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Copper Price
Copper price is widely used as a proxy for industrial activity, manufacturing demand, and global growth expectations.
Priced In
Priced in means the event or path is already in the forwards, the curve, or the multiple — so the announcement is not new information unless it surprises that path.
Hysteresis
Hysteresis is path dependence: a temporary shock permanently scars the level of output, employment, or inflation expectations instead of washing out.
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index — Household expectations that influence spending, labor supply, and political pressure on policy.
Inflation Expectations Survey
Inflation Expectations Survey — Household and market-based expectations that can de-anchor if policy credibility erodes.
US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation
US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation reflects the inflation rate implied by the gap between nominal Treasuries and TIPS, serving as a market-based gauge of long-term inflation expectations.
Primary Dealer Survey
Primary Dealer Survey — Desk-level policy expectations that front-run official communications.
FRA-OIS Spread
FRA-OIS spread measures the difference between interbank funding expectations and overnight indexed swap rates, often used as a gauge of banking and short-term funding stress.
Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance — How central bank language shapes term premium and front-end rate expectations before actual policy moves.
Yield Curve
The term structure of interest rates across maturities, used to read growth, liquidity, and stress expectations.
Law of Iterated Expectations
The law of iterated expectations says E[E[X | finer info]] = E[X | coarser info] — you cannot improve an expectation by forgetting information, and towers of forecasts must nest.
2s10s Treasury Curve
The 2s10s Treasury curve measures the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields and is a key indicator of growth expectations, policy path, and term structure dynamics.
2s10s Treasury Curve
The 2s10s Treasury curve measures the spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields and is a key indicator of growth expectations, policy path, and term structure dynamics.
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer Confidence Index — Household expectations that influence spending, labor supply, and political pressure on policy.
Copper Price
Copper price is widely used as a proxy for industrial activity, manufacturing demand, and global growth expectations.
Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance — How central bank language shapes term premium and front-end rate expectations before actual policy moves.
FRA-OIS Spread
FRA-OIS spread measures the difference between interbank funding expectations and overnight indexed swap rates, often used as a gauge of banking and short-term funding stress.
Hysteresis
Hysteresis is path dependence: a temporary shock permanently scars the level of output, employment, or inflation expectations instead of washing out.
Inflation Expectations Survey
Inflation Expectations Survey — Household and market-based expectations that can de-anchor if policy credibility erodes.
Law of Iterated Expectations
The law of iterated expectations says E[E[X | finer info]] = E[X | coarser info] — you cannot improve an expectation by forgetting information, and towers of forecasts must nest.
Primary Dealer Survey
Primary Dealer Survey — Desk-level policy expectations that front-run official communications.
US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation
US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation reflects the inflation rate implied by the gap between nominal Treasuries and TIPS, serving as a market-based gauge of long-term inflation expectations.
Yield Curve
The term structure of interest rates across maturities, used to read growth, liquidity, and stress expectations.