Primary Dealer Survey
Primary Dealer Survey — Desk-level policy expectations that front-run official communications.
Definition
Primary Dealer Survey refers to desk-level policy expectations that front-run official communications. Keep that definition fixed when comparing series, managers, or regimes — renaming the same tape does not create a new signal.
Why it matters
Duration, curve, and carry decide whether a macro view survives into P&L. When desk-level policy expectations that front-run official communications shifts, related hedges, limits, and narratives usually need an explicit update rather than a quiet assumption.
Case
Suppose a desk is positioned for the opposite of what primary dealer survey is saying. If desk-level policy expectations that front-run official communications moves against that book, the first question is not “is the story clever?” but whether size, hedges, and stop logic still match the observation.
How to read it
Always state the tenor and roll-down assumption; parallel-shift shortcuts hide curve risk. Prefer a short written null hypothesis for Primary Dealer Survey: what would falsify the current reading in the next window?