Stagflation
Stagflation is high inflation with stagnant growth and a soft labor market — the 1970s regime that breaks the simple Phillips cartoon.
Definition
Stagflation refers to the 1970s regime that breaks the simple Phillips cartoon. Keep that definition fixed when comparing series, managers, or regimes — renaming the same tape does not create a new signal.
Why it matters
It frames the cyclical backdrop that equity, credit, and rates desks price into risk budgets. When the 1970s regime that breaks the simple Phillips cartoon shifts, related hedges, limits, and narratives usually need an explicit update rather than a quiet assumption.
Case
Suppose a desk is positioned for the opposite of what stagflation is saying. If the 1970s regime that breaks the simple Phillips cartoon moves against that book, the first question is not “is the story clever?” but whether size, hedges, and stop logic still match the observation.
How to read it
Read with revisions, survey soft data, and market-implied paths — prints without the revision cycle mislead. Prefer a short written null hypothesis for Stagflation: what would falsify the current reading in the next window?
Ask the macro AI about this object
Opens Copilot with Codex + RAG context, or send the object into Alpha Factory intake.