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Market timing is an investment technique that tries to continuously switch investment into assets forecast to have better returns. What is the likelihood of having a successful market timing strategy? With an emphasis on modeling simplicity, I calculate the feasible set of market timing portfolios using index mutual fund data for perfectly timed (by hindsight) all or nothing quarterly switching between two asset clas…
Timing-based tilts across asset classes can drive much of the risk and return of a diversified cross-asset portfolio. The standard approach forecasts returns and then optimizes weights. We instead study an end-to-end AI-based policy that maps market states directly to portfolio weights, and we then ask when this one-step modeling approach outperforms simple rules-based strategies. We train these policies on the sixte…
A novel procedure is presented for the objective comparison and evaluation of a bank's decision rules in optimising the timing of loan recovery. This procedure is based on finding a delinquency threshold at which the financial loss of a loan portfolio (or segment therein) is minimised. Our procedure is an expert system that incorporates the time value of money, costs, and the fundamental trade-off between accumulatin…
We develop a fundamentally different stochastic dynamic programming model of trading costs. Built on a strong theoretical foundation, our model provides insights to market participants by splitting the overall move of the security price during the duration of an order into the Market Impact (price move caused by their actions) and Market Timing (price move caused by everyone else) components. We derive formulations o…
In financial markets, a sequential policy that reacts systematically to price movements may become predictable to other market participants. This paper studies whether large language model (LLM) agents exhibit such directional structure through RetailAgent, an experimental framework in which an LLM observes anonymized intraday equity price histories and permitted state, then repeatedly chooses long (hold the stock) o…
This paper studies conditional allocation between a growth/technology ETF basket, denoted by $G$, and a defensive income/value-oriented ETF basket, denoted by $D$. The objective is not to discover a new standalone alpha factor, but to examine whether known style exposures can be dynamically allocated using macro-market timing signals. Fama-French five-factor plus momentum attribution shows that the relative portfolio…
Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) are a primary vehicle for retail equity participation in India, yet the impact of their intra-month timing remains underexplored. This study offers a 22-year (2003--2024) comparative analysis of SIP performance in the Nifty 50 index, contrasting the conventional first-trading-day (FTD-SIP) strategy with an alternative aligned to monthly Futures and Options expiry days (EXP-SIP). Usi…
The paper examines the performance of regression models (OLS linear regression, Ridge regression, Random Forest, and Fully-connected Neural Network) on the prediction of CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive) factor premium and the performance of factor timing investment with them. Out-of-sample R-squared shows that more flexible models have better performance in explaining the variance in factor premium of the unseen p…
This paper studies the market phenomenon of non-convergence between futures and spot prices in the grains market. We postulate that the positive basis observed at maturity stems from the futures holder's timing options to exercise the shipping certificate delivery item and subsequently liquidate the physical grain. In our proposed approach, we incorporate stochastic spot price and storage cost, and solve an optimal d…
We study the optimal timing of derivative purchases in incomplete markets. In our model, an investor attempts to maximize the spread between her model price and the offered market price through optimally timing her purchase. Both the investor and the market value the options by risk-neutral expectations but under different equivalent martingale measures representing different market views. The structure of the result…
Unlike developed market, some emerging markets are dominated by retail and unprofessional trading. China A share market is a good and fitting example in last 20 years. Meanwhile, lots of research show professional investor in China A share market continuously generate excess return compare with total market index. Specifically, this excess return mostly come from stock selectivity ability instead of market timing. Ho…
We audit whether candle-based machine-learning models can turn predictions of cryptocurrency extrema or short-horizon outcomes into positive Binance Spot paper policies after assumed costs. Numerical results come from scripted fixed-seed model runs and deterministic simulators; human-supervised AI agents supported the July 20 evidence-integrity revision through literature retrieval, separately tasked critique, artifa…
We present a methodology for obtaining explicit solutions to infinite time horizon optimal stopping problems involving general, one-dimensional, Itô diffusions, payoff functions that need not be smooth and state-dependent discounting. This is done within a framework based on dynamic programming techniques employing variational inequalities and links to the probabilistic approaches employing $r$-excessive functions an…
Building event-conditioned market models requires separating macro-event labels from persistent microstructure state. We study this distinction in Binance BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT futures from 2023-2026, combining top-20 L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows. We define a supervised discrete L2 liquidity-state transition task, distinct from latent-regime detection and price-direction prediction, a…
We study cash-flow forecasting for derivatives used in liquidity management and clarify its relation to risk-neutral valuation and replication. While it is well known that expectations under different measures (e.g., $\mathbb{P}$ vs. $\mathbb{Q}$) can yield different undiscounted cash-flows, further inconsistencies arise when payment times are stochastic. We show that using discounting sensitivities (funding-curve he…
In this work, we introduce PEARL (Private Equity Accessibility Reimagined with Liquidity), an AI-powered framework designed to replicate and decode private equity funds using liquid, cost-effective assets. Relying on previous research methods such as Erik Stafford's single stock selection (Stafford) and Thomson Reuters - Refinitiv's sector approach (TR), our approach incorporates an additional asymmetry to capture th…
We introduce a trade strategy representation theorem for performance measurement and portable alpha in high frequency trading, by embedding a robust trading algorithm that describe portfolio manager market timing behavior, in a canonical multifactor asset pricing model. First, we present a spectral test for market timing based on behavioral transformation of the hedge factors design matrix. Second, we find that the t…
We develop a liquidity-sensitive multivariate volatility framework to improve the estimation of time-varying covariance structures under market frictions. We introduce two novel portfolio-level liquidity measures, liquidity jump and liquidity diffusion, which capture magnitude and volatility of liquidity fluctuation, respectively, and construct liquidity-adjusted return and volatility that reflect real-time liquidity…
A discretionary CTA uses judgment on timing, size, and markets — often a global-macro book that happens to be futures-registered.
Catching a falling knife is buying a crashing asset because it ‘looks cheap,’ without a catalyst or a hedge — you can catch it, but you usually bleed.
Intraday Volatility — Within-day return variation informing execution timing and gamma scalping.
Time equity beta with oil’s recent move or level — a macro overlay that treats crude as a growth/inflation signal.
Time equity exposure around scheduled FOMC days — a calendar of policy-event premia, not a statement-parse.
Hold equities November–April and step aside May–October — the two-season calendar, also called the Halloween indicator.
Time global equity exposure with calendar rules (Halloween, first-half vs second-half year) rather than a fundamental forecast.
Harvest the close-to-open (overnight) equity premium, optionally gated by a sentiment filter — a timing of when the overnight edge is on.
Time the equity index with a borrow/lending-fee composite — when synthetic shorting is expensive, the tape is crowded the other way.
Be long the index around month-end / month-start and lighter mid-month — a calendar clustering of returns.
A discretionary CTA uses judgment on timing, size, and markets — often a global-macro book that happens to be futures-registered.
The risk that your trade logic is right but your realized fill, slippage, timing, or spread destroys the expected edge.
Intraday Volatility — Within-day return variation informing execution timing and gamma scalping.
Harvest the close-to-open (overnight) equity premium, optionally gated by a sentiment filter — a timing of when the overnight edge is on.