arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Current post-trade clearing systems rely almost exclusively on cash or cash-like collateral, leaving vast reserves of short-term liquidity embedded in trade credit outside formal settlement infrastructures. A key barrier to integrating this liquidity is the near-universal dependence of clearing services on novation, which imposes institutional overhead that restricts accessibility and limits the range of obligations …
Tomaž Fleischman, Ethan Buchman
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
Three traits of decentralized finance are studied. First, the market impact function is derived for optimal-growth liquidity providers. For a standard random walk, the classic square-root impact is recovered. An extension is then derived to fit general fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. These findings break with the linearized liquidity models used in most decentralized exchanges. Second, a Constant Product Mar…
B. K. Meister
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
We will look at the entire cycle of the investment process relating to all aspects of, formulating an investment hypothesis, constructing a portfolio based on that, executing the trades to implement it, on-going risk management, periodically measuring the performance of the portfolio, and rebalancing the portfolio either due to an increase in the risk parameters or due to a deviation from the intended asset allocatio…
Ravi Kashyap
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Banks are required to use long-term default probabilities (PDs) of their portfolios when calculating credit risk capital under internal ratings-based (IRB) models. However, the calibration models and historical data typically reflect prevailing market conditions. According to Basel recommendations, averaging annual PDs over a full economic cycle should yield the long-term PD. In practice, the available data are often…
Barbara Dömötör, Ferenc Illés
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This article examines how emerging economies use countercyclical monetary policies to manage economic crises and fluctuations in dominant currencies, such as the US dollar and the euro. Global economic cycles are marked by phases of expansion and recession, often exacerbated by major financial crises. These crises, such as those of 1997, 2008 and the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, have a particular impac…
Hugo Spring-Ragain
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This paper considers the constrained portfolio optimization in a generalized life-cycle model. The individual with a stochastic income manages a portfolio consisting of stocks, a bond, and life insurance to maximize their consumption level, death benefit, and terminal wealth. Meanwhile, the individual faces a convex-set trading constraint, with the non-tradeable asset constraint, no short-selling constraint, and no b…
Wenyuan Li, Pengyu Wei
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
In the wake of relentless digital transformation, data-driven solutions are emerging as powerful tools to address multifarious industrial tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, planning, and even complex decision-making. Although data-centric R&D has been pivotal in harnessing these solutions, it often comes with significant costs in terms of human, computational, and time resources. This paper delves into the…
Xu Yang, Xiao Yang, Weiqing Liu, Jinhui Li, Peng Yu
arXiv · arXiv · 2020
We investigate how the relationship between managerial stock incentives and the dividend payout policy is impacted by the business cycle by using the data of S&P 1500 companies during 2000-2018. We find a strong negative relationship between managerial stock options and annual dividend payouts of companies for the full sample. Although the direction of the relationship is also negative for the recession period, the c…
Asmar Aliyeva
arXiv · arXiv · 2017
This short note is intended as a "Letter to the Editor" Perspective in order that it serves as a contribution, in view of reaching the physics community caring about rare events and scaling laws and unexpected findings, on a domain of wide interest: sport and money. It is apparent from the data reported and discussed below that the scarcity of such data does not allow to recommend a complex elaboration of an agent ba…
Marcel Ausloos
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households. On the supply side, firms decide on production based on adaptive expectations for sales demand and a desired level of inventories. On the demand side, investment is determined as a function of utilization and profitability and can be financed by debt, whereas consumption is independently de…
Matheus Grasselli, Adrien Nguyen-Huu
arXiv · arXiv · 2014
We present a simple agent-based model of a financial system composed of leveraged investors such as banks that invest in stocks and manage their risk using a Value-at-Risk constraint, based on historical observations of asset prices. The Value-at-Risk constraint implies that when perceived risk is low, leverage is high and vice versa, a phenomenon that has been dubbed pro-cyclical leverage. We show that this leads to…
Christoph Aymanns, J. Doyne Farmer
arXiv · arXiv · 2013
I sketch a program for a microeconomic theory of the main component of the business cycle as a recurring disequilibrium, driven by incompleteness of the financial market and by information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. This proposal seeks to incorporate five distinct but connected processes that have been discussed at varying lengths in the literature: the leverage cycle, financial panic, debt deflation,…
Alejandro Jenkins
arXiv · arXiv · 2008
Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable. But the small number of available observations and small number of economies mean that the empirical correlation matrix may contain considerable noise. Random matrix theory was devel…
Paul Ormerod
OpenAlex · American Economic Review · 2012 · cites 2281
Using micro-level data, we construct a credit spread index with considerable predictive power for future economic activity. We decompose the credit spread into a component that captures firm-specific information on expected defaults and a residual component–– the excess bond premium. Shocks to the excess bond premium that are orthogonal to the current state of the economy lead to declines in economic activity and ass…
Simon Gilchrist, Egon Zakrajšek
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2026
This paper develops a three-currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework in which corporate credit is treated as a separate economy, connected to the nominal and real economies through synthetic inflation and credit exchange rates. The framework produces a testable identity. Under joint no-arbitrage, the credit spread of an issuer expressed over the inflation-rateindexed risk-free curve equals the same issuer's credit spre…
Raphael Coelho
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
This study examines how institutional differences and external crises shape volatility dynamics in emerging Asian stock markets. Using daily stock index returns for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines from 2010 to 2024, we estimate EGARCH(1,1) and TGARCH(1,1) models in a by-window design. The sample is split into the 2013 Taper Tantrum, the 2020-2021 COVID-19 period, the 2022-2023 rate-hike cycle, and tranquil p…
Junlin Yang
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2010
If the probability of default parameters (PDs) fed as input into a credit portfolio model are estimated as through-the-cycle (TTC) PDs stressed market conditions have little impact on the results of the capital calculations conducted with the model. At first glance, this is totally different if the PDs are estimated as point-in-time (PIT) PDs. However, it can be argued that the reflection of stressed market condition…
Norbert Jobst, Dirk Tasche
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2020
We develop a novel five-component decomposition of optimal dynamic portfolio choice, which reveals the simultaneous impacts from market incompleteness and wealth-dependent utilities. Under the HARA utility and a nonrandom interest rate, we can explicitly solve for the optimal policy as a combination of a bond holding scheme and the corresponding simpler CRRA strategy. Under a stochastic volatility model estimated on …
Chenxu Li, Olivier Scaillet, Yiwen Shen