Gen 30,600Demand 30,100DC 2.5%AI 12.1 GWOPEC+ 5.7

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Score96Shock

Focus risk

Hormuz Energy ShockSHOCK

24H Events 11Signals 11

Saudi East-West pipeline outage and Gulf kinetic risk remain live. A one-day oil dip on inventory headlines does not unwind a multi-million-bpd bypass shutdown or Hormuz war-risk.

Scoring criteria

Score = Severity 30% + Recency 20% + Source Credibility 15% + Multi-source Confirmation 15% + Market Transmission 20%. Physical disruption (pipeline outage, tanker hit, strait restriction) floors the score. Oil-price dips are transmission, not recovery.

0-29 Calm, 30-49 Watch, 50-69 Stress, 70-84 High Risk, 85-100 Shock

physical_first_floor

Key Developments

Gulf energy infrastructure remains under kinetic pressure.
Hormuz and Red Sea shipping stay far below normal wartime traffic.
Price-down headlines are market transmission, not confirmed de-escalation.

Market Impact

Brent/WTI stay bid on physical barrels even if a session prints lower on inventories.
Tanker rates, war-risk insurance and LNG reroutes remain the first-order channel.
Gold and vol stay supported until the pipeline restarts and Hormuz traffic normalizes.

Trade Path

Do not fade the geo premium on a single down-print in oil.
Reprice lower only on confirmed pipeline restart plus rising Hormuz transits.
Track East-West flows, Yanbu loadings, tanker fixtures and Hormuz AIS counts.

Expand score/intel under Conflict; tap a marker for detail

Timeline · Transport · Military

Timeline

Live Headline Flow

18 Items

Iran ConflictAl JazeeraHigh Risk

Qatar PM urges Gulf security framework with Iran

Al Jazeera•Iran Conflict•12 min ago

Iran ConflictAl JazeeraHigh Risk

Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’

Al Jazeera•Iran Conflict•59 min ago

Iran ConflictGuardian WorldHigh Risk

UK minister warns of impact of Trump’s Iran war on next month’s budget

Guardian World•Iran Conflict•1h ago

Iran ConflictGuardian WorldHigh Risk

Middle East braces for more violence as Iran claims US is planning to renew bombing campaign

Guardian World•Iran Conflict•2h ago

Iran ConflictGuardian WorldHigh Risk

Andy Burnham faces a weakened Trump – but the president remains unpredictable

Guardian World•Iran Conflict•2h ago

Ukraine ConflictNYT WorldHigh Risk

Hundreds of Drones Target Moscow on Final Day of Russian Elections

NYT World•Ukraine Conflict•33 min ago

Ukraine ConflictCNBC WorldHigh Risk

Russia's ruling pro-Putin party on track to win wartime election after drones strike Moscow

CNBC World•Ukraine Conflict•56 min ago

Iran ConflictNYT WorldHigh Risk

Houthis Push to Expand Territory as Tensions With Saudi Arabia Rise

NYT World•Iran Conflict•3h ago

Iran ConflictBBC BusinessHigh Risk

Ed Davey calls for immediate 10p cut to fuel duty

BBC Business•Iran Conflict•6h ago

Iran ConflictCNBC WorldHigh Risk

U.S. urges Americans to reconsider Middle East travel as Iran tensions rise

CNBC World•Iran Conflict•6h ago

Iran ConflictFTHigh Risk

US retailer rations motor oil as prices quadruple and supplies run dry

FT•Iran Conflict•11h ago

Ukraine ConflictGuardian WorldHigh Risk

European spy chiefs warn Moscow is planning more decisive action against Nato

Guardian World•Ukraine Conflict•4h ago

Ukraine ConflictGuardian WorldHigh Risk

Ukraine targets Moscow with hundreds of drones on final day of Russian election

Guardian World•Ukraine Conflict•6h ago

Ukraine ConflictFTHigh Risk

Ukraine hits Moscow with ‘largest ever’ drone attack

FT•Ukraine Conflict•9h ago

Ukraine ConflictCNBC WorldHigh Risk

Ukraine launches heavy Moscow drone attack as Russia votes

CNBC World•Ukraine Conflict•9h ago

Ukraine ConflictNYT WorldHigh Risk

Russia Barred Their Party, but These Antiwar Voices Are Still Standing

NYT World•Ukraine Conflict•9h ago

Ukraine ConflictBBC WorldHigh Risk

Largest attack on Moscow sees Ukraine fire hundreds of drones, mayor says

BBC World•Ukraine Conflict•10h ago

Iran ConflictNYT WorldHigh Risk

In Significant Escalation, Houthis Attack Saudi Capital

NYT World•Iran Conflict•14h ago

Qatar PM urges Gulf security framework with Iran

Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’

UK minister warns of impact of Trump’s Iran war on next month’s budget

Middle East braces for more violence as Iran claims US is planning to renew bombing campaign

Andy Burnham faces a weakened Trump – but the president remains unpredictable

Hundreds of Drones Target Moscow on Final Day of Russian Elections

Russia&apos;s ruling pro-Putin party on track to win wartime election after drones strike Moscow

Houthis Push to Expand Territory as Tensions With Saudi Arabia Rise

Ed Davey calls for immediate 10p cut to fuel duty

U.S. urges Americans to reconsider Middle East travel as Iran tensions rise

US retailer rations motor oil as prices quadruple and supplies run dry

European spy chiefs warn Moscow is planning more decisive action against Nato

Ukraine targets Moscow with hundreds of drones on final day of Russian election

Ukraine hits Moscow with ‘largest ever’ drone attack

Ukraine launches heavy Moscow drone attack as Russia votes

Russia Barred Their Party, but These Antiwar Voices Are Still Standing

Largest attack on Moscow sees Ukraine fire hundreds of drones, mayor says

In Significant Escalation, Houthis Attack Saudi Capital

Russia's ruling pro-Putin party on track to win wartime election after drones strike Moscow