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We present a deep learning approach for forecasting short-term employment changes and assessing long-term industry health using labor market data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Our system leverages a Long- and Short-Term Time-series Network (LSTNet) to process multivariate time series data, including employment levels, wages, turnover rates, and job openings. The model outputs both 7-day employment forecas…
Low inflation was once a welcome to both policy makers and the public. However, Japan's experience during the 1990's changed the consensus view on price of economists and central banks around the world. Facing deflation and zero interest bound at the same time, Bank of Japan had difficulty in conducting effective monetary policy. It made Japan's stagnation unusually prolonged. Too low inflation which annoys central b…
We consider an infinite horizon portfolio problem with borrowing constraints, in which an agent receives labor income which adjusts to financial market shocks in a path dependent way. This path-dependency is the novelty of the model, and leads to an infinite dimensional stochastic optimal control problem. We solve the problem completely, and find explicitly the optimal controls in feedback form. This is possible beca…
The persistence of racial inequality in the U.S. labor market against a general backdrop of formal equality of opportunity is a troubling phenomenon that has significant ramifications on the design of hiring policies. In this paper, we show that current group disparate outcomes may be immovable even when hiring decisions are bound by an input-output notion of "individual fairness." Instead, we construct a dynamic rep…
Labor market institutions are central for modern economies, and their polices can directly affect unemployment rates and economic growth. At the individual level, unemployment often has a detrimental impact on people's well-being and health. At the national level, high employment is one of the central goals of any economic policy, due to its close association with national prosperity. The main goal of this thesis is …
We introduce a toy probabilistic model to analyze job-matching processes in recent Japanese labor markets for university graduates by means of statistical physics. We show that the aggregation probability of each company is rewritten by means of non-linear map under several conditions. Mathematical treatment of the map enables us to discuss the condition on which the rankings of arbitrary two companies are reversed d…
The decision to annuitize wealth in retirement planning has become increasingly complex due to rising longevity risk and changing retirement patterns, including increased labor force participation at older ages. While an extensive literature studies consumption, labor, and annuitization decisions, these elements are typically examined in isolation. This paper develops a unified stochastic control and optimal stopping…
We consider the problem of optimal annuitization with labour income, where an agent aims to maximize utility from consumption and labour income under age-dependent force of mortality. Using a dynamic programming approach, we derive closed-form solutions for the value function and the optimal consumption, portfolio, and labor supply strategies. Our results show that before retirement, investment behavior increases wit…
Classical recommender systems often assume that historical data are stationary and fail to account for the dynamic nature of user preferences, limiting their ability to provide reliable recommendations in time-sensitive settings. This assumption is particularly problematic in finance, where financial products exhibit continuous changes in valuations, leading to frequent shifts in client interests. These evolving inte…
In many businesses, and particularly in finance, the behavior of a client might drastically change over time. It is consequently crucial for recommender systems used in such environments to be able to adapt to these changes. In this study, we propose a novel collaborative filtering algorithm that captures the temporal context of a user-item interaction through the users' and items' recent interaction histories to pro…
Modern investigation in economics and in other sciences requires the ability to store, share, and replicate results and methods of experiments that are often multidisciplinary and yield a massive amount of data. Given the increasing complexity and growing interaction across diverse bodies of knowledge it is becoming imperative to define a platform to properly support collaborative research and track origin, accuracy …
We introduce a probabilistic model of labor markets for university graduates, in particular, in Japan. To make a model of the market efficiently, we take into account several hypotheses. Namely, each company fixes the (business year independent) number of opening positions for newcomers. The ability of gathering newcomers depends on the result of job matching process in past business years. This fact means that the a…
The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor force. All models were first estimated in 2005 for the period between 1980 and 2003. Here we update these original models with data through 2012. The revisited models accurately de…
The excessive compensation packages of CEOs of U.S. corporations in recent years have brought to the foreground the issue of fairness in economics. The conventional wisdom is that the free market for labor, which determines the pay packages, cares only about efficiency and not fairness. We present an alternative theory that shows that an ideal free market environment also promotes fairness, as an emergent property re…
This paper advances theory on the process of collaboration between entities and its implications on the quality of services, information, and/or products (SIPs) that the collaborating entities provide to each other. It investigates the scenario of outsourced IS projects (such as custom software development) where the extent of collaboration between a client and vendor is high. Using the social exchange theory, the pr…
Labor productivity was studied at the microscopic level in terms of distributions based on individual firm financial data from Japan and the US. A power-law distribution in terms of firms and sector productivity was found in both countries' data. The labor productivities were not equal for nation and sectors, in contrast to the prevailing view in the field of economics. It was found that the low productivity of the J…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, p(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+ A2, where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients, was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by A0=-1, A1=4, A2=0.095, t0=4 years, and t1=4 years. For GDP deflator, it provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE) of 1.0% at a …
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965 and 2002 (the best among other inflation forecasting models). This relationship is tested for cointegration. Both variables…
Hysteresis is path dependence: a temporary shock permanently scars the level of output, employment, or inflation expectations instead of washing out.
NAIRU is the unemployment rate consistent with stable inflation — below it, wage/price pressure tends to rise; above it, inflation tends to cool.
Okun’s law is the empirical link between unemployment changes and GDP growth — a rule of thumb, not a structural identity.
Beveridge Curve — Vacancy-unemployment relationship signaling matching efficiency and structural labor shifts.
Consumer Confidence Index — Household expectations that influence spending, labor supply, and political pressure on policy.
Housing Starts — Rate-sensitive construction activity with multiplier effects across materials and labor.
Labor Force Participation — Supply-side labor availability affecting wage pressure and potential output estimates.
Nonfarm Payrolls — The headline US jobs report that routinely moves rates, FX, and equity index volatility.
Phillips Curve — The relationship between labor market tightness and inflation dynamics, heavily debated in post-pandemic regimes.
Stagflation is high inflation with stagnant growth and a soft labor market — the 1970s regime that breaks the simple Phillips cartoon.
Unemployment Rate — Labor slack measure tied to wage pressure, consumption resilience, and recession rule signals.
Unit Labor Costs — Compensation per unit of output — a core driver of services inflation persistence.
Wage Growth — Nominal pay momentum that feeds services inflation persistence and Fed reaction functions.
Beveridge Curve — Vacancy-unemployment relationship signaling matching efficiency and structural labor shifts.
Consumer Confidence Index — Household expectations that influence spending, labor supply, and political pressure on policy.
Housing Starts — Rate-sensitive construction activity with multiplier effects across materials and labor.
Labor Force Participation — Supply-side labor availability affecting wage pressure and potential output estimates.
Phillips Curve — The relationship between labor market tightness and inflation dynamics, heavily debated in post-pandemic regimes.
Stagflation is high inflation with stagnant growth and a soft labor market — the 1970s regime that breaks the simple Phillips cartoon.
Unemployment Rate — Labor slack measure tied to wage pressure, consumption resilience, and recession rule signals.
Unit Labor Costs — Compensation per unit of output — a core driver of services inflation persistence.