Historical Volatility
Historical Volatility — Realized return dispersion used as a benchmark versus implied.
Definition
Historical Volatility refers to realized return dispersion used as a benchmark versus implied. Keep that definition fixed when comparing series, managers, or regimes — renaming the same tape does not create a new signal.
Why it matters
Options and futures embed views on vol, skew, and path that cash markets only hint at. When realized return dispersion used as a benchmark versus implied shifts, related hedges, limits, and narratives usually need an explicit update rather than a quiet assumption.
Case
Suppose a desk is positioned for the opposite of what historical volatility is saying. If realized return dispersion used as a benchmark versus implied moves against that book, the first question is not “is the story clever?” but whether size, hedges, and stop logic still match the observation.
How to read it
State the expiry and Greek exposure; unmarked vol or pinning effects rewrite the thesis. Prefer a short written null hypothesis for Historical Volatility: what would falsify the current reading in the next window?
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