Hard Default
Hard Default (Fixed Income).
Definition
Hard Default refers to hard Default (Fixed Income). Keep that definition fixed when comparing series, managers, or regimes — renaming the same tape does not create a new signal.
Why it matters
Duration, curve, and carry decide whether a macro view survives into P&L. When hard Default (Fixed Income) shifts, related hedges, limits, and narratives usually need an explicit update rather than a quiet assumption.
Case
Suppose a desk is positioned for the opposite of what hard default is saying. If hard Default (Fixed Income) moves against that book, the first question is not “is the story clever?” but whether size, hedges, and stop logic still match the observation.
How to read it
Always state the tenor and roll-down assumption; parallel-shift shortcuts hide curve risk. Prefer a short written null hypothesis for Hard Default: what would falsify the current reading in the next window?
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