Economy · Core
Recession
A recession is a significant, persistent, broad decline in activity — in the US, an NBER call, not the two-negative-quarters rule.
Definition
NBER looks at depth, diffusion, and duration of income, jobs, spending, and output. Two negative GDP quarters is a rule of thumb that both misses (shallow) and false-alarms (inventory). Unemployment jumps are the ugly ones.
Why it matters
Credit, earnings, and policy pivot on it. The call is late; markets are early and often wrong.
Case
2022 H1 US GDP was negative while jobs grew. The two-quarter rule screamed; NBER did not call it. The word was a political fight, not a cycle.
How to read it
Jobs, real GDI, and credit. GDP alone is not the committee. Date the peak only after the data, not after the tweet.
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