heightens the need for trading portfolios formed by overdue loans as a manner of risk transferring. However, the problem is nontrivial technically and related research is absent. We tackle the challenge by building a bottom-up architecture, in which we mo…
We explore online inductive transfer learning, with a feature representation transfer from a radial basis function network formed of Gaussian mixture model hidden processing units to a direct, recurrent reinforcement learning agent. This agent is put to work in an experiment, trading the major spot market currency pairs, where we accurately account for transaction and funding costs. These sources of profit and loss, …
This paper analyzes the dynamic incentives for technology adoption under a transferable permits system, which allows for strategic trading on the permit market. Initially, firms can invest both in low-emitting production technologies and trade permits. In the model, technology adoption and allowance price are generated endogenously and are inter-dependent. It is shown that the non-cooperative permit trading game poss…
We discuss the binary nature of funding impact in derivative valuation. Under some conditions, funding is either a cost or a benefit, i.e., one of the lending/borrowing rates does not play a role in pricing derivatives. When derivatives are priced, considering different lending/borrowing rates leads to semi-linear BSDEs and PDEs, and thus it is necessary to solve the equations numerically. However, once it can be gua…
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Transfer Risk (Emerging Markets).
Transfer Coefficient (Quant).
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Whale Transfer Alert options (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert DeFi (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert CEX (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert DEX (Crypto).
Transfer Coefficient (Quant).
Transfer Risk (Emerging Markets).
Variance Swap — Contract paying realized variance versus strike, core institutional vol transfer instrument.
Whale Transfer Alert BNB (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert BTC (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert CEX (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert DeFi (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert DEX (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert ETH (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert options (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert perp (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert SOL (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert spot (Crypto).
Whale Transfer Alert XRP (Crypto).