arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2021
This research aims to demonstrate a dynamic cointegration-based pairs trading strategy, including an optimal look-back window framework in the cryptocurrency market, and evaluate its return and risk by applying three different scenarios. We employ the Engle-Granger methodology, the Kapetanios-Snell-Shin (KSS) test, and the Johansen test as cointegration tests in different scenarios. We calibrate the mean-reversion sp…
Masood Tadi, Irina Kortchmeski
arXiv · arXiv q-fin · 2025
We propose a profitable trading strategy for the cryptocurrency market based on grid trading. Starting with an analysis of the expected value of the traditional grid strategy, we show that under simple assumptions, its expected return is essentially zero. We then introduce a novel Dynamic Grid-based Trading (DGT) strategy that adapts to market conditions by dynamically resetting grid positions. Our backtesting result…
Kai-Yuan Chen, Kai-Hsin Chen, Jyh-Shing Roger Jang
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Concentrated Liquidity Market Makers (CLMMs) represent a fundamental innovation in market microstructure, transforming liquidity provision from passive portfolio allocation to active risk management. This evolution creates significant challenges for performance evaluation and strategy optimization, particularly due to the absence of comprehensive historical liquidity data. We address these challenges through a novel …
Andrey Urusov, Rostislav Berezovskiy, Anatoly Krestenko, Andrei Kornilov, Yury Yanovich
arXiv · arXiv · 2023
In this paper, we present a novel trading strategy that integrates reinforcement learning methods with clustering techniques for portfolio management in multi-period trading. Specifically, we leverage the clustering method to categorize stocks into various clusters based on their financial indices. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic to determine the trading actions for stocks w…
Zhengyong Jiang, Jeyan Thiayagalingam, Jionglong Su, Jinjun Liang
arXiv · arXiv · 2021
This work proposes a novel portfolio management technique, the Meta Portfolio Method (MPM), inspired by the successes of meta approaches in the field of bioinformatics and elsewhere. The MPM uses XGBoost to learn how to switch between two risk-based portfolio allocation strategies, the Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) and more classical Naïve Risk Parity (NRP). It is demonstrated that the MPM is able to successfully ta…
Damian Kisiel, Denise Gorse
arXiv · arXiv · 2021
With the improvement of computer performance and the development of GPU-accelerated technology, trading with machine learning algorithms has attracted the attention of many researchers and practitioners. In this research, we propose a novel portfolio management strategy based on the framework of Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, a policy-based reinforcement learning framework, and compare its performance to that of…
Huanming Zhang, Zhengyong Jiang, Jionglong Su
arXiv · arXiv · 2024
This paper introduces a new risk-on risk-off strategy for the stock market, which combines a financial stress indicator with a sentiment analysis done by ChatGPT reading and interpreting Bloomberg daily market summaries. Forecasts of market stress derived from volatility and credit spreads are enhanced when combined with the financial news sentiment derived from GPT-4. As a result, the strategy shows improved perform…
Baptiste Lefort, Eric Benhamou, Jean-Jacques Ohana, David Saltiel, Beatrice Guez
arXiv · arXiv · 2019
In this paper, the Kyle model of insider trading is extended by characterizing the trading volume with long memory and allowing the noise trading volatility to follow a general stochastic process. Under this newly revised model, the equilibrium conditions are determined, with which the optimal insider trading strategy, price impact and price volatility are obtained explicitly. The volatility of the price volatility a…
Ben-zhang Yang, Xinjiang He, Nan-jing Huang
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Stock trading strategies play a critical role in investment. However, it is challenging to design a profitable strategy in a complex and dynamic stock market. In this paper, we propose an ensemble strategy that employs deep reinforcement schemes to learn a stock trading strategy by maximizing investment return. We train a deep reinforcement learning agent and obtain an ensemble trading strategy using three actor-crit…
Hongyang Yang, Xiao-Yang Liu, Shan Zhong, Anwar Walid
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, public firms that hold large crypto reserves as a core strategy, deliver levered exposure to digital assets but face acute downside risk when equity premia over net asset value multiples (mNAV) compress in bear markets. This paper develops a survival framework that couples conservative treasury policy with an operating line that monetizes holdings independent of mark-to-market …
Hongzhe Wen
arXiv · arXiv · 2025
This paper investigates the evolving link between cryptocurrency and equity markets in the context of the recent wave of corporate Bitcoin (BTC) treasury strategies. We assemble a dataset of 39 publicly listed firms holding BTC, from their first acquisition through April 2025. Using daily logarithmic returns, we first document significant positive co-movements via Pearson correlations and single factor model regressi…
Sabrina Aufiero, Antonio Briola, Tesfaye Salarin, Fabio Caccioli, Silvia Bartolucci
arXiv · arXiv · 2022
Designing an intelligent volume-weighted average price (VWAP) strategy is a critical concern for brokers, since traditional rule-based strategies are relatively static that cannot achieve a lower transaction cost in a dynamic market. Many studies have tried to minimize the cost via reinforcement learning, but there are bottlenecks in improvement, especially for long-duration strategies such as the VWAP strategy. To a…
Xiaodong Li, Pangjing Wu, Chenxin Zou, Qing Li
arXiv · arXiv · 2018
We proposed a new Portfolio Management method termed as Robust Log-Optimal Strategy (RLOS), which ameliorates the General Log-Optimal Strategy (GLOS) by approximating the traditional objective function with quadratic Taylor expansion. It avoids GLOS's complex CDF estimation process,hence resists the "Butterfly Effect" caused by estimation error. Besides,RLOS retains GLOS's profitability and the optimization problem i…
Yifeng Guo, Xingyu Fu, Yuyan Shi, Mingwen Liu
arXiv · arXiv · 2014
This paper studies four trading algorithms of a professional trader at a multilateral trading facility, observing a realistic two-sided limit order book whose dynamics are driven by the order book events. The identity of the trader can be either internalizing or regular, either a hedge fund or a brokery agency. The speed and cost of trading can be balanced by properly choosing active strategies on the displayed order…
Qinghua Li
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
We study whether nuclear and energy-adjacent equity options exhibit a harvestable variance risk premium. Using CRSP and OptionMetrics data for 2000-2024, we construct a systematic cash-secured short-put strategy on a curated universe of nuclear-related firms. The strategy compares at-the-money put implied volatility with GARCH-based realized volatility forecasts, then evaluates unconditional and IV/RV-filtered put-wr…
Jilang Miao, Nonna Sorokina
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
How much capital a trading strategy can absorb before its edge disappears is a causal question about how much is deployed, but it is answered with observational proxies that rest on incompatible assumptions. We ask what experiment would answer it instead, and show that two features of the problem interact to constrain any answer. Deployed capital erodes the edge gradually, so a trial of fixed length measures less tha…
Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez, Miquel Noguer i Alonso
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
LLM agents are increasingly cast as autonomous portfolio managers, and benchmarks have moved from financial question-answering to sequential trading. Yet most still rank agents by returns over a fixed window, a weak proxy: the market path dominates a period's return, and apparent alpha can dissolve once look-ahead leakage is controlled. We introduce CLQT, which reframes closed-loop trading evaluation as diagnosis bef…
Bo Qu, Mingguang Chen
arXiv · arXiv · 2026
This study aims to determine whether the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as a specialized execution overlay can enhance pair trading in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets. Although classical implementations of the strategy have proven successful in traditional equities, they frequently exhibit rigidity and suffer from severe divergence risks when applied to high-variance environments. To address …
Damian Lebiedź, Robert Ślepaczuk