arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
This study identifies and quantifies a significant informational friction embedded in the SEC Form 144 disclosure regime, characterized as predictive decoupling. Drawing on a theoretical foundation of welfare economics, the article argues that the current reporting inversion -- where trade execution (Form 4) frequently precedes the public notice of intent (Form 144) -- violates the conditions for Pareto efficiency by…
Krishna Neupane
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
This paper examines whether SEC Form 4 insider purchase filings predict abnormal returns in U.S. microcap stocks. The analysis covers 17,237 open-market purchases across 1,343 issuers from 2018 through 2024, restricted to market capitalizations between \$30M and \$500M. A gradient boosting classifier trained on insider identity, transaction history, and market conditions at disclosure achieves AUC of 0.70 on out-of-s…
Hangyi Zhao
OpenAlex · Review of Financial Studies · 2022 · cites 210
Abstract We identify fixed-income mutual funds as an important contributor to the unusually high selling pressure in liquid asset markets during the COVID-19 crisis. We show that mutual funds experienced pronounced investor outflows amplified by their liquidity transformation. In meeting redemptions, funds followed a pecking order by first selling their liquid assets, including Treasuries and high-quality corporate b…
Yiming Ma, Kairong Xiao, Yao Zeng
OpenAlex · Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis · 2010 · cites 174
Abstract In this paper, we identify jumps in U.S. Treasury-bond (T-bond) prices and investigate what causes such unexpected large price changes. In particular, we examine the relative importance of macroeconomic news announcements versus variation in market liquidity in explaining the observed jumps in the U.S. Treasury market. We show that while jumps occur mostly at prescheduled macroeconomic announcement times, an…
George J. Jiang, Ingrid Lo, Adrien Verdelhan
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We develop a variational formulation of Kyle's model of informed trading that accommodates stochastic liquidity and multiple traded assets. The main equilibrium result is stated first: under a martingale dual condition, a matrix-valued martingale depth process generates a linear-Gaussian equilibrium with stochastic matrix-valued price impact. We derive this martingale from a primal-dual problem, inspired by causal op…
Ibrahim Ekren, Evangelos A. Nikitopoulos, Lu Vy
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Concentrated-liquidity automated market makers (CLAMMs), as exemplified by Uniswap v3, are now a common primitive in decentralized finance frameworks. Their design combines continuous trading on constant-function curves with discrete tick boundaries at which liquidity positions change and rounding effects accumulate. While there is a body of economic and game-theoretic analysis of CLAMMs, there is negligible work tha…
Julius Tranquilli, Naman Gupta
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
We study opportunistic optimal liquidation over fixed deadlines on BTC-USD limit-order books (LOB). We present RL-Exec, a PPO agent trained on historical replays augmented with endogenous transient impact (resilience), partial fills, maker/taker fees, and latency. The policy observes depth-20 LOB features plus microstructure indicators and acts under a sell-only inventory constraint to reach a residual target. Evalua…
Enzo Duflot, Stanislas Robineau
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Concentrated Liquidity Market Makers (CLMMs) represent a fundamental innovation in market microstructure, transforming liquidity provision from passive portfolio allocation to active risk management. This evolution creates significant challenges for performance evaluation and strategy optimization, particularly due to the absence of comprehensive historical liquidity data. We address these challenges through a novel …
Andrey Urusov, Rostislav Berezovskiy, Anatoly Krestenko, Andrei Kornilov, Yury Yanovich
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
This paper proposes an innovative Transformer model, Single-directional representative from Transformer (SERT), for US large capital stock pricing. It also innovatively applies the pre-trained Transformer models under the stock pricing and factor investment context. They are compared with standard Transformer models and encoder-only Transformer models in three periods covering the entire COVID-19 pandemic to examine …
Shanyan Lai
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
We study a multi-agent setting in which brokers transact with an informed trader. Through a sequential Stackelberg-type game, brokers manage trading costs and adverse selection with an informed trader. In particular, supplying liquidity to the informed traders allows the brokers to speculate based on the flow information. They simultaneously attempt to minimize inventory risk and trading costs with the lit market bas…
Ryan Donnelly, Zi Li
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
We study the formation of an optimal interbank network in a model where banks control both their supply of liquidity, through cash reserves, and their exposures to other banks' risky projects. The value of each bank's project may suddenly decline depending on their cash reserves and both the occurence and magnitude of liquidity shocks. In two distinct settings, we solve the system-wide optimal control problem and obt…
Daniel E. Rigobon, Ronnie Sircar
arXiv · arXiv · 2021
This study derives the expected liquidity cost when performing the delta hedging process of a European option. This cost is represented by an integration formula that includes European option prices and a certain function depending on the delta process. We first define a unit liquidity cost and then show that the liquidity cost is a multiplication of the unit liquidity cost, stock price, supply curve parameter, and t…
Kyungsub Lee, Byoung Ki Seo
arXiv · arXiv · 2019
We propose an option approach for pricing bond illiquidity that is reminiscent of the celebrated work of Longstaff (1995) on the non-marketability of some non-dividend-paying shares in IPOs. This approach describes a quite common situation in the fixed income market: it is rather usual to find issuers that, besides liquid benchmark bonds, issue some other bonds that either are placed to a small number of investors in…
Roberto Baviera, Aldo Nassigh, Emanuele Nastasi
arXiv · arXiv · 2018
A justification of the Basel liquidity formula for risk capital in the trading book is given under the assumption that market risk-factor changes form a Gaussian white noise process over 10-day time steps and changes to P&L are linear in the risk-factor changes. A generalization of the formula is derived under the more general assumption that risk-factor changes are multivariate elliptical. It is shown that the Basel…
Janine Balter, Alexander J. McNeil
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
We implement a market microstructure model including informed, uninformed and heuristic-driven investors, which latter behave in line with loss-aversion and mental accounting. We show that the probability of informed trading (PIN) varies significantly during 2008. In contrast, the probability of heuristic-driven trading (PH) remains constant both before and after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Cross-sectional analy…
Mihaly Ormos, Dusan Timotity
arXiv · arXiv · 2015
For the last two decades, most financial markets have undergone an evolution toward electronification. The market for corporate bonds is one of the last major financial markets to follow this unavoidable path. Traditionally quote-driven i.e., dealer-driven) rather than order-driven, the market for corporate bonds is still mainly dominated by voice trading, but a lot of electronic platforms have emerged. These electro…
Jean-David Fermanian, Olivier Guéant, Jiang Pu
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We present SAiFE_gym, a Python module that provides a collection of simulation environments for studying trading problems in Constant Product Markets (CPMs) with Concentrated Liquidity (CL). These markets give Liquidity Providers (LPs) granular control over how their capital is allocated and enable them to adjust their range of liquidity provision dynamically based on market conditions, which in turn, dictates how th…
Georgios Chionas, Charalampos Kleitsikas, Stefanos Leonardos, Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt, Carmine Ventre
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Classical market-making strategies based on stochastic control, such as the Avellaneda-Stoikov and the Guéant-Lehalle-Fernandez-Tapia (GLFT) extension, provide closed-form quoting rules, but rest on assumptions that break down at realistic microstructure timescales. One of them is that order flow is stationary, while empirical evidence points to the existence of regimes, possibly associated with algorithmic execution…
Felipe Moret, Fabrizio Lillo