Macro Policy · Core
Hard Landing
A hard landing is a policy-induced recession — inflation (or a bubble) comes down because demand was broken.
Definition
The central bank tightens until something cracks: jobs, credit, or an asset market that funds demand. Inflation falls the ugly way. Soft-landing talk dies when claims spike.
Why it matters
Credit and earnings paths diverge from the ‘immaculate’ tape. Duration loves it after the crack; cyclicals do not.
Case
Volcker 1979–82: inflation died; unemployment did not have a soft year. That was a hard landing by design.
How to read it
What is supposed to crack (labor, CRE, HY, the consumer). If nothing is allowed to crack, you do not have a landing plan.
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