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CTA Bond / Rates Carry Sleeve
Harvest roll-down and yield carry in bond and STIR futures — a rates-specific premia book that can fight the trend sleeve in a hiking cycle.
Metals CTA
Gold, silver, copper, and sometimes aluminum, zinc, nickel — a mix of monetary metals and industrial cycle metals.
Capacity Utilization
Capacity Utilization — How tight industrial capacity is, informing pricing power and capex cycles.
China Credit Impulse
China credit impulse measures the change in new credit growth relative to GDP and is widely used as a leading indicator for Chinese demand and global cyclical momentum.
Industrial Production
Industrial Production — Physical output trends that confirm or contradict financial market cyclical narratives.
Recession
A recession is a significant, persistent, broad decline in activity — in the US, an NBER call, not the two-negative-quarters rule.
China Property Cycle
China Property Cycle — Developer stress and land sales impacting global commodities and EM growth.
Cyclical Stock
A cyclical stock’s earnings move with the economic cycle — cheap at the peak and expensive at the trough if you use a spot multiple.
Sector Rotation Signals
Sector Rotation Signals — Cyclical versus defensive leadership indicating growth and rates regime.
Working Capital
Working capital is current operating assets minus current operating liabilities — the cash tied in the operating cycle.
Distressed Debt Ratio
Distressed Debt Ratio — Share of debt trading at deep discounts — early warning for credit cycle turns.
Countercyclical Capital Buffer
Countercyclical Capital Buffer — Bank capital requirements that tighten or ease through the credit cycle.
Soft Landing
A soft landing is disinflation (or a slowdown) without a recession — the hoped-for path off a hike cycle.
Yield Curve
The term structure of interest rates across maturities, used to read growth, liquidity, and stress expectations.
3M10Y Treasury Curve
The 3M10Y Treasury curve compares 10-year Treasury yields with 3-month Treasury bill yields and is closely watched as a recession and policy-cycle indicator.
12-Month Cycle in the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
Use same-calendar-month returns in prior years as a cross-sectional signal — annual seasonality in the stock sort.
12-Month Cycle in the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
Use same-calendar-month returns in prior years as a cross-sectional signal — annual seasonality in the stock sort.
3M10Y Treasury Curve
The 3M10Y Treasury curve compares 10-year Treasury yields with 3-month Treasury bill yields and is closely watched as a recession and policy-cycle indicator.
Capacity Utilization
Capacity Utilization — How tight industrial capacity is, informing pricing power and capex cycles.
China Property Cycle
China Property Cycle — Developer stress and land sales impacting global commodities and EM growth.
Countercyclical Capital Buffer
Countercyclical Capital Buffer — Bank capital requirements that tighten or ease through the credit cycle.
CTA Bond / Rates Carry Sleeve
Harvest roll-down and yield carry in bond and STIR futures — a rates-specific premia book that can fight the trend sleeve in a hiking cycle.
Cyclical Stock
A cyclical stock’s earnings move with the economic cycle — cheap at the peak and expensive at the trough if you use a spot multiple.
Distressed Debt Ratio
Distressed Debt Ratio — Share of debt trading at deep discounts — early warning for credit cycle turns.
Metals CTA
Gold, silver, copper, and sometimes aluminum, zinc, nickel — a mix of monetary metals and industrial cycle metals.
Soft Landing
A soft landing is disinflation (or a slowdown) without a recession — the hoped-for path off a hike cycle.
Working Capital
Working capital is current operating assets minus current operating liabilities — the cash tied in the operating cycle.