Score = Severity 30% + Recency 20% + Source Credibility 15% + Multi-source Confirmation 15% + Market Transmission 20%. Physical disruption (pipeline outage, tanker hit, strait restriction) floors the score. Oil-price dips are transmission, not recovery.
0-29 Calm, 30-49 Watch, 50-69 Stress, 70-84 High Risk, 85-100 Shock
physical_first_floor