OpenAlex · Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis · 2010 · cites 174
Abstract In this paper, we identify jumps in U.S. Treasury-bond (T-bond) prices and investigate what causes such unexpected large price changes. In particular, we examine the relative importance of macroeconomic news announcements versus variation in market liquidity in explaining the observed jumps in the U.S. Treasury market. We show that while jumps occur mostly at prescheduled macroeconomic announcement times, an…
George J. Jiang, Ingrid Lo, Adrien Verdelhan
OpenAlex · The Journal of Finance · 1999 · cites 731
The arrival of public information in the U.S. Treasury market sets off a two‐stage adjustment process for prices, trading volume, and bid‐ask spreads. In a brief first stage, the release of a major macroeconomic announcement induces a sharp and nearly instantaneous price change with a reduction in trading volume, demonstrating that price reactions to public information do not require trading. The spread widens dramat…
Michael J. Fleming, Eli M. Remolona
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This study identifies and quantifies a significant informational friction embedded in the SEC Form 144 disclosure regime, characterized as predictive decoupling. Drawing on a theoretical foundation of welfare economics, the article argues that the current reporting inversion -- where trade execution (Form 4) frequently precedes the public notice of intent (Form 144) -- violates the conditions for Pareto efficiency by…
Krishna Neupane
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
We consider a central trading desk which aggregates the inflow of clients' orders with unobserved toxicity, i.e. persistent adverse directionality. The desk chooses either to internalise the inflow or externalise it to the market in a cost effective manner. In this model, externalising the order flow creates both price impact costs and an additional market feedback reaction for the inflow of trades. The desk's object…
Alexander Barzykin, Robert Boyce, Eyal Neuman
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
We investigate the information content of 3PROTV, a south Korean financial youtube channel. In our sample we found evidence for the hypothesis that the channel have information content on stock selection, but only on negative sentiment. Positively mentioned stock had pre-announcement spike followed by steep fall in stock price around announcement period. Negatively mentioned stock started underperforming around the a…
HyeonJun Kim
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
We propose a non-linear observation-driven version of the Hasbrouck (1991) model for dynamically estimating trades' market impact and information content. We find that market impact displays an intraday pattern superimposed with large fluctuations. Some of them are exogenous, and, as an example, we investigate market impact dynamics around FOMC announcements. Contrary to Hasbrouck (1991), we find that the information…
F. Campigli, G. Bormetti, F. Lillo
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
Active portfolio management tries to incorporate any source of meaningful information into the asset selection process. In this contribution we consider qualitative views specified as total orders of the expected asset returns and discuss two different approaches for incorporating this input in a mean-variance portfolio optimization model. In the robust optimization approach we first compute a posterior expectation o…
Eranda Çela, Stephan Hafner, Roland Mestel, Ulrich Pferschy
arXiv · arXiv · 2017
Market Microstructure is the investigation of the process and protocols that govern the exchange of assets with the objective of reducing frictions that can impede the transfer. In financial markets, where there is an abundance of recorded information, this translates to the study of the dynamic relationships between observed variables, such as price, volume and spread, and hidden constituents, such as transaction co…
Ravi Kashyap
arXiv · arXiv · 2016
We consider trading against a hedge fund or large trader that must liquidate a large position in a risky asset if the market price of the asset crosses a certain threshold. Liquidation occurs in a disorderly manner and negatively impacts the market price of the asset. We consider the perspective of small investors whose trades do not induce market impact and who possess different levels of information about the liqui…
Caroline Hillairet, Cody Hyndman, Ying Jiao, Renjie Wang
arXiv · arXiv · 2015
The role of credit rating agencies has been under severe scrutiny after the subprime crisis. In this paper we explore the relationship between credit ratings and informational efficiency of a sample of thirty nine corporate bonds of US oil and energy companies from April 2008 to November 2012. For that purpose, we use a powerful statistical tool relatively new in the financial literature: the complexity-entropy causa…
Aurelio F. Bariviera, Luciano Zunino, M. Belen Guercio, Lisana B. Martinez, Osvaldo A. Rosso
arXiv · arXiv · 2010
This paper presents an overview of information-based asset pricing. In this approach, an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. The market is assumed to have access to "partial" information about future cash flows. Each cash flow is determined by a collection of independent market factors called X-factors. The market filtration is generated by a set of information processes, each of which carries information ab…
Dorje C. Brody, Lane P. Hughston, Andrea Macrina
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We propose an information-geometric framework for credit risk monitoring in which a bank's knowledge of a borrower is represented by a posterior distribution over latent dimensions of creditworthiness and financial fragility. Under a linear-Gaussian specification, Bayesian updating maps observed behavioural scores into Gaussian posterior beliefs, which form a statistical manifold endowed with the Fisher information m…
Lorenzo Quirini
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This study develops an agent-based financial market model to explain stock-price momentum and reversal through the joint effects of local herding and delayed information diffusion. Investors form heterogeneous Gaussian beliefs about the next-period price, choose among buying, selling, and remaining inactive, and revise their action probabilities in response to neighboring investors. The local interaction structure is…
Jiahao Weng
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We characterise minimum-distortion wealth taxation under two contrasting normative criteria within a Fokker-Planck framework on log-wealth: the JKO free-energy gap, an information-theoretic measure aligned with the Mirrleesian decision-distortion tradition, and the squared 2-Wasserstein distance from the no-tax distribution at horizon $T$, a transport-geometric measure aligned with the Saez-Zucman distributional-comp…
Anders G Frøseth
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This paper provides a controlled comparison of six information bar types (dollar, volume, volatility, range, Renko, and hybrid bars) constructed from both raw Binance aggTrade tick data and one-minute OHLCV bars for the BTCUSDT USDT-margined perpetual futures market over a six-year period spanning January 2020 to December 2025, and evaluated against fixed-interval time-bar baselines. Both pipelines share a common ada…
Muhammad Toheed Fayyaz, Abdul Jabbar, Faheem Ahmad Qureshi, Syed Qaisar Jalil
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
Conditional portfolio choice depends on the information used to define conditional moments, yet that information is typically taken as given. We introduce causal separation for portfolio choice: a portfolio-information principle in which horizon-closed conditioning screens asset returns into mutually conditionally independent components, with a common-cause structural model providing its causal interpretation. Exact …
Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We study the single-period portfolio selection problem under Constant Relative Risk-Aversion (CRRA) utility through the information-theoretic lens. Assuming only that the market payoff vector has finite support, we show that the Certainty-Equivalent (CE) growth rate under CRRA utility can be decomposed into a portfolio-induced Rényi divergence term, a Rényi entropy term of the risk-tilted market law, and a log-partit…
Bo-Yu Yang, Michael Gastpar
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
April 2026 saw notable methodological convergence in the academic study of informed trading on decentralized prediction markets. Three approaches surfaced almost simultaneously: Mitts and Ofir (2026) apply a composite screen to over 210,000 wallet-market pairs; Gomez-Cram et al. (2026) apply an event-level sign-randomization test to Polymarket's complete transaction history, classifying 3.14% of accounts as "skilled …
Maksym Nechepurenko